As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

We’re just getting going with a number of prominent early players making their choices known. The next week will be flooded with numerous critics groups, but more importantly, the PGA will announce their first slate of nominees for Best Documentary Feature. Preliminary Oscar voting also begins on Friday, so the season is fully upon us and it promises to be a busy one.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 2

Tuesday, Dec. 7 – San Diego Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 7 – Southeastern Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 7 – Women Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 7 – Women Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 7 – People’s Choice Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Wednesday, Dec. 8 – African American Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Dec. 8 – Australian Academy of Cinema and Televisions Arts (Awards) (Official)
Thursday, Dec. 9 – Phoenix Circle (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Dec. 10 – Chicago Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Dec. 10 – Producers Guild (Documentary) (Nominations) (Official)
Friday, Dec. 10 – Preliminary Voting Begins (Official)
Saturday, Dec. 11 – Las Vegas Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Dec. 11 – Vancouver Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Dec. 11 – European Film Awards (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – Boston Online Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – Chicago Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – Los Angeles Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – New Mexico Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – North Texas Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – Philadelphia Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – Phoenix Circle (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 12 – San Francisco Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 13 – Boston Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 13 – Critics Choice (Nominations) (Official)
Monday, Dec. 13 – Kansas City Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 13 – Oklahoma Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 13 – Phoenix Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Dec. 13 – St. Louis Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 13 – Golden Globes (Nominations) (Official)

Big Winners

Belfast from director Kenneth Branagh has been one of the more visible contenders this Oscar season. Filmed in black-and-white, several precursors have given it awards and nominations, which is a positive sign for its upcoming Oscar push. Ciaran Hinds seems to be benefiting most from the film’s strong showing, having so far won one prize for his performance.
CODA was one of the first Oscar contenders seen by the world when it premiered to acclaim at the Sundance Film Festival. Opening on the big screen in August, CODA seemed to get too far ahead of the competition and there was concern that it might ultimately end up forgotten. So far, that’s not the case with several mentions, most especially for supporting actor Troy Kotsur, who picked up the all important supporting prize from the New York Film Critics Circle. The film still has a long way to go, but the season so far suggests that it hasn’t been forgotten.
King Richard is thought to be Will Smith’s best chance at winning an Oscar for his role. The National Board of Review seemed to agree, giving him their Best Actor prize. The film has otherwise proven an able performer this year as it continues to perform above expectations, especially considering its dismal box office performance. Smith might not be alone as co-star Aunjanue Ellis is earning quite a bit of early attention for her performance as well.
The Power of the Dog is a late-breaking critical success. While it didn’t seem to have been seen by some of the earliest groups, Jane Campion’s first major Oscar contender since The Piano in 1993 has shown great potential, scoring several nominations for four of its cast members, Benedict Cumberbatch in Best Actor, Kodi-Smit McPhee and Jesse Plemons in Supporting Actor, and Kristen Dunst in Supporting Actress. That prominence isn’t limited to the glamor categories, but also the craft categories, pitting it against Belfast and Dune as one of the year’s big tech competitors.
tick, tick…BOOM! came almost out of nowhere. The Lin-Manuel Miranda-directed biopic of Rent creator Jonathan Larson has proven surprisingly successful so far. The late arrival of the film makes it feel fresh and the numerous nominations the film has received so far are a good indication that it might be a more potent player than many expected, especially for Andrew Garfield’s Best Actor campaign.
Licorice Pizza got solid reviews when it opened a few weeks ago, but National Board of Review gave it a surprise boost with the award for Best Picture. Director Paul Thomas Anderson also took the award for directing. The film was thought originally to be minor Anderson, but with positive reviews and solid support from critics in their year-end awards, it has become surprisingly viable in several categories.

Big Losers

Nightmare Alley Guillermo del Toro’s follow up to his Best Picture winner The Shape of Water made sense as a major player on paper. With a stacked cast, a film noir aesthetic and the original’s Hollywood connections, del Toro seemed on track to repeat his Shape of Water success. So far the precursors have been unimpressed, giving it attention in the craft categories, most notably Best Production Design, but turning a blind eye on it nearly everywhere else. While there were some tepid reviews out there, there were also some abjectly glowing ones as well. And you don’t include the likes of Bradley Cooper and Cate Blanchett without having a lot of potential for word-of-mouth industry support.
The Tragedy of Macbeth is the first film Joel Coen has directed without his brother Ethan and that black-and-white setting was sure to draw plenty of attention to the film. Unfortunately, not enough people have seen the film and its absence from the Oscar conversation via the early critics’ awards create some concerns. Denzel Washington seems assured of a nomination, but recent Oscar winner Frances McDormand has gotten no attention in spite of having a juicy role and other than the film’s cinematography and screenplay, it’s been struggling to gain traction so far.
The Lost Daughter It was a big hit at the Gotham Awards and the Netflix drama starring Oscar winner Olivia Colman sounded like a good bet on paper. Yet, it’s been struggling to get attention for itself outside of Colman’s performance. The limited exposure can’t be a good sign for the film’s overall chances even if Colman seems poised for another nomination.
The French Dispatch was Wes Anderson’s latest film and that alone was reason to believe it could be an Oscar contender, even if only in minor categories. It’s one of the oldest releases currently in the race, but so far it has been mostly ignored by the early critics groups. That won’t preclude it from earning nominations in some craft categories, but a repeat of The Grand Budapest Hotel doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
The Humans had a great origin. It was a Tony-winning Best Play being adapted to the big screen with a raft of Oscar nominees and theater luminaries in the cast. Richard Jenkins and Jayne Houdyshell seemed like solid bets, but the precursors so far haven’t been helpful for the film’s chances and at this late date, it’s going to need a lot of support to make even a small dent in the race.