As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

With the festival circuit having run its course, we are now in a holding pattern for precursor season. As it stands right now, this is how we feel about the Oscar race. Lots can still change in the coming months as the remaining hold outs finally get released, but for now, this is what we’re all thinking.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I have quite a few changes from my prior list, but not nearly as many as I would have expected between my first predictions in June to my second set four months later. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the releases do this year.
Peter J. Patrick: Things are becoming clearer. At this point, most of the year’s major Oscar contenders have been seen and reviewed by the critics, many of them at film festivals where paying audiences have also weighed in. Only House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story, among the year’s most eagerly anticipated films, remain to be seen by anyone.
Tripp Burton: Now that the festivals are over, and a lot of these films have been seen, things seem even more confusing. There are still some big films left to be seen, but many of the strong contenders seem pretty universally admired. This could go a lot of ways, but this is looking like another great season!
Thomas LaTourette: It is hard to believe that the film festivals are already over and we are into prime Oscar movie time. Somehow this year has gotten away from me. Early reviews make films like Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, and The Tragedy of Macbeth sound tantalizing. Dune could be one of those rare genre films that breaks through and scores more than just technical nominations, though I doubt that will carry over to the acting categories. I do wonder about films like Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, and House of Gucci. They are all coming from well respected directors, yet I have no idea if they will be any good or not. The fact that they did not play in any of the festivals is a bit worrisome. It almost is harder to predict now as we have some of the information, but not quite enough to be sure about it. Still, it is exciting to have movies coming out that I want to see, and hopefully will have the chance to see in theaters this year.

Best Picture

• Belfast New WL P PP O New TB P New TL P
• CODA WL O TL O
• Cyrano New PP P
• Don’t Look Up TB O
• Dune WL O PP O TB O New TL P
• House of Gucci WL O PP O TL O
• The Humans New WL P
• In the Heights WL O
• King Richard New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Licorice Pizza New PP P TB O New TL P
• Mass PP O TB O
• Nightmare Alley WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Power of the Dog New WL P PP O TB O TL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O TB O New TL P
• West Side Story WL O PP O TB O New TL P

Best Animated Feature

• Belle New PP O New TB O
• Encanto New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Flee New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Luca New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Mitchells vs the Machines New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Raya and the Last Dragon New WL O New TL O
• Ron’s Gone Wrong New WL O
• Vivo New WL O

Best Director

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh New WL P New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Dune – Denis Villeneuve New WL P New PP P New TL P
• King Richard – Reinaldo Marcus Green New TB P New TL P
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson TB O
• Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro PP O TB O TL O
• Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodovar New PP P
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion WL O PP O TB O New TL P
• The Tragedy of MacBeth – Joel Coen WL O
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg WL O

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley PP O TL O
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog New WL P PP O New TB P New TL P
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up TB O
• Peter Dinklage – Cyrano New PP P New TB P New TL O
• Jamie Dornan – Belfast New WL P
• Will Smith – King Richard WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Steven Yuen – The Humans New WL P

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley New TB P
• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye WL O New PP P New TL P
• Olivia Colman – The Last Daughter New TB P New TL P
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Salma Hayek – House of Gucci WL O
• Lady Gaga – House of Gucci PP O
• Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth New PP P New TL P
• Martha Plimpton – Mass New WL P
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer WL O New PP P TB O New TL P
• Tessa Thompson – Passing New WL P TB O

Best Supporting Actor

• Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza TB O TL O
• Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley TB O
• Jamie Dornan – Belfast New PP P
• Brendan Gleeson – The Tragedy of Macbeth New WL P
• Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth New TL P
• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast New WL P PP O New TL P
• Jason Isaacs – Mass New PP P New TB P
• Richard Jenkins – The Humans New WL P New TB P New TL P
• Al Pacino – House of Gucci WL O
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog New WL P PP O
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog New PP P New TB P New TL P

Best Supporting Actress

• Catriona Balfe – Belfast New PP P
• Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley WL O
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story TB O
• Judi Dench – Belfast WL O New PP P New TL P
• Ann Dowd – Mass PP O TB O New TL P
• Kristen Dunst – The Power of the Dog New WL P New PP P New TB P TL O
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans New WL P
• Lady Gaga – House of Gucci New WL P
• Marlee Matlin – CODA New TL P
• Ruth Negga – Passing TB O

Best Original Screenplay

• Belfast New WL P PP O New TB P New TL P
• C’mon, C’mon New WL P
• Don’t Look Up TB O TL O
• The French Dispatch WL O TB O
• King Ricahrd New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Licorice Pizza WL O New PP P TB O TL O
• Mass New WL P PP O
• Parallel Mothers New PP P New TL P

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA WL O TB O New TL P
• Dune PP O
• House of Gucci WL O
• The Humans New TB P
• The Lost Daughter New PP P New TB P New TL P
• Nightmare Alley WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Power of the Dog New WL P New PP P TB O TL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O New TL P
• West Side Story PP O

Best Visual Effects

• Don’t Look Up New PP O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Eternals New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Matrix Resurrections New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Nightmare Alley New WL O New TB O
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Spider-Man: No Way Home New TL O
• The Tomorrow Wars New PP O