Only Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Sound of Metal managed to overperform expectations while nearly ever other Best Picture contender managed to underperform. We have history in Directing where we have two women nominated for the first time in history. Further, respected filmmaker Thomas Vinterberg popped up in Directing pushing out Aaron Sorkin and Vinterberg continues a long tradition of directors choosing respected foreign helmers to fill out their ballots even with guilds and precursors suggesting it wasn’t likely. The big news is that there were only eight nominees for Best Picture, which is only the second such occurrence since the broadening of the category. Additionally, there are no box office hits on the list while both stage-to-screen adaptations seemed to cannibalize one another pushing each out of the running leaving Judas and the Black Messiah as the only film about the Black experience on the list. I did quite well with my selections going 5-for-5 in three of the four acting categories. While I missed One Night and Ma Rainey in Best Picture, the remainder were on my finalists list. This nomination set is very diverse, but there will no doubt be cries of discrimination in Best Picture where a full six of the eight films were centered on White people.

Special Note: I forgot to take today off work, so unfortunately, all of my updates today will be delayed. I will get everything posted as soon as I can, including our first post-nominations predictions.

Nominations Tallies

(10) Mank
(6) The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
(5) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Promising Young Woman
(4) News of the World
(3) One Night in Miami, Soul

The Nominations

Best Picture

The Father – Sony Pictures Classics (c-11/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Judas and the Black Messiah – Warner Bros. (c-2/15, n-2/15) — Borderline —
Mank – Netflix (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Good —
Minari – A24 (c-11/15, n-1/11) — Good —
Nomadland – Searchlight (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-1/11) — Lock —
Promising Young Woman – Focus (c-3/6, n-3/6) — Near Lock —
Sound of Metal – Amazon (c-1/11, n-3/13) — Borderline —
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Paramount (c-3/6, n-3/6) — Good —

Best Animated Film

Onward – Pixar (c-3/6, n-3/6) — Lock —
Over the Moon – Netflix (c-3/6, n-11/13) — Near Lock —
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Aardman (c-3/6) — Borderline —
Soul – Pixar (c-3/6, n-3/6, o-3/6) — Lock —
Wolfwalkers – Gkids (c-3/6, n-1/11) — Lock —

Best Directing

Another Round – Thomas Vinterberg (c-3/13) — Borderline —
Mank – David Fincher (c-9/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Minari – Lee Isaac Chung (c-11/15, n-1/11) — Good —
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-1/11) — Lock —
Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell (c-3/6, n-1/11) — Borderline —

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (c-1/11, n-2/15) — Lock —
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-3/6, n-11/15, o-3/13) — Lock —
Anthony Hopkins – The Father () — Lock —
Gary Oldman – Mank (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Borderline —
Steven Yeun – Minari (c-11/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —

Best Actress

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-3/6, n-3/6) — Lock —
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (c-2/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (c-11/15, n-1/11) — Good —
Frances McDormand – Nomadland (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Lock —
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (c-3/6, n-3/6, o-3/6) — Near Lock —

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-1/11, n-2/15) — Near Lock —
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (c-2/9, n-2/15, o-3/13) — Lock —
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami (c-9/15, n-11/13) — Near Lock —
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (c-1/11, n-3/13) — Borderline —
LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (c-1/11, n-1/11) — Borderline —
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (c-9/15, n-2/15) — Borderline —
Olivia Colman – The Father (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Good —
Amanda Seyfried – Mank (c-9/15, n-11/15, o-1/11) — Borderline —
Yuh-jung Youn – Minari (c-1/11, n-3/13) — Borderline —

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah – Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenneth Lucas, Keith Lucas (c-3/13) — Borderline —
Minari – Lee Isaac Chung (c-11/15, n-1/11) — Good —
Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell (c-3/6, n-9/15, o-1/11) — Near Lock —
Sound of Metal – Darius Marder, Abraham Marder (c-2/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin (c-3/6, n-3/6) — Near Lock —

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern (c-3/13) — Borderline —
The Father – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (c-11/15, n-11/15) — Lock —
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-11/13) — Lock —
One Night in Miami – Kemp Powers (c-9/15, n-1/11) — Good —
The White Tiger

Best Original Song

Fight for You – Judas and the Black Messiah (c-2/9, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Hear My Voice – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-1/11, n-1/11) — Borderline —
Husavik – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (c-1/11) — Borderline —
Io Si (Seen) – The Life Ahead (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
Speak Now – One Night in Miami (c-1/11, n-1/11, o-1/11) — Near Lock —

Best Original Score

Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard (c-1/11) — Borderline —
Mank – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Near Lock —
Minari – Emile Mosseri (c-1/11, n-3/13) — Borderline —
News of the World – James Newton Howard (c-3/6, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jonathan Batiste (c-3/6, n-11/13, o-3/13) — Near Lock —

Best Film Editing

The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos (c-1/11) — Borderline —
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao (c-9/15, n-1/11) — Good —
Promising Young Woman – Frederic Thoraval (c-3/6, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Sound of Metal – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen (c-1/11, n-3/13) — Borderline —
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten (c-3/6, n-9/15, o-1/11) — Near Lock —

Best Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank – Erik Messerschmidt (c-9/15, n-11/13) — Near Lock —
News of the World – Dariusz Wolski (c-3/6, n-2/15) — Good —
Nomadland – Joshua James Richards (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-1/11) — Lock —
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael (c-3/6) — Borderline —

Best Production Design

The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mark Ricker; Karen O’Hara, Diana Stoughton (c-9/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Mank – Donald Graham Burt; Jan Pascale (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-11/13) — Near Lock —
News of the World – David Crank; Elizabeth Keenan (c-3/6, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Tenet – Nathan Crowley; Emmanuel Dells, Kathy Lucas (c-3/6, n-3/13) — Borderline —

Best Costume Design

Emma. – Alexandra Byrne (c-3/6, n-3/6) — Near Lock —
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-11/13) — Near Lock —
Mank – Trish Summerville (c-9/15, n-11/13) — Borderline —
Mulan – Bina Daigeler (c-3/6) — Borderline —
Pinocchio

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Emma. (c-1/11) — Borderline —
Hillbilly Elegy (c-2/9, n-3/13) — Good —
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-11/13) — Near Lock —
Mank (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Borderline —
Pinocchio (c-2/9, n-3/13) — Borderline —

Best Sound

Greyhound (c-1/11) — Borderline —
Mank (c-9/15, n-3/13) — Borderline —
News of the World (c-3/6) — Borderline —
Soul (c-3/6, n-1/11) — Good —
Sound of Metal (c-2/16, n-2/16, o-3/13) — Near Lock —

Best Visual Effects

Love and Monsters (c-2/9) — Doubtful —
The Midnight Sky (c-1/11, n-1/11) — Borderline —
Mulan (c-3/6, n-9/15) — Borderline —
The One and Only Ivan (c-2/9) — Borderline —
Tenet (c-3/6, n-3/6, o-11/13) — Near Lock —

Best International Feature

Another Round – Denmark (c-1/28, n-1/29, o-1/29) — Near Lock —
Better Days – Hong Kong (c-1/28) — Doubtful —
Collective – Romania (c-1/28, n-2/9) — Borderline —
The Man Who Sold His Skin – Tunisia (c-1/28) — Doubtful —
Quo Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina (c-1/28, n-3/13) — Borderline —

Best Documentary Feature

Collective (c-1/28, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Crip Camp (c-1/28) — Borderline —
The Mole Agent (c-1/28) — Doubtful —
My Octopus Teacher (c-1/28, n-3/13) — Borderline —
Time (c-1/28, n-2/9) — Borderline —

Best Documentary Short Subject

Colette (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
A Concerto Is a Conversation (c-2/9, n-2/9, o-2/9) — Borderline —
Do Not Split (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
Hunger Ward (c-2/9) — Borderline —
A Love Song for Latasha (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —

Best Animated Short Film

Burrow (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
Genius Loci (c-2/9) — Borderline —
If Anything Happens I Love You (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
Opera (c-2/9) — Borderline —
Yes-People (c-2/9) — Borderline —

Best Live Action Short Film

Feeling Through (c-2/9, n-2/9, o-2/9) — Borderline —
The Letter Room (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
The Present (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —
Two Distant Strangers (c-2/9) — Borderline —
White Eye (c-2/9, n-2/9) — Borderline —