First off, I wanted to thank Peter for the great hypothetical Oscar scenarios he has been running on this board. They have been fun to read, and really have helped put this major change in retrospect for me.

The talk on other blogs I have come across the past week is the fact that bloggers seem to consider District 9 a strong contender for Best Picture (or at least a film that will be in the running). I guess it had an Academy screening last week that led to wild applause, which triggered all this talk. Before we move on, I should say I have yet to see the movie, so I am writing this purely from the outside looking in. If I misspeak about the film, I apologize.

I said this earlier, but it seems to bear repeating that a change in rules does not beckon a change in taste for the Academy. A lot of this District 9 talk (just like the Star Trek talk earlier this summer) comes from the fact that with 10 slots, surely a film this wonderful can break into the field. This belief is becoming more and more widespread, particularly among film bloggers and specifically non-Oscar bloggers, and I fear that this is going to lead to some very disappointed fans out there.

The first reason for this is that the strong combination of box office success and critical praise has never been a key to a Best Picture nomination. It certainly helps, and most strong Best Picture candidates have the combination, but anyone watching last years awards show know that when the two most critically hailed movies of the year were box office bonanzas (The Dark Knight and Wall-E), that doesn’t mean the Academy will fall head over heels for them. Granted, this rule change was trying to fix that, but I will believe it when I see it.

The second reason is that there are still genres that the Academy won’t touch. Science fiction is one of those. By my count, only two science fiction films have ever been nominated for Best Picture: Star Wars and E.T. These were cinema-changing films that also were the highest grossing film of all time when they came out. In order to be taken seriously by the Academy, they had to prove that they were films worthy of the test of time. They were instant classics. I don’t see those type of films coming back anytime soon.