Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

July 3, 2020

The Outpost (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Released day-and-date, this Rod Lurie-directed film was intended for release on a different July date, but whether or not it succeeds depends on how many streaming viewers take away from its theatrical haul.”
Thoughts: Streamed on Amazon, skipping theaters.

The Truth (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s the kind of film that used to do decently on the arthouse circuit, but that circuit has been hit hard by the pandemic, so it’s uncertain that it can do much in the way of business.”
Box Office Results: $9.619 K
Thoughts: [Flop] This was the first month with an adequate attempt to get people into theaters. It did not succeed with a tally that can be numbered in the teens, not the hundreds of thousands. The indie sector was much harder hit since it tended to be supported by people who took the pandemic seriously.

July 17, 2020

The Painted Bird (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Likely None. The film was already in contention for Foreign Language Film this year, I doubt it can make it beyond that failured consideration.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While it was an Oscar contender, it ultimately didn’t go anywhere and the film isn’t likely to draw audiences to the arthouse in a pandemic.”
Box Office Results: $1.46 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Doing even worse than The Truth, this film was an Oscar contender for a Best Foreign Language film citation, which it didn’t get. That means it was always going to struggle even if it was critically acclaimed. The pandemic just made the disappointment worse.

July 31, 2020

The Informer

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This film has been bounced around the release calendar like the spheres in a ball pit. It’s very surprising that the studio didn’t decide to take a write-down and push this to a streaming release. Whatever the reason, it has no competition (right now), but it’s not the kind of counter-programming that typically does well at the box office anyway.”
Thoughts: Postponed to November.