Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

August 2, 2019

Hobbs & Shaw

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The Fast and Furious films have become reliable box office draws, regularly topping $200 million. With Vin Diesel and Dwayne Johnson on the outs, this new film has pulled Johnson and Jason Statham into their own buddy film and the prospects, being pulled away from the original “family,” are a bit weaker. That said, I could expect it to top this number easily if it pulls those fans to the theater.”
Box Office Results: $173.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] This franchise never ceases to pull in big bucks even if the film wasn’t quite the juggernaut the mainline films have been.

August 9, 2019

The Art of Racing in the Rain

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. Ever since director Simon Curtis made an Oscar splash with his first film, My Week with Marilyn, his name has come up consistently for Oscar consideration. His second and third films (Woman in Gold and Goodbye Christopher Robin respectively), however, have failed to ignite passion in the Academy and have gone home empty-handed. The weird concept here might make it an audience pleaser, but Oscar voters won’t be part of that audience.”
Oscar Results: Failure. With its box office flop status and lack of strong reviews, the film faded fast.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. If the film’s any good and audiences want something different to check out in the hot summer months, this film could do quite well. However, the August release date suggests the studio isn’t that confident in the film and against two other major releases, it may not have a lot of hope.”
Box Office Results: $26.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Without strong reviews, not even having a star of a popular television series can bring audiences to the box office.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Dora as a character was once a popular mainstay of children’s television. However, it’s been four years since the show was in production and many of the show’s fans have long since grown up. While new kids might have become interested, the chances that this film manages to perform beyond expectations are limited. Then again, the closest comparison I can come up with Spy Kids did well with audiences in spite of not being an adaptation, so the chances are still there.”
Box Office Results: $60.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The character still has some fans, but not many. This is what accounted for its decent box office total, but lack of blockbuster status.

The Kitchen

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Writer Andrea Berloff (Straight Outta Compton) takes her first round in the director’s chair in this urban crime drama that has shades of Scorsese. If the film ends up being better than its August berth would suggest, it could be an Oscar player; however, signs don’t point toward that conclusion, though any of its stars (Elisabeth Moss, Melissa McCarty, or Tiffany Haddish) could still be taken seriously.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Much like Widows before it, The Kitchen might have come closer to Oscar contention were it better supported by audiences.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While not quite in the vein of last year’s Widows, this upheaval of gender-based genre norms hopes to succeed where that atypical heist film did not. Crime films are a bit less popular with audiences these days than they were in the 1970s, so it’s probable that the film is unable to ignite with audiences, but we’ll have to see.”
Box Office Results: $12.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] With stars like these, the film should have done much better than it did. The subject matter apparently just wasn’t appealing enough to wide audiences.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s targeting teens, which could bolster its chances if they can be bothered to go out.”
Box Office Results: $68.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] A horror film in August will struggle for attention and that’s what happened with this film. While its tally is fairly good, it could have been so much more successful releasing two months later.

August 16, 2019

47 Meters Down: Uncaged

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film made a scant $44 million at the box office. That doesn’t really justify a sequel, but here we are.”
Box Office Results: $22.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Sequels have been struggling for years, but the appeal of the prior film didn’t seem present in the trailers for the second, which might have contributed to its failure.

The Angry Birds Movie 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While I doubt it comes close to the first film’s $107 million, it should still do well enough for a mid-August release.”
Box Office Results: $41.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Another sequel that failed to live up to expectations. Unlike the first film, this one didn’t get the same level of reviews and people already seemed to be tiring of the property when the first film came out.

Blinded by the Light

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. If Yesterday can top $50 million on mediocre reviews, this one can top that with better reviews.”
Box Office Results: $11.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It should have been more successful than it was, but unlike Beatles music, Springsteen music cannot apparently overcome all things.

Good Boys

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s been awhile since we had a solid R-rated comedy to spend the August doldrums with and this film looks like it could make a good amount of money.”
Box Office Results: $83.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A good raunchy comedy will always draw people to the theater and while this didn’t quite live up to its potential, it’s still a strong performance, the second best for the entire month.

Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Above Average. Richard Linklater has had an even relationship with the Academy. While his Before Sunrise trilogy barely broke through in the writing categories (for the latter two films anyway), his only Oscar run came with Boyhood, a gimmick film that actually worked. He hasn’t produced anything Oscar capable since (or really before), so his chances are limited, though star Cate Blanchett could certainly be in play.”
Oscar Results: Failure. Cate Blanchett got a minor bit of chatter, but it was the film being minor that kept it from going anywhere.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Cate Blanchett has been in a lot of popular films, but her presence is hardly a box office guarantee.”
Box Office Results: $9.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] This director has had an inconsistent run at the box office and while this was based on a popular book with a familiar lead, it still managed to do little to nothing at the box office.

August 23, 2019

Angel Has Fallen

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Gerard Butler has finally found box office success. The first film made $98.9 million. The second film, however, had a steep drop-off to $62.5 million. I suspect that since the second film was set in the UK and the first was in the US that this new film should do a bit better than London Has Fallen.”
Box Office Results: $69 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Surprisingly, in spite of the not terribly impressive numbers, this is on par with the second film in the series, which wasn’t a huge success either, but performed well enough for a trilogy.

Ready or Not

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The concept is inventive, which could be catnip to horror fans looking for something fresh to sink their teeth into.”
Box Office Results: $28.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For an indie horror film that went wide, this tally isn’t as impressive as it should be, but for a film that started on a limited release, it’s not bad.