For our fifth Rundown article, we look at the supporting women. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover the male counterpart.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
• Florence Pugh – Little Women
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Runner-Up Predictions

• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: With all of the televised awards under her belt, Laura Dern is probably unstoppable. If not her, then whoever wins at BAFTA (possibly Florene Pugh) could become the new frontrunner. Prior nominee Margot Robbie could also win, as could double-nominee Scarlett Johansson. All of them are doubtful, but we have to contemplate the possibility.
Peter J. Patrick: It can be boring as hell when the same actors win the year-end awards over and over, but it can also be exhilarating – an affirmation of what everyone, or practically everyone, considers the best. This is one of those years. Laura Dern’s “hate the character, love the portrayal” of the proverbial nasty lawyer is an acting treasure. She deserves to win, and she will. AMPAS won’t choose anyone else, but if they did it might well be Scarlett Johansson, who after nearly two decades of being ignored, has two acting nominations this year. Her lovely portrayal of the mother of the precocious ten-year-old in Jojo Rabbit is the kind of sweet role that might win if Dern’s performance hadn’t been so pitch-perfect.
Tripp Burton: The always popular in Hollywood Laura Dern seems like a lock in this category, both in recognition for a great year and a career of dedication to the community. If she loses, it is probably only because Scarlett Johansson’s double nominations want to be rewarded somehow.
Thomas La Tourrette: Laura Dern is the only name that can possibly be read. No one else stands a chance this year. Dern has dominated the category, and when her only major competition, Jennifer Lopez, was not nominated, it assured her of the win. She is good as the cutthroat attorney, but I would not have predicted her to be so dominant. With a long career under her belt and two previous Oscar nominations, it is perhaps partially a career award. I do not begrudge her the award, and truthfully did not think that Lopez was that good in Hustlers to be deserving of an award for it. At one point I thought that Margot Robbie with two impressive performances this year stood a chance of winning for one of them, but she will have to wait another year. Kathy Bates is good as always in Richard Jewell, but I do not see her having any chance of winning. Florence Pugh might pull off a stunning upset, but the love for Little Women just does not seem to exist, no matter how well reviewed and liked it is by audiences. That leaves Scarlett Johansson, who is up for two acting Oscars. The first few times this happened, the performer always won for their supporting role. That no longer is the case and several have gone home without an award, and I think that is likely to happen again. Scarlett will also have to wait for another year. Dern easily wins.

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