Since the creation of the SAG awards in 1995, there is a trend where if a film wins at SAG, PGA, and DGA, the chance of winning the Oscar skyrockets. In those fifteen years where they didn’t align, seven of those years saw the PGA winner also take the Oscar for Best Picture. So, this is the group that can forecast trends such as Green Book last year, The Shape of Water the year before.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker (RU:Tripp)
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Parasite

Wesley Lovell: If any film wants to win the Oscar, this is the place it really needs to shine. In 15 of the last 24 contests, the PGA winner was also the Oscar winner. 1917 is the kind of big production that exceeds expectations at the box office and impresses producers most. It’s the kind of film they want to make. In the last 24 years, only two war films have won this prize and one of those (The Hurt Locker) barely qualifies. There are a lot of men in the PGA and that could bolster Joker‘s chances and those who look back on the halcyon days of old Hollywood might favor Once Upon a Time. A case could honestly be made for any of these films plus Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, and The Irishman. It’s a tight race, but I’m leaning towards the film that is making a late break for the finish line.
Peter J. Patrick: My guess is they will ignore The Irishman because of Netflix and go for a wide release. This is where we will know if 1917 has legs. If not, expect Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood to persevere.
Tripp Burton: To be honest, I have no idea how this is going to go. This season is confusing, and this will be the first sign of how voters are thinking. My hunch is that the recent success of 1917 will continue here, but either Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood or Joker could win here too.
Thomas LaTourette: This is a difficult one to predict. Joker and Parasite both seem too edgy for the PGA. I wonder if there is still a bias against films released by Netflix that mainly play on television rather than in cinemas, which may bias them against The Irishman and Marriage Story. Some of the others may not have done well enough financially to go on to win. So I think it will come down to either 1917 or Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. Once Upon a Time did respectably at the box office, and is about Hollywood, which probably goes over well with this group. 1917 has just been released, but did knock Star Wars out of the number one position last weekend. If guild members had held off returning their ballots until after those numbers were released, I think they might go for 1917. Both won Golden Globes, but I will give the edge to 1917.

Best Animated Feature

Abominable
Frozen II (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (RU:Wesley)
Missing Link (RU:Tripp)
Toy Story 4 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Only three of these films were nominated for the Oscar, so you can toss out Abominable and Frozen II, even though the latter made a mint at the box office. Of the remaining three, Missing Link made too little, leaving the contest between Toy Story 4 and How to Train Your Dragon 3. The former was also a big box office hit while the latter made good money, but underperformed. That gives the edge to Toy Story 4, which also happens to be the Oscar frontrunner.
Peter J. Patrick: I expect an endorsement of either Toy Story 4 or the Oscar-snubbed Frozen II to prevail here.
Tripp Burton: Does the commercial smash Toy Story 4 win, or does Missing Link pick up another underdog win? I don’t know, but this is a closer race than some of us may have thought a few weeks ago.
Thomas LaTourette: Even though Frozen II is the highest grossing animated film of all time (editor’s note: not domestically or if adjusting for inflation), which the PGA will definitely be aware of, I think it will go to Toy Story 4. Both movies grossed over $430,000,000 domestically and over one billion internationally. It may come down to sentiment, and Toy Story just has more of that going for it.

Best Documentary

Advocate
American Factory (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Apollo 11 (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
The Cave
For Sama (RU:Peter)
Honeyland
One Child Nation (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Four of these titles are nominated the Oscars. Apollo 11 was shockingly ignored by the Academy, though it remains in the race here considering the numerous awards it’s already won. American Factory, being the most likely to carry over to the Oscars, is where I’m predicting, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see almost anything else here, except maybe Advocate.
Peter J. Patrick: This is where they are more likely to vote for a Netflix release with American Factory a good bet. An upset winner might be double-BAFTA nominee For Sama.
Tripp Burton: This branch tends to give awards to the big box office champs, even after they lose Oscar nominations, so Apollo 11 should still win here.
Thomas LaTourette: There may be seven nominees, but it will come down to either Apollo 11 or American Factory. The former is created from found footage, which may be why it was not Oscar-nominated. But it is an exciting film and did well in its theatrical release. American Factory is produced by the company the Obamas set up, and has gotten good notices. I still think it will go to Apollo because the PGA is aware of how films do at the box office. It was also very well done.