For our fourth Rundown article, we look at the documentary awards. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature and Best Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover Best Supporting Actress.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• American Factory (WL O)(TL O)
• The Cave
• The Edge of Democracy
• For Sama (PP O) (TB R) [New]
• Honeyland

Runner-Up Predictions

• American Factory (TB R) [New]
• The Cave (WL O)
• Honeyland (PP O)(TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: With Apollo 11, the most honored documentary of the year, missing from this list, it leaves everything wide open. American Factory, which has also been widely recognized is probably the best bet to take over, but any of the others could compete.
Peter J. Patrick: For Sama is a heartbreaking documentary/narrative film about the Syrian Civil War seen from the inside. It’s been nominated for BAFTAs in three categories – Best Foreign Language Film and Best British Film in addition to Best Documentary. Oscar only nominated it in the Documentary category but that doesn’t mean Academy voters will appreciate it any less than their counterparts across the pond. Honeyland, which AMPAS nominated for Best International Film (from North Macedonia) as well as Best Documentary, is about more than bees, it is about life itself and is almost as good as For Sama, but I think the topical For Sama will prevail.
Tripp Burton: Because many films that would be a frontrunner were left off the nomination list, this is a wide-open category. The intimate portrait of For Sama feels like a frontrunner, but it has a lot of competition. The inclusion of the Obamas could boost American Factory, as could the double nomination of Honeyland. And don’t discount The Cave, whose filmmakers lost here only a few years ago.
Thomas La Tourrette: After the surprising and sad omission of Apollo 11, American Factory became the front runner. It is an interesting tale of a factory taken over by a Chinese company and some of the culture shock that occurs on both sides. Being produced by a company the Obamas started won’t hurt its chances of winning either. The Edge of Democracy shows the downfall of two Brazilian presidents and the political machinations that brought this about. It is good and sobering, though perhaps a little longer than necessary. Both The Cave and For Sama deal with the Syrian crisis, and that could hinder either from winning. Sama deals with a family in Aleppo just trying to outlast the regime. It is harrowing and personal. I have not seen The Cave yet, but it also follows a doctor in that war-torn country. Honeyland is about a North Macedonian beekeeper and shows her difficult life. The movie was nominated both as a documentary and as best international film, a first, which shows its support from the academy. I do not think it will win either award, but it stands a better chance here. Still, it will be difficult to best American Factory.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• In the Absence
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Life Overtakes Me
• St. Louis Superman (TB R) [New]
• Walk Run Cha-Cha

Runner-Up Predictions

• In the Absence (TL R) [New]
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (TB O)
• Life Overtakes Me (PP O)
• Walk Run Cha-Cha (WL O)

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Wesley Lovell: The one with the most political importance of the group is Learning to Skateboard and it has a strong chance of winning, though any of the others are possible. Since they aren’t all available to view as yet, we won’t know for certain which is more likely, so this might come down to the wire first.
Peter J. Patrick: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone is a heartrending look at the behind-the-doors schooling of young girls in Afghanistan. Life Overtakes Me is about mysterious illnesses afflicting refugee children in Norway. Both are topical and meaningful but the more heavily promoted Skateboard seems the more likely winner.
Tripp Burton: Nothing in this category screams automatic winner right off the bat, meaning this could be an interesting competition. I’m thinking the heartwarming wins out this year, either from St. Louis Superman or Learning to Skateboard, although Walk Run Cha Cha is a dark horse here.
Thomas La Tourrette: The academy has a penchant for feel good documentaries in this category, so I expect the uplifting Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone to win. Afghanistan is a difficult place to be a woman and this shows a school that teaches girls and gives them self-confidence through skateboarding. It is easy to like. I have not seen two of the others yet, and the other two are quite depressing. Life Overtakes Me is about refugee children in Sweden who fall into comas. While many of them eventually come out of them after months, it is difficult to watch. In the Absence follows a ferry disaster in South Korea and shows what can happen when no one takes charge but instead waits for orders from above. It is heart wrenching and would be a worthy winner but I think Learning to Skateboard will take home the Oscar.

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