Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

September 6, 2019

It Chapter Two

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first film made more than $327 million at the box office, it’s certain the final chapter will also make a good amount of money.”
Box Office Results: $211.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] It was to be expected that a sequel to a massive blockbuster would perform less impressively than its predecessor and that is certainly true of the follow up to the 2017 mega-hit It, which pulled in $327 million at the box office while its follow up pulled in more than $100 million less. It’s still a success, but not the major success the studio had hoped for.

September 13, 2019

The Goldfinch

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This popular and acclaimed novel has all the prospects to become a major Oscar contender with one exception. It’s releasing in September, which is one of the worst month of the last four to release an Oscar contender.”
Oscar Results: Now None. With the box office flop and the terrible reviews, this film went from good possibility to none faster that almost any other Oscar contender in recent memory.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s a well known novel, but will audiences want to watch it in the theater? I’m doubtful.”
Box Office Results: $5.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Torpedoed by the terrible reviews, one of the most acclaimed books of the last half century was turned into a confusing mess and audiences just weren’t that enthused with seeing it.

Hustlers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Now Uncertain. The film was a surprise success with critics and did great box office. With its prestige increased, Jennifer Lopez is within striking distance of an Oscar nomination even if the film doesn’t show up anywhere else.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The cast might be worth predicting a decent return, but the premise doesn’t sound as exciting as it might on paper, so I’m dubious about its Oscar prospects.”
Box Office Results: $104.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] The stellar reviews helped bolster this film’s fortunes at the box office, topping $100 million. This indie sensation tapped into a cultural zeitgeist to become a success.

September 20, 2019

Ad Astra

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. James Gray has been bubbling under for Oscar consideration, but considering how Disney is treating the film’s release, I suspect it won’t get much in the way of Oscar attention.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. While the film had originally been though to be a major contender thanks to its solid reviews, its mediocre box office didn’t help the film any. It’s still a contender, but only in the craft categories of Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This could be another title Disney sabotages so that it looks like Fox’s slate was doomed and only it can resuscitate it. Then again, science-fiction that’s good may generate solid word of mouth.”
Box Office Results: $50.2 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Cerebral science ficiton has done well at the box office in the past, but with a director not known for making crowd-pleasing entertainment, it’s no surprise that the film was a tough sell, even to those who turned out for the equally-tough sell that was Arrival.

Rambo: Last Blood

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Although it seems like there have been more, there have only been four prior Rambo films. The first, titled First Blood made $47 million in 1982, equivalent to $144 million today. The second film made considerably more, pulling in $150 million in 1985, adjusted for inflation to $381 million. The third film made only $53million in 1988, which translates to a much lower $117 million. When Sylvester Stallone tried rebooting the character in 2008, the box office was anemic scoring $42 million at the box office, inflating to $53million. 11 years later, can the “Last Blood” improve on those numbers? I’m doubtful, but there isn’t much else in terms of competition, so it might be a hit.”
Box Office Results: $44.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Another failure for Sylvester Stallone. His own attempts to relive his younger days have largely been failures. The only success has been Creed and he was only a part of the reaosn for that film’s success.

Downton Abbey (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It’s possible the film’s costume design and production design might have Oscar potential, but the familiar costumes of the TV series might not be too impressive, even with new designs in the offing.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. The film was a box office hit, but that doesn’t improve its chances at the Oscars. While the Academy isn’t particular fond of adaptations of television programs, the creative categories where this film was always likely to compete remain possible, including Costume Design and Production Design with Makeup & Hairstyling a distant possibility.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The television series was hugely popular, but it was free to watch. This is a big screen feature that will cost money to see. I don’t have much expectation that it will justify its own existence.”
Box Office Results: $96.6 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Success] Clearly there is much love for the PBS television series because people turned out in droves to the film, making it a surprise hit at the box office to nearly $100 million in receipts.

September 27, 2019

Abominable

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Not many animated films this year have suitably impressed critics, suggesting that a strong showing of reviews might give this film a chance to break into the race.”
Oscar Results: Now Uncertain. The reviews for the film were generally positive, but in a competition like Animated Feature, that’s not a great place to be. DreamWorks will likely fall back on How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World as its strongest contender for a nomination, but that would be a shame.
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There haven’t been a lot of animated films out there for consumers to eat up and this adorable-looking film should nicely fill the gap ahead of Disney’s late-year release of Frozen II.”
Box Office Results: $60 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Flop] Poorly promoted, this DreamWorks animated film is sweet and compassionate and has a heart bigger than most animated films. Yet, the film didn’t manage to pull in much at all proving that promotion is imiportant even for animated films.

Judy (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Renee Zellweger is certainly a player in this year’s Oscar race and if the film’s any good, it could also be a competitor.”
Oscar Results: Now Excellent. While the film itself has received middle-of-the-road reviews, Renée Zellweger has received near universal acclaim and it would be a great shock if she weren’t nominated for Best Actress and her chances at a win are high.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s being released on a limited number of screens, which won’t give it much room to grow and the subject matter might not be the kind of thing audiences in smaller markets will be interested in.”
Box Office Results: $23.9 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For an indie drama about the latter years of Judy Garland’s life, the money the film made at the box office is impressive. It never went wide, but could still do so if it’s nominated for Best Actress.