We had four films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Ford v Ferrari

In spite of delivering several well reviewed films, James Mangold has only had one film in the Best Picture race: Walk the Line. That film picked up five nominations and won the Oscar for Best Actress (Reese Witherspoon). Now, he has a genuine opportunity to make the Best Picture slate even if, like Walk the Line, he doesn’t end up nominated for directing.

Ford v Ferrari is Mangold’s 11th feature directorial effort. He’s earned Oscar nominations for five of them. Two of those even managed to win an Oscar including the aforementioned Walk the Line and Girl, Interrupted, which won for Best Supporting Actress (Angelina Jolie).

Although Mangold has only received one nomination for his own efforts, Best Adapted Screenplay for Logan two years ago, Ford v Ferrari isn’t like to personally earn him any nominations. The film is contending primarily in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing. It could conceivably enter the races for Original Score, Production Design, Cinematography, and Original Screenplay, but that would require far bigger Best Picture buzz than it currently has.

The Good Liar

Once a regular attendee of the Oscars, going so far as to even produce the 81st Academy Awards, Bill Condon hasn’t had a contender in the Oscar race since Dreamgirls in 2006. The Fifth Estate, Mr. Holmes, and the Beauty and the Beast live-action remake all had Oscar potential on paper, but their releases were met with unimpressive reviews and although Beauty managed two Oscar nominations, the film itself was nowhere near the Oscar juggernaut of its predecessor or Condon’s prior work.

Condon received the Oscar for his screenplay to Gods and Monsters, which also earned nominations for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress for stars Ian McKellen and Lynn Redgrave. McKellen should have won the Oscar that year, but that was also the year of the shenanigan-happy Roberto Benigni. Six years later, Condon was again in the conversation for Kinsey. Laura Linney ended up the only nominee for the film in spite of strong reviews.

Then Dreamgirls arrived, his first foray into musical adaptations. The film earned a sizable eight Oscar nominations (including three for Best Original Song), but failed to score in either Best Picture or Best Directing. This was prior to the Best Picture expansion or the film would surely have made it. That film won two Oscars for Sound Mixing and Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Hudson.

Unfortunately, everything is pointing towards the film going home without any Oscar nominations, following his post-Dreamgirls trend. While it isn’t competing in many categories, McKellen and Helen Mirren are still in the competition for their performances, but they face stiff competition, which will likely result in their absence.

The Report

Screenwriter Scott Z. Burns tackles the infamous torture report in his first directorial effort since the largely forgotten Pu-239 from 2006. Focusing on his screenwriting, Amazon selected him to film the screenplay he wrote for The Report.

Starring Adam Driver with a supporting turn by Annette Bening, the film has earned solid reviews, especially for its performances, screenplay, and editing. The subject matter is even rather relevant today even though it would have been more relevant a decade ago. That said, the film hasn’t quite built a major contender’s Oscar buzz, instead the aforementioned elements seem to be where it has the most potential.

Best Picture is probably out of its reach and Driver is currently in the race for a different film (Marriage Story), so I wouldn’t expect to see either of those. Perennial favorite Bening is the film’s best chance at a nomination and could even be the role that finally wins her an Oscar. Original Screenplay is also a potential nomination, as is Film Editing. However, since it’s not really in the competition for Best Picture, Film Editing is a longshot. Still, two nominations wouldn’t be bad all things considered.

Waves

One of the major Oscar players to emerge out of Telluride and Toronto festivals this year, Waves is playing similarly to how Moonlight played three years ago, quietly amassing acclaim and slowly entering the Oscar consciousness, possibly at the right time to strike.

The film, about events in the lives of a suburban black family, has earned raves reviews. Trey Edward Shults wrote and directed the film that has a 90% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 grade at Meta Critic. The film has just enough buzz to situate itself in the race for Picture, Directing, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and all of the acting races with Sterling K. Brown and Renee Elise Goldsberry as the most likely nominees.

Whether the film can navigate the Oscar race with any success remains to be seen, but the potential is there and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pick up several nominations, including a few surprise inclusions.