For our sixth Rundown article, we look at the supporting ladies. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover the shortest films to compete at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Amy Adams – Vice
• Marina de Tavira – Roma
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Emma Stone – The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Runner-Up Predictions

• Amy Adams – Vice (WL O)(TL O)
• Marina de Tavira – Roma (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: With the critics’ frontrunner sitting out most of the televised awards, Regina King has had to coast to victory on conversation alone. Yet, giving her a boost is that none of her chief competitors, Amy Adams, Emma Stone, or Rachel Weisz have done much in the way of competing. One of them could win BAFTA and alter the race, but right now, that doesn’t seem likely.
Peter J. Patrick: With Claire Foy in First Man and Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased out of the running and Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk the only one of the three strong American mothers in the race, she has this in the bag. If there is an upset, Mexican mother Marina de Tavira in Roma has as good a chance as any of the nominees.
Tripp Burton: Regina King is being touted as the front-runner here, but without BAFTA or SAG nominations, it seems to me like she would be a weak front-runner. This is less that she is in the race but more like she doesn’t seem to have any formidable competition. Her best competition might be Amy Adams, but if people were really clambering to give her an award, wouldn’t she have won at SAG? Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are previous winners, with Stone just winning two years ago, who don’t seem poised to win again. If anyone beats King, I’m going on a limb and saying that it would be Marina de Tavira, who there is no precedent for predicting except Roma is proving to be very popular and Alfonso Cuaron is really pushing her.
Thomas La Tourrette: Regina King seems to have a lock on this award, though I am not sure why. She was good in Beale Street, though her co-nominees were just as good. Even the fact that she did not get a SAG or a BAFTA nomination has not slowed down her trajectory. Because of her dominance in the category, I expected to be blown away by her performance, and I found her good but not amazing. Still, she looks to win. I thought for a while that Amy Adams might finally win an Oscar, but since she could not win the SAG even without the presence of King she stands little chance now. Former winners Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz both from The Favourite might have stood a better chance of a second Oscar if either had been the sole nominee, but they will probably knock each other out of the running. With the showier role, Weisz might stand a bit more chance of an upset, but I doubt it will happen. Marina de Tavira from Roma really has no chance. Look for King to win fairly easily.

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