For our fourth Rundown article, we look at a category that has had many winners and not a single one of them have been from the United States. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Foreign Language Film as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the first of the Big Six categories, one that only permits men, specifically those with less to do than most of the other actors in the film.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Capernaum
• Cold War
• Never Look Away
• Roma (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Shoplifters

Runner-Up Predictions

• Cold War (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: There’s little doubt in my mind that Roma will run away with this prize. There are only two scenarios I could see where it loses: everyone thinks it’s a slam dunk and votes for something else (Cold War maybe?) or if voters decide they’ll award the film Best Picture instead and give someone else a chance here. Neither of those scenarios seems particularly likely.
Peter J. Patrick: The question here is whether voters will want to give Mexico’s Roma awards for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Film or just one and not the other. If they decide to go for Best Picture and throw the Foreign Language award to another film, Poland’s highly admired Cold War is the likely beneficiary.
Tripp Burton: This is Roma’s to lose, although voters also really seem to like Cold War, and if they think they’ve given Roma enough, they could throw this award towards Poland.
Thomas La Tourrette: Roma does seem to have this locked up, and it is hard to picture any of the other films taking its place. It has three times the precursor wins of all the other foreign language films combined. So far my favorite of all of them that I have seen is the Japanese film Shoplifters, but I do not think it has a chance. Capernaum and Never Look Back have yet to open in Denver, so I do not have much to say about them yet, though they will have opened by Oscar night. Cold War will be Roma’s most serious competition, but the Polish film stands little chance either. Look for Roma to triumph.

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