As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Tomorrow morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will announce the 91st list of nominations for their annual awards. As always, we’ve taken a stab at this year’s slate and we’ll know for certain how close we are tomorrow, but for nowhere are our current and final predictions for the Oscars.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: This has been an incredibly difficult year to predict. Most of the races have a few main contenders, then a bunch of secondary contenders, all of which have solid claims on the nomination, making it more difficult to make final decisions. Hopefully, I have the right of it, but in more than one race, I’m hoping that I’m wrong about the outcome.
Peter J. Patrick: In a year in which the Best Foreign Language Film contenders seem stronger than the Best Picture contenders, it’s possible that we will see the first foreign language film to win both categories. The best picture line-up will most likely include both box office hits like Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star Is Born and less successful, albeit critically acclaimed films like If Beale Street Could Talk and Green Book. Less certain are anticipated hit films that failed to find receptive audiences of which First Man is the one to keep a watch our for.
Tripp Burton: This is a year with a lot of question marks, and those can sometimes leave us boring lineups or some big surprises (see 2012). I think we are going to be shocked on Tuesday, but I’m not sure what is going to shock us.
Thomas LaTourette: It is hard to believe it is already that time of year again. Somehow it feels like it really snuck up on me this year. 2018 did not seem as big a year for films as some have, or perhaps I was just not that fond of some of the big frontrunners. As often happens when making predictions, I feel good about the first few, then it gets more difficult to bring it down to five. Certain nominations feel pretty set, but some categories are still pretty much up in the air. I will be curious to see how close I am to the final slate, but, at this point, here are my best predictions.

Best Picture

• (37) Roma WL 9 P PP 10 P TB 8 O TL 10 A
• (32) Green Book WL 10 P PP 9 P TB 6 P TL 7 N
• (32) A Star Is Born WL 7 P PP 6 A TB 10 O TL 9 O
• (30) BlacKkKlansman WL 6 O PP 7 O TB 9 O TL 8 O
• (24) The Favourite WL 8 N PP 5 P TB 7 N TL 4 O
• (19) Bohemian Rhapsody New WL 4 F New PP 8 F New TB 4 F New TL 3 F
• (17) Black Panther WL 3 O New PP 3 F TB 5 A TL 6 P
• (17) Vice New WL 5 F New PP 4 F TB 3 A TL 5 O
• (6) If Beale Street Could Talk WL 2 A PP 2 P TB 2 O
• (5) First Man WL 1 O PP 1 A TB 1 O TL 2 O
• (1) Crazy Rich Asians New TL 1 F

Wesley Lovell: A rather competitive race has developed between a lot of really good films, which are fighting for spots the not-so-great films are certainly taking. I consider four films complete locks (Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, and A Star is Born). I consider BlacKkKlansman a near-lock and Vice is doing well enough to be solidly 6th place in the race. The remaining films all have differing claims to the top prize. Bohemian Rhapsody was maligned by critics, but did boffo box office. The problem was, the precursors weren’t kind to it. That is until the guilds started handing out prize and suddenly, the film is running a strong seventh. The next spot, as I think there will only be eight nominees this year, I think will end up going to the year’s box office juggernaut Black Panther. The other handful of films that could lay claim to that final spot have all had various stumbles along the way, making it more difficult for them to place and if Panther doesn’t get a nomination, there will be a lot of angry people out there. Personally, I hope that If Beale Street Could Talk will make the list as I think its been criminally underappreciated by the guilds.
Peter J. Patrick: If less than ten, I expect First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Black Panther to be the first to go. First Man wasn’t the breakout hit it was expected to be; If Beale Street could Talk is regarded in some circles as too “artsy,” and Black Panther with its comic book origin is not the type of film that gets Best Picture nods.
Tripp Burton: This year seems to be a solid 8 nominees: BlackKklansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Vice. If there are more nominees, look for If Beale Street Could Talk or First Man to join them.
Thomas LaTourette: The top seven on my list should be fairly safe. After that it gets tricky. I am actually uncertain of Black Panther’s nomination, but everyone expects it so I will too. Bohemian Rhapsody may have won the Golden Globe, but I am not certain if it will receive an Oscar nomination. First Man was not a financial winner so it might not make the final cut. Crazy Rich Asians might sneak in based on its popularity, though it would not surprise me if the nominations stop at 8 or 9, so it would not make the cut anyway. If Beale Street Could Talk might make the list, but it just does not seem to have the appeal of the earlier Moonlight. Independent films like Eighth Grade or Can You Ever Forgive Me? might sneak in, but I am just not certain that they have enough fans to make it that last bit. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Best Animated Feature

• Incredibles 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Isle of Dogs WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mirai WL N TB O TL N
• Ralph Breaks the Internet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Smallfoot PP O
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse WL O PP O New TB F TL O

Wesley Lovell: Normally, the Academy abhors sequels and have nominated rubbish over quality pics a handful of times. What makes things different this year is that two main sequel contenders were both well admired by critics, which gives them a bit of gravitas. Further, the changes to the rules and who can vote may enable a wider swath of mainstream selections. This could hurt Mirai the most, since that film would typically benefit from anger over sequels. The Grinch could probably fill in the fifth slot pretty easily.
Peter J. Patrick: All but Smallfoot are virtually guaranteed a slot, the fifth spot is up for grabs.
Tripp Burton: These are the only five contenders I really see, which means that there is probably an unknown dark horse who sneaks in here.
Thomas LaTourette: Incredibles 2, Spider-Man, and Isle of Dogs all seem to have strong holds on a spot. Mirai probably will make it in as Gkids does well here. Ralph Breaks the Internet seems the weakest one, but I am not certain that any other independent film would have enough influence to pass it. And the other films from big studios were not that well received, so I cannot picture them getting a nomination. The one film that could pull the upset is Early Man. Aardman has done incredibly well getting animation nods, but this definitely felt like a weak entry.

Best Directing

• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos New PP F New TB F TL A
• Green Book – Peter Farrelly WL P New PP F New TL F
• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron WL P PP P TB P TL A
• A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper WL P PP A TB N TL P
• Vice – Adam McKay New WL F New TB F

Wesley Lovell: if either Alfonso Cuaron or Bradley Cooper were left off this list, I would be shocked. Spike Lee has earned a nomination, having been ignored numerous times before. However, it’s not a guarantee. That said, there are so many films with the potential for a nomination, that they could open it up to seven nominees and find that they have room to spare. DGA nominees Peter Farrelly and Adam McKay are likely to carry over, but Yorgos Lanthimos, Barry Jenkins, and Ryan Coogler could also make the final five without surprising anyone.
Peter J. Patrick: Non-DGA nominee Lanthimos is the most vulnerable here, but AMPAS generally does not agree completely with the DGA nominees, so he’s still possible.
Tripp Burton: DGA usually doesn’t match up 5/5 with the Oscars, and the scandal around him should lead Peter Farrelly to be the one left out. That opens things up for Pawel Pawolikowski, Yorgos Lanthimos, or Barry Jenkins to get an artier nomination.
Thomas LaTourette: Cooper, Cuaron, and Lee should all be safe. All had both DGA and Golden Globe nominations. Farrelly and Lanthimos are the ones who could be replaced by others, with Adam McKay for Vice or Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk as the most likely men who could knock them out of contention. I do not think that Ryan Coogler stands much of a chance to get a nomination for Black Panther, but perhaps it is the year of the superhero to finally break through.

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Vice New WL F New PP F TB N TL O
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born WL P PP P TB P TL P
• Ethan Hawke – First Reformed New PP F
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody New WL F New PP F New TB F TL P
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book WL P PP P TB P TL P
• John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman Returned WL F New TB F New TL F

Wesley Lovell: Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, and Rami Malek are pretty much locked in. Viggo Mortensen is a strong fourth-place candidate. That leaves the likes of critics’ darling Ethan Hawke, Willem Dfoe, and John David Washington fend for the fifth slot. Since there are few minorities in the running, I think there will be a rally behind John David Washington for a nomination. It would also be a tribute to his father whom he sounds just like.
Peter J. Patrick: Long shots include Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate, Ryan Gosling in First Man, and Lucas Hedges in Boy Erased.
Tripp Burton: Your SAG five should carry over here.
Thomas LaTourette: Bale, Malek, and Cooper all have SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe nominations and should easily score Oscar nods as well. Mortenson does as well, but a bit of backlash about the movie could hurt his prospects a little, but he still should be in the final five. Washington does not have as many precursor nominations to his name, but he still seems a fairly safe bet. Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, and Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate are his stiffest competition, but neither of their films did that well at the box office, which might help Washington secure that final spot.

Best Actress

• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma TL N
• Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns Returned PP F
• Glenn Close – The Wife New WL F PP O TB N TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite New WL F PP N TB N TL P
• Viola Davis – Widows WL N
• Nicole Kidman – Destroyer New TB F
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born WL A PP A TB P TL O
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O PP P TB P TL O

Wesley Lovell: Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and Lady Gaga missing this list would be a bit shocking. Melissa McCarthy also seems to be solidly competing, but the fifth spot is wide open. Viola Davis, Yalitz Aparicio, and Toni Collette probably have the only real shots and while I think Aparicio could be a surprise nominee, I believe Davis may end up in the fifth spot even if Collete is better than almost everyone competing this year.
Peter J. Patrick: Blunt is the most vulnerable, could easily be replaced with Roma’s Yalitza Aparicio or even Ben Is Back’s Julia Roberts.
Tripp Burton: There are four solid nominees here (Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy) and then a fifth slot that could go to literally anyone. I’m going with a dark horse in Kidman, but there are lots of other contenders.
Thomas LaTourette: In what will be one of the marquee races, best actress has turned into quite the tossup. Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman are guaranteed nominations and will be the three battling for the Oscar. Melissa McCarthy is likely to join them as she showed a very different side of herself with a very dramatic and rather unlikable role. This leaves the fifth spot to either Yalitza Aparicio for Roma or Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns. Blunt has not had good luck getting a nomination before, and may just miss out again this year. Aparicio just seems to have the momentum right now and will likely snag that last spot.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Green Book WL P PP P TB P TL P
• Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy WL O New PP F TL O
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman New WL F PP N New TB F New TL F
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born WL P PP A TB P TL A
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O PP P TB P TL O
• Sam Rockwell – Vice TB N

Wesley Lovell: Mahershala Ali is the only candidate that I couldn’t see being replaced. I feel pretty safe with Richard E. Grant as well, though his failure to win any of the televised awards certainly hurts his overall win chances. Adam Driver and Timothée Chalamet have done well enough in the precursors to end up on the list while Sam Elliott has had a rough go of it. I ultimately expect him to make the final list because of the admiration many voters have of him, but don’t count out Sam Rockwell or Michael B. Jordan for an upset.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the probable lineup, but surprises are always possible – the one I’d like to see is Robert Forster in What They Had instead of either Chalamet or Elliott.
Tripp Burton: I have this sinking hunch that Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominee Timothée Chalamet will disappear here. It happens at least once a year. If Vice doesn’t have as good a morning as I’m expecting, though, then Chalamet still has a shot over Rockwell.
Thomas LaTourette: This is the group who have SAG nominations and I expect them to repeat. Ali, Elliott, and Grant should easily score nominations. Chalamet probably will as well. Driver is the one who could most easily be passed over. Last year’s winner, Sam Rockwell or co-star Steve Carell, might score a nomination for Vice, but I think it will go to Driver.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Vice New WL F TB P TL O
• Claire Foy – First Man WL O New PP P TL O
• Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased PP O
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk WL A PP P TB O TL A
• Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots New TB F
• Emma Stone – The Favourite New WL F PP N TB N TL P
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite New WL F New PP F New TB F New TL F

Wesley Lovell: Regina King stumbled hard at BAFTA, so I label her chances as borderline even if I’m predicting her to win. Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, and Claire Foy seem like certainties while Amy Adams, Margot Robbie, Nicole Kidman, and Elizabeth Debicki could ride in to take the fifth spot with Adams the most likely simply because of the prestige of her film.
Peter J. Patrick: Also possible – Amy Adams in Vice in place of any one of my predictions.
Tripp Burton: This category has been weird this year, with the perceived frontrunner King missing SAG and BAFTA nominations, and it feels ripe for a surprise.
Thomas LaTourette: It seems like there will be a double nomination this year with both Stone and Weisz getting nods for their work in The Favourite. I doubt that either will win, but they both are likely to be in the final five. Adams should be there too for her work in Vice. If King is nominated, she will be the frontrunner for the Oscar, but I could easily see her being passed over as well. Foy is also on that cusp, though without the chance of winning if she is nominated. Margot Robbie could pull an upset for her work in Mary Queen of Scots, but I still think the top five are likely to get the nominations.

Best Original Screenplay

• Eighth Grade TB O TL P
• The Favourite New WL F PP O TB N TL O
• First Reformed New WL F New PP F
• Green Book WL P PP P TB P TL P
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Vice WL P New PP F TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Although First Reformed was omitted by the WGA, I think it, along with The Favourite, Roma, and Vice are all pretty solid predictions for this category. Green Book is probably going to ride the wave of enthusiasm for the film to a nomination over the likes of A Quiet Place or Eighth Grade.
Peter J. Patrick: Ben Is Back is amongst the longshots.
Tripp Burton: Roma, Green Book, and Vice got both WGA and BAFTA nominations, while Eighth Grade has a WGA nod. The Favourite is WGA ineligible, but it is still our probably front runner here.
Thomas LaTourette: I find it funny that the Broadcast Film Critics names all of my choices, whereas the Golden globes, Writers Guild and BAFTA did not. Of course they named more than five, so it is easier to cover mine. The Favourite, Roma and Vice should all be shoe-ins. Green Book should as well considering it won the Golden Globe, but some controversies have arisen that could derail its nomination. However, that probably came too late to affect the Oscar nod, but may prevent it from a win. Eighth Grade is my most vulnerable pick, but I found the other possible ones, A Quiet Place or First Reformed, to be problematical, so it is harder to picture them here. I haven’t seen Eighth Grade yet, so that might change. It still feels the likeliest to get that last nomination.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Black Panther New TL F
• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP N TB O TL O
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? New WL F New PP F TB P TL P
• The Death of Stalin New WL F New PP F
• First Man Returned TB F
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL O PP P TB O TL O
• Leave No Trace New PP F
• A Star Is Born WL P TB P TL P

Wesley Lovell: This is one of only two categories where I feel confident predicting If Beale Street Could Talk for a nomination. It should be joined by Can You Ever Forgive Me? and A Star Is Born, if the Academy doesn’t begrudge its remake status. The rest of the category is exceptionally fluid with BlacKkKlansman the next most likely nominee and USC Scripter nominee The Death of Stalin following a sort of In the Loop-like trajectory to an Oscar nomination. That said, Black Panther has the extremely rare privilege of a USC Scripter nomination as well as a WGA nod. Those two factors could be enough to finally get the Academy to recognize a comic book adaptation. Though, Widows or First Man could put a stop to either of these scenarios.
Peter J. Patrick: First Man, Black Panther, and A Star Is Born are also possible.
Tripp Burton: This is another weird category this year, with only Beale Street getting Globe, WGA, BAFTA, and USC nominations. It feels safe here, along with BlackKklansman and Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and then there are lots of film vying for a few slots. Leave No Trace and The Death of Stalin have outside chances to join here too. I’ll stick with the BAFTA five.
Thomas LaTourette: There are always films that seem assured of a nomination, and If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? sll should hear their names mentioned Tuesday morning. A Star Is Born and Black Panther are on shakier ground. I am not certain if Black Panther can score a nomination, as no superhero film has before, but it has been in the conversation more than any of its ilk before. There are a lot of fans of The Death of Stalin, but it was not a film I liked and have trouble picturing it getting the nod. That could leave First Man for the fifth spot, though it has underperformed with the precursors except in the tech categories. It is the most likely one to knock one of the others out.

Best Original Score

• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O TL O
• BlacKkKlansman PP O TB O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL O
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Isle of Dogs WL O TB O TL O
• Mary Poppins Returns PP O TL O
• A Quiet Place WL O

Wesley Lovell: This is the other category where I feel confident predicting If Beale Street Could Talk. Toss in First Man and likely Isle of Dogs and you have a solid foundation. The final two spots are competitive with eight films that I could see easily taking the spot. A Quiet Place likely benefits from being a silent film with plenty of music to pay attention to while Black Panther has done well in the precursor races for its score. BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns, and Vice could also pull out a nomination while Annihilation, Ready Player One, and The Death of Stalin could also surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: This seems to be one of the few categories where early favorite First Man still has a shot.
Tripp Burton: These are the big five contenders this year, although Mary Poppins Returns could still surprise us here.
Thomas LaTourette: Once again, I do not remember that much of the scores from these films, so I am finding it hard to predict them. First Man did have a good score and should be in for sure. Mary Poppins Returns probably is guaranteed a spot as well, though when it referenced the original score and songs, it made me realize how fond I am of those and how the newer version is just not as memorable. The rest seem as good a guess as anything else.

Best Original Song

• All the Stars – Black Panther WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Girl in the Movies – Duplin’ WL O PP O TB O TL O
• I’ll Fight – RBG WL O TB O TL O
• Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns WL O TL O
• Revelation – Boy Erased PP O
• Shallow – A Star Is Born WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Trip a Little Light Fantastic – Mary Poppins Returns PP O TB O

Wesley Lovell: “Shallow” seems like the only guarantee here. “All the Stars” also has a solid chance, but everything else is fighting for the remaining three slots. A song from a documentary often surprises by its inclusion and I think “I’ll Fight” from RBG might be the kind of empowerment anthem the Academy has recognized a lot recently. “Girl in the Movies” comes form legend Dolly Parton, which might give it a leg up even if the film is said to be garbage. Of course, there could also be two song nominations for Mary Poppins Returns. While I suspect “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” having the more jaunty feel may make it in, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” is a superb song and far better than the chimney sweep anthem. That said, “Suspirium,” “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” and “A Place Called Slaughter Race” are also strong candidates, as are any number of dark horse contenders.
Peter J. Patrick: Outside chance: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” making it two for Mary Poppins Returns.
Tripp Burton: I feel confident with this five, although I’m not sure which Mary Poppins Returns song shows up here. This category always has surprises up its sleeve, though.
Thomas LaTourette: “Shallow” from A Star Is Born will be nominated and will win. After that, anything may happen as this is not the easiest category to predict. There could be one, two, or no songs nominated from Mary Poppins Returns. But they were not as memorable as the Sherman Brothers’ ones from the original, so I am not certain that they will prevail. I could also imagine both songs being nominated. I can truthfully say that I do not remember most of the other likely noms from their respective films, so I do not have any strong feelings on them at present. One that could sneak in is Dolly Parton’s song “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ as they might like to nominate her again. The movie was a Netflix release and hardly in theaters, so that may be a problem with it being nominated. There are often a lot of surprises in this category, so we will see what happens. I thoroughly expect some upsets here.

Best Film Editing

• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TB O
• Bohemian Rhapsody PP O
• The Favourite TL O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Green Book PP O
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL O
• A Star Is Born WL O TB O TL O
• Vice WL O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: If you want to win Best Picture, you’d better pick up a Film Editing nomination. That’s why the likes of Roma, A Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Vice, Driving Miss Daisy, The Favourite, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and If Beale Street Could Talk are all in the mix for a nomination. Roma among these along with First Man are the only ones to feel confident about. The rest is a grand melee where three films will emerge victorious and others will be left in the cold.
Peter J. Patrick: A Star Is Born and Vice are also possible nominees.
Tripp Burton: This is a mixture of the space movie (which always does well in here) and your strongest Best Picture contenders. Black Panther is a dark horse here too.
Thomas LaTourette: In my mind, most of these films could have used a bit more editing, so I slightly biased against them when it comes to predicting. Vice and First Man were showy about their edits and will probably be in because of that. Roma will undoubtedly be nominated, though there were times it felt too slow for me. I think the same thing will keep Beale Street from a nomination. The concert scenes of A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody will probably push one of them through, most likely the former. The Favourite feels the most likely one not to make it, which could allow one of the others mentioned or even Black Panther to pick up that final spot.

Best Cinematography

• Black Panther TB O
• Cold War WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Favourite WL O PP O TL O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL O
• If Beale Street Could Talk PP O
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL O
• A Star Is Born WL O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Normally, I wouldn’t rank Alfonso Cuaron as a lock for a nomination here because the Academy’s cinematographers detest directors who lens their own movies. That said, the acclaim for Roma is too great to ignore and I don’t think they will. Another black-and-white foreign entry is also a pretty safe bet: Cold War. A Star Is Born and The Favourite also feel like solid predictions with First Man a likely fifth. The best cinematography of the year will go unrecognized as both If Beale Street Could Talk and Black Panther are probably not going to be selected.
Peter J. Patrick: Also possible: A Star Is Born, Black Panther.
Tripp Burton: I have this hunch that Alfonso Cuaron gets a surprise snub for Roma, considering this branch is usually wary of directors who shoot their own film. The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk could both still sneak in here too.
Thomas LaTourette: It surprises me to think that two black-and-white films will probably be nominated this year, Roma and Cold War. Both look to be sure bets. Fellow guild nominees First Man and A Star Is Born should also make it through easily, the first for drama in outer space and the latter for the concert scenes. I am predicting that The Favourite will take the final spot, even though its use of a fish eye lens at times was more annoying than interesting. The two films that seem most likely to pull an upset would be the warm tones of If Beale Street Could Talk or Black Panther. This is still uncharted territory for a superhero film, but its dominance in the tech categories could help it to a nomination here.

Best Production Design

• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald WL O
• The Favourite WL O PP O TB O TL O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mary Poppins Returns WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Roma PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: This is a category ripe with potential contenders. This is one of the few categories where box office or reviews don’t really matter, so there are plenty of contenders. The Favourite and Black Panther are solid bets as is Mary Poppins Returns. First Man and Fantastic Beasts were BAFTA nominees, which gives them a better than average chance. That said, don’t count out Roma, which might just surprise in a number of categories where it’s not expected. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms and A Wrinkle in Time could also make runs for a nomination, though Costume Design may be a safer place for them to run.
Peter J. Patrick: These were the most impressive.
Tripp Burton: This is a category that likes a lot of sets, which means that the completely built Roma and Mary Poppins cities should make it in here easily. The other three could be vulnerable, though, and look for Fantastic Beasts to be a dark horse.
Thomas LaTourette: The sumptuous sets of Mary Poppins Returns and The Favourite should guarantee them a spot here. First Man should also score one. Black Panther looks likely to as well. I am putting Roma into the final spot, but could imagine it being displaced by something flashier.

Best Costume Design

• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Bohemian Rhapsody PP O TB O TL O
• Crazy Rich Asians TB O
• The Favourite WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mary Poppins Returns WL O PP O TL O
• Mary Queen of Scots WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Nutcracker and the Four Realms WL O

Wesley Lovell: Looking at the Costume Designers Guild is a good guide, but instinct can also help. The Favourite is the only lock. Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary Queen of Scots are also in good positions leaving a fifth spot open for a number of contenders. Nutcracker has a lot of fancy gowns, A Wrinkle in Time has a bunch of unique designs, and BlacKkKlansman brings the 1970s to the big screen quite effectively. Any one of those could make the fifth slot, but I think Nutcracker is going to be it.
Peter J. Patrick: Anything is possible here.
Tripp Burton: This is a category usually chock full of period pieces, but not really this year. You have two British royal pieces, a fantasy piece, a 1970s rock and roll piece, and then I’m guessing the elaborate modern dress of Crazy Rich Asians.
Thomas LaTourette: All of my choices except Black Panther were BAFTA nominees and seem likely to repeat here. The armor and costumes of Black Panther make it seem a likely entry. If one of them fails to get the nom, I would guess it would be Bohemian Rhapsody, which could get upset by either the flashier period work of Fantastic Beasts or one of the other 1970s set films like Beale Street or BlacKkKlansman. It boasts more outrageous costumes, so I think it will still prevail.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Black Panther PP O
• Bohemian Rhapsody WL O PP O
• Border WL O TB O TL TL O
• Mary Queen of Scots TL TL O
• Stan & Ollie TB O
• Vice WL O PP O TB O TL TL O

Wesley Lovell: I could make a potential list of three nominees out of several different combinations. I think that Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody have the best chances while all of the other shortlisted titles could fill or bump, all depending. Border ended up being my third choice thanks to the numerous foreign productions that have surprisingly made this list over the years.
Peter J. Patrick: Stan & Ollie could be a spoiler here.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea in this category. I wouldn’t discount anything on the shortlist, but I have an inkling it is these three. This branch likes their prosthetics and obscure European contenders.
Thomas LaTourette: Looking at other predictions in this category, they have been all over the place. So I am not certain that I will be any better than others at predicting them. Vice seems a likely choice for the work they did turning Christian Bale into Dick Cheney. Mary Queen of Scots had amazing hairstyles, and flashy work turning Margot Robbie’s Queen Elizabeth I into a pockmarked older woman. The Academy often will nominate but not award an obscure foreign language film, so Border is my third choice. Bohemian Rhapsody seems the likely choice to upset, though Black Panther could as well.

Best Sound Mixing

• Black Panther WL O PP O TL O
• Bohemian Rhapsody WL O PP O TB O TL O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL O
• A Quiet Place WL O TB O TL O
• Roma PP O TB O
• A Star Is Born WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: With only one viable precursor, it’s very difficult to know where things stand. There are a number of contenders and a number of potential surprises and I have a hard time settling on five. First Man and Bohemian Rhapsody seem like the strongest contenders while it would be a shock if A Quiet Place missed. A Star Is Born has the music factor one should always take into account in this category and Black Panther is a major blockbuster achievement they might recognize. Then again, Roma has been surprisingly in the mix for this category, which doesn’t seem evident when you watch the film. It could very well surprise with a nomination as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Will most certainly be something loud!
Tripp Burton: I always struggle with these categories, so there is a lot of guessing here.
Thomas LaTourette: Surprisingly Mary Poppins Returns seems unlikely to score a nomination, even though musicals often do well here. A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody should place for their work during the concerts. A Quiet Place should as well, for the stellar work on it. Both it and First Man were good at capturing silence, which is harder than one would imagine. Black Panther feels the likeliest to not get a nom, so Roma or Mary Poppins might replace it. I expect it to prevail though all of the tech categories, so it probably is safe.

Best Sound Editing

• Avengers: Infinity War WL O
• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O TL O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL O
• A Quiet Place WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Ready Player One PP O TB O
• Roma PP O TB O TL O
• Solo: A Star Was Story WL O
• A Star Is Born TL O

Wesley Lovell: How Roma ended upa contender here, I don’t know, but it is. It’s one of quite a few films that could pull out a slot on the Sound Editing list, a category that has very little to help predict how it will go. A Quiet Place and First Man are the only titles I expect to see for certain while Black Panther should continue the tradition of films showing up in both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. Avengers: Infinity War also has a shot, as does Solo: A Star Wars Story, but Disney dominating this category that much would be surprising. Mission: Impossible, Ready Player One, or one of the animated features released this year could also fill in.
Peter J. Patrick: Something quieter will win here.
Tripp Burton: I always struggle with these categories, so there is a lot of guessing here.
Thomas LaTourette: I do not expect this to be a total repeat of the sound mixing category, but it will be close. First Man and A Quiet Place are likely to repeat. Black Panther probably has a better chance of nom here, but it will probably get both. A Star Is Born will likely repeat, though Bohemian Rhapsody may well be knocked out by the quieter Roma or something louder like Ready Player One or Solo.

Best Visual Effects

• Avengers: Infinity War New WL F PP O New TB F TL O
• Black Panther WL O PP O TL P
• First Man WL O PP O TL O
• Mary Poppins Returns PP N New TB F New TL F
• Ready Player One New WL F PP P TB O New TL F
• Solo: A Star Wars Story New WL F New TB F
• Welcome to Marwen New TB F

Wesley Lovell: When some of the major players didn’t make the cut-off, it left a handful of locks and near locks (First Man, Avengers: Infinity War, and Ready Player One) to fend off unusual choices to fill out the reset of the roster. Any of the shortlisted films could make it. I gave Black Panther (because of its BAFTA nominatioN) and Solo: A Star Wars Story the final slot, though the list title could be replaced by anything.
Peter J. Patrick: Any one of my predictions could win this category.
Tripp Burton: Based on the word from the bake-off, Welcome to Marwen and Solo are much bigger contenders than I would have predicted they would be. Black Panther missing from the VES could be a hint that it misses here, too, which I would have thought shocking.
Thomas LaTourette: Two Marvel Universe films, Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War, will be competing with each other. Ready Player One will probably join them for the flashy visuals of a future dystopian society. It would not surprise me if the gentler effects of Mary Poppins get a nomination. And the final spot should go to First Man as the Academy does like films set in outer space. Solo: A Star Wars Story could knock one of the others out, but I am not certain what would be most likely not to get the nomination.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Burning TL O
• Capernaum WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Cold War WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Guilty TB O
• Never Look Away WL O PP O TB O
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Shoplifters WL O PP O TL O

Wesley Lovell: There’s always one oddball nominee in this group, a title no one really saw coming. That could be Birds of Passage, though I’m giving the nod to Germany’s Never Look Away. Roma, Cold War, and Shoplifters seem like they are certain to be nominated while Capernaum is a solid selection. The Guilty could also get in, as could the acclaimed Burning, which doesn’t seem to play into the Academy’s wheel house.
Peter J. Patrick: This year’s foreign film selections seem stronger in every way than the frontrunners for Best Picture.
Tripp Burton: With a lot of critical and audience favorites on this shortlist, it seems like something is bound to be left off here. The well-liked Roma and Cold War seem solid here, and I think crowd-pleasers The Guilty, Never Look Away, and Capernaum top critical darlings Burning and Shoplifters.
Thomas LaTourette: Roma and Cold War should be assured spots, but the Academy often will drop out something that seems a sure thing. Still, I would be surprised if either of them was not named on Tuesday. The odd but endearing Shoplifters seems like a good fit, so I expect it too. I’ve heard good things about Capernaum, so it seems a likely nominee. That leaves Burning, Never Look Away, and The Guilty vying for the final spot. I have heard good things about them all so am not sure which might make it. Never Look Away was directed by someone I admire and a previous winner, so it might take the spot. If it proves too long, than Burning seems likely.

Best Documentary Feature

• Crime + Punishment TB O
• Dark Money PP O TB O
• Free Solo WL O TL O
• Minding the Gap WL O PP O TL O
• RBG PP O TB O TL O
• Shirkers WL O
• Three Identical Strangers WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Won’t You Be My Neighbor? WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, and Three Identical Strangers are the only titles I would be shocked didn’t make the cut. Several films could fill the final two slots and honestly, you could shuffle them all together and toss them in and see which two stuck and have a better chance at getting this category 100% correct.
Peter J. Patrick: RBG, Three Identical Strangers, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seem relatively certain, the others are anyone’s guess.
Tripp Burton: This is a strong shortlist, and in a year with so many popular documentaries, there are bound to be some left off the final list. The Academy likes important subjects, so I’m guessing that the cop drama Crime + Punishment and political drama Dark Money show up over more personal films like Shirkers and Minding the Gap.
Thomas LaTourette: There are four commercially successful documentaries that came out this year. I am thinking that all should pull off nominations, but somehow that usually does not happen. From what I hear, the lesser known Minding the Gap should get a nomination and will join RBG and Won’t You Be My Neighbor? Free Solo and Three Identical Strangers also should be in the final five, but this branch of the Academy often makes some slightly bizarre choices, so it would not surprise me if they replace one or both with more obscure choices. Will have to wait and see.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• 63 Boycott WL O TB O
• Black Sheep PP O TL O
• End Game TB O TL O
• Lifeboat WL O PP O TB O
• My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes PP O
• Period. End of Sentence. WL O TL O
• Women of the Gulag WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Zion WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Having read the subject matters of each of these documentary shorts, the five I selected are the most easy to connect to, but that’s not always the best way of making selections since this category is notorious for having strange things happen.
Peter J. Patrick: My predictions here are just wild guesses.
Tripp Burton: A guess here. Anything could happen.
Thomas LaTourette: These are really guesses at this point. It was hard not to pick My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes, just because it is such an unusual title.

Best Animated Short Film

• Age of Sail PP O
• Animal Behavior WL O TL O
• Bao WL O TB O TL O
• Bilby TB O TL O
• Bird Karma PP O TL O
• Late Afternoon TB O
• Lost & Found WL O PP O
• One Small Step WL O TB O
• Pepe le Morse PP O
• Weekends WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Once again, I looked at the descriptions of the shorts before making a decision and while I’ve seen Bao, I haven’t seen any of the others. I suspect any of them could have a chance at a nomination, though.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t have a clue about this category.
Tripp Burton: Thanks to the internet, I’ve actually seen all 10 shortlisted films. Big studio films Bao and Bilby seem safe to me, along with the emotionally resonant Late Afternoon and One Small Step. Weekends, which has won a bunch of prizes, seems like a strong fifth candidate.
Thomas LaTourette: Bao is the only one I have seen, and Pixar usually gets a nomination, so I expect it to go through. The rest I really do not know about now.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Caroline WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Detainment TL O
• Fauve WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Icare TB O
• Marguerite WL O PP O TL O
• May Day TB O
• Mother PP O
• Skin WL O PP O TL O
• Wale WL O TB O

Wesley Lovell: Based on the premises of the shorts, these were my selections, but without seeing any of them, it’s impossible to know what the Academy will go for.
Peter J. Patrick: Another category I know nothing about, but it’s safe to say that four or all five of the nominees will have one-word titles.
Tripp Burton: A pure guess.
Thomas LaTourette: I am mostly guessing here.