Precursor: 30th Producers Guild Nominations (2018)

The Producers Guild of America, who recognizes box office success as much as critical success has selected ten films, five animated features, and seven documentaries to fete this year. Surprising omissions form Best Picture: If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me?. Not-so-surprising omissions: First Reformed and Eighth Grade. Exclusions that make sense in the grand scheme of things, but which really hurt the film’s chances: First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, and Widows. Films that are helped dramatically by these nominations: Bohemmian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, and A Quiet Place, though it would still be surprising if any but one of these made it to the final Oscar slate (that being A Quiet Place).

On the animation front, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch is the not-so-surprising inclusion because this group rarely recognizes foreign or small-box office animated features. It may hurt Mirai a little, but probably not a lot. For documentaries, of the fifteen films that are on the Oscar shortlist, only four of them made this list (Free Solo, RBG, Three Identical Strangers, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor). They are probably good bets for Oscar, but the PGA/Oscar comparison in this category has been unimpressive in the past. Hurt most here are Hale County This Morning, This Evening, Minding the Gap, On Her Shoulders, and Shirkers.