As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

We are on the cusp of the major precursor announcements, meaning it’s time for one final look into the pre-precursor crystal ball. While we’ve got a few more titles and performances that have cemented, others have increased and decreased in our overall estimations. After the break, take a look at what we’re thinking right now.

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Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I made quite a few changes, but most of them were in removing contenders from the list that either moved to 2019 or have proven not be competitors at all. While I’m still not certain on a lot of things, some have come into focus and I’m feeling more confident now than I was just a month ago.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t remember a year in which we were days away from the first year-end nominations for major awards with no frontrunner in any of the top six Oscar categories. We not only don’t have a frontrunner for Best Picture, Directing, or in any of the acting categories, we can’t say with relative certainty who or what will even be nominated. Does that make it more exciting or simply more confusing? These are my best guesses, but that’s all they are – guesses.
Tripp Burton: This is in some ways the hardest time of year to try to put predictions together. You are not sure yet how well some of the fall releases are going to remain in people’s memories, and there are still some unseen December releases that could change everything in the landscape. The good thing is that in only a few weeks, we will start to really see what films people are still embracing and what are going to become failed Oscar buzz.
Thomas LaTourette: This always feels like the hardest time to predict. Enough films have been reviewed that we know lots of the major players, but few have played in markets where we can see them and some big name films have yet to be previewed, which leaves us in a no man’s land. I have only seen three of my Best Picture pics, so I have to rely on hearsay. I am looking forward to Roma, The Favourite, and Green Book making it to Denver as they sound intriguing. Some films like Vice, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary Queen of Scots could be fantastic films or complete duds. As there are no reviews of them yet, we really do not know how good they may prove to be. Since our last predictions a month ago, I have only tweaked categories by at most one possible nominee, but there will be more changes within a month. It’s a difficult time, but it is also an exciting one as the films are set to start pouring in to theaters soon.

Best Picture

• Black Panther WL O TB A TL P
• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Boy Erased PP O TL O
• Can You Ever Forgive M? New PP N
• The Favourite New WL N PP P New TB N TL O
• First Man WL O PP A TB O TL O
• Green Book WL P PP P TB P New TL N
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL A PP P TB O TL O
• Mary Queen of Scots WL O
• Roma WL P PP P TB O TL A
• A Star Is Born WL P PP A TB O TL O
• Vice TB A TL O
• Widows New WL N PP O TB P

Best Animated Feature

• Incredibles 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Isle of Dogs WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mirai New WL N TB O New TL N
• Ralph Breaks the Internet WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Smallfoot PP O
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse WL O PP O TL O
• Tito and the Birds New TB N

Best Directing

• Black Panther – Ryan Coogler TB A
• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos TL TL A
• First Man – Damien Chazelle WL O PP P TL TL O
• Green Book – Peter Farrelly WL P New TB N
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins New PP N
• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron WL P PP P TB P TL TL A
• A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper WL P PP A New TB N TL TL P

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Vice New TB N TL O
• Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy WL A
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born WL P PP P TB P TL TL P
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate WL P New PP N TB O
• Ryan Gosling – First Man WL O PP P TL TL O
• Ethan Hawke – First Reformed New TB N
• Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased PP O
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody TL TL P
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book WL P PP P TB P TL TL P

Best Actress

• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma New TL N
• Glenn Close – The Wife PP O New TB N TL TL O
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite New PP N New TB N TL TL P
• Penélope Cruz – Loving Pablo
• Viola Davis – Widows New WL N PP O TB O
• Nicole Kidman – Destroyer New WL N
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born WL A PP A TB P TL TL O
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O PP P TB P TL TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots WL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Green Book WL P PP P TB P TL P
• Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy WL O TL TL O
• Russell Crowe – Boy Erased WL A
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman New PP N
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born WL P PP A TB P TL TL A
• Robert Forster – What We Had New PP N
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O PP P TB P TL TL O
• Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther TB A
• Sam Rockwell – Vice New TB N TL TL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Vice TB P TL O
• Linda Cardellini – Green Book New PP N
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite WL P
• Claire Foy – First Man WL O PP P TB O TL TL O
• Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased PP O TL TL O
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk WL A PP P TB O TL TL A
• Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots WL A
• Emma Stone – The Favourite New PP N New TB N TL TL P
• Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns Returned WL N

Best Original Screenplay

• Ben Is Back New PP N
• Eighth Grade WL P TB O TL TL P
• The Favourite PP O Returned TB N TL TL O
• Green Book WL P PP P TB P TL TL P
• The Mule New PP N
• A Quiet Place WL P
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Vice WL P TB O TL TL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• BlacKkKlansman WL O Returned PP N TB O TL O
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? TB P TL TL P
• First Man WL O PP P TL TL P
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL O PP P TB O TL TL O
• A Star Is Born WL P PP P TB P TL TL P
• Widows WL P PP O New TB N

Best Visual Effects

• Annihilation WL O TL O
• Avengers: Infinity War PP O TL TL O
• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O TL TL P
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom TB O
• Mary Poppins Returns WL O New PP N
• Mortal Engines TB O
• Ready Player One PP P TB O
• A Wrinkle in Time WL O TL TL P