Let’s take a look back at our prior preview and see where we were right, wrong, and everything in between.

April 6, 2018

Blockers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. R-rated comedies have had a hit-or-miss relationship with the box office in recent years and while Game Night managed to perform well not long ago, this film will face a tougher box office with a bit more competition. It could still do quite well, but maybe not as well as it should.”
Box Office Results: $60.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Failing to become a spring breakout hit, this parental comedy nevertheless did decently at the box office, but nothing to ensure a sequel.

Chappaquiddick

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There really isn’t much of a need for a biopic about this particular incident. That it’s been pushed off several times to debut on the first weekend of April suggests no one has much confidence in its chances.”
Box Office Results: $17.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Audiences weren’t that interested in seeing the biographical film about the incident that destroyed Ted Kennedy’s presidential ambitions.

A Quiet Place

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: While my initial take was that the film wasn’t about to be an Oscar player, the unparalleled success of the film at the box office and the strong response from critics has put it into the kind of conversation that bolstered Get Out into Best Picture and several other categories. That said, this film doesn’t quite have the cachet of Get Out and it appears to have already faded a bit as the year has worn on.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Horror often does quite well at the box office, especially if it has a gimmick to sell and this one most certainly does.”
Box Office Results: $188 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] While it could been a regular horror performer at the box office, strong reviews and word of mouth helped turn this into an outsized hit.

You Were Never Really Here (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Even after Ramsay’s We Need to Talk About Kevin picked up numerous citations for star Tilda Swinton’s performance and helped launch the career of the DCEU’s Ezra Miller, the film couldn’t manage an Oscar nomination. This film is even less likely to do so.”
Oscar Results: Any chance this film had at Oscar consideration has largely faded with time.
Box Office Prospects: $1.8 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been seven years since Lynne Ramsay’s last film, a critical smash that pocketed $1.7 million at the box office, which was fairly solid for the type of movie she makes. With inflation, it’s possible her new film does better, but probably not by a lot.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While it outperformed my meager expectations, this tally isn’t anything to be excited about.

April 13, 2018

Borg vs. McEnroe

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The last tennis biopic, starring familiar faces Emma Stone and Steve Carell, only managed $12 million, but it didn’t open wide. Can this movie buck that trend? I have serious doubts, especially on whether it opens wide or not.”
Box Office Results: $0.231 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Originally slated for a wide release and then dumped into limited theaters, this tennis biopic flopped miserably, barely making a paltry $231,000.

The Miracle Season

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Helen Hunt hasn’t been seen a lot in recent years and this inspiration sports drama doesn’t seem like the kind of project that soars at the box office. The most similar in theme is McFarland USA and it had Disney behind it for a $44 million tally. I expect this one to end up far lower.”
Box Office Results: $10.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Inspirational sports dramas used to be major box office hits, but times have changed as has the interest in such films.

Overboard

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The Kurt Russell/Goldie Hawn original played heavily on their public personas and popularity to sell the film and it made only $26 million at the box office, roughly $60 million by today’s standards. Ana Faris is hardly a box office draw and isn’t in a real life relationship with co-star Eugenio Derbez. That said, the film will likely benefit from Derbez’s popularity among Hispanic audiences, which might bolster the film’s box office a bit, but not enough to make it a hit.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: LIke all of the other films that shifted release dates from April to May, this one moved to May 4, 2018 and was previewed in my article for that month.

Rampage

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The last teaming of Dwayne Johnson and director Brad Peyton (San Andreas) made over $150 million at the box office. While I don’t think this loose video game adaptation will perform up to those numbers, it should still do decent box office.”
Box Office Results: $99.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While this sub-$100 million tally isn’t terrible, expectations were very high for this loosely-based video game adaptation.

Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While there is an audience for cheaply-made animated films, it isn’t a big one and I can’t imagine anyone wanting to subject their kid to military propoganda. Of course, there are parents who would, so it could still make adequate money, but if even Valiant, a film about carrier pigeons in World War II couldn’t entice audiences to the theater (It made a paltry $19 million or $27 million by today’s standards), I suspect this one will fail as well.”
Box Office Results: $3.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even patriotic audiences couldn’t find anything worth checking out with this failure.

Truth or Dare

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. While horror is alive and well at the box office, teen-centric horror has struggled mightily in recent years, suggesting this film will probably suffer the same fate.”
Box Office Results: $41.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While not the big hit that the horror genre sometimes produces, it was still a decent performer.

The Rider (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This Spirit Award nominee has been delayed for release and while the subject matter might appeal to Middle America, I can’t see them being able to find it at a theater near them, so an unsuccessful box office output is likely.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Well above what I expected, these numbers are fairly mediocre for the specialty box office.

April 20, 2018

I Feel Pretty

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Amy Schumer’s first foray onto the big screen earned $110 million. Trainwreck, however, would have been a better title for her second box office release, Snatched. Still, that film managed to top $45 million, so it wasn’t a total loss. I suspect this film will probably perform closer to Snatched than Trainwreck.”
Box Office Results: $48.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Amy Schumer was once thought to be the next big thing in comedy, but has managed to fade almost as quickly as she rose.

Super Troopers 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original film, released 16 years ago, made $18 million at the box office. In modern numbers, that would equal to roughly $29 million. While the original has become a modestly cultish classic, I don’t expect the sequel to do that much better than the original and will likely underperform it.”
Box Office Results: $30.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Barely topping its predecessor at the box office in inflation-adjusted dollars, this doesn’t appear to have been the kind of backdoor hit the producers were expecting when they greenlighted a sequel sixteen years later.

Tully

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. After back-to-back Best Directing nominations, it seemed like Jason Reitman would be an Oscar player indefinitely, but Young Adult was a flop, Labor Day was heavily maligned, and Men, Women & Children was a huge disappointment. That makes Reitman 50-50 with his six films. Will he redeem himself? The April release doesn’t give one hope, but stranger things have happened.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Director Jason Reitman hasn’t released a film in four years thanks to a esries of box office and critical clunkers. His first three films, however, were acclaimed releases, two of them earning him Oscar nominations for Best Directing. The last of those three, Up in the Air, didn’t quite reach $100 million, but the prior effort did, surpassing that mark to the tune of $143 million. Can this film be more like those, with the added support of Juno (that $143 million film) screenwriter Diabloe Cody, or will it be more like the second Cody-Reitman collaboration that also starred Charlize Theron (Young Adult) and take a scant $18 million. A lot will depend on reviews.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: LIke all of the other films that shifted release dates from April to May, this one moved to May 4, 2018 and was previewed in my article for that month.

Beirut (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. There’s been almost no chatter about the film and while the premise might be something Oscar voters would take to, the early release will probably doom it.”
Oscar Results: While it did better than expected at the box office, this film has yet to generate anything remotely considered buzz.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This type of drama seldom resonates with audiences, so I don’t expect much of a box office climb for it.”
Box Office Results: $5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It wasn’t expected to make a lot at the box office, but that it did better than a lot of films that are targeted at the specialty box office crowd is a bit surprising.

April 27, 2018

Avengers: Infinity War

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The MCU has done well at the Oscars, but each film has not been the same. That said, this massive spectacle could at least play for a Visual Effects nomination if nothing else.”
Oscar Results: The film could still make a play for a Best Visual Effects nomination, it definitely doesn’t have the power to win.
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There are two competing thoughts on this film. The first is that the law of diminishing returns suggests that the third film will perform below the second. The second thought is that with so many well known characters in the film, it could boost expectations. Further, this is the culmination of all of the years of planning and plot-seeding that has taken place in the Marvel Cinematic Unvierse. It’s a universe-ending kind of event that promises a lot of drama, which could be enticing.”
Box Office Results: $678.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The second full Avengers film disappointed with $459 million. This film, the first of two parts, did better than the original by a bit (though, not when inflation is taken into account).

Bad Samaritan

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There are a lot of unknown factors about this film, the biggest of which is whether anyone even knows it’s coming and further if anyone actually cares enough to make it pop at the box office. With popuar Doctor Who and Jessica Jones actor David Tennant here, it could do much better than expected.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: LIke all of the other films that shifted release dates from April to May, this one moved to May 4, 2018 and was previewed in my article for that month.

Traffik

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s a familiar premise with not-so-familiar actors facing off against familiar odds. It sounds like a recipe for success, but also a recipe for failure.”
Box Office Results: $9.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Halle Berry just isn’t having any luck as a box office draw. Considering how her post-Oscar career has taken a nose dive, it might be time for her to head back to the indies and try her hand at proving her Oscar wasn’t a fluke.

Disobedience (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This is another film that sounds like it could be a tough sell to audiences, especially those looking for something unique. And while this is certainly unique and features prominent Hollywood actresses, it just hasn’t been much of a blip on the radar this year.”
Box Office Results: $3.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Critics were pleased with the film, which gave it a boost with independent cinema fans, giving it a solid, though still unexceptional box office tally.

Kings (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Halle Berry’s star isn’t ascendant any longer, so she doesn’t have the clout to draw to the box office. Her last starring role, Kidnap, barely made $30 million at the box office. While this drama certainly has a fitting statement for today’s sociopolitical climate, it’s issuing on a limited basis, which won’t help the film soar.”
Box Office Results: $0.275 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Halle Berry’s other April release tried to go the indie route, but it also failed to attract and audience, a flop considering her talent.