As we move into the home stretch, it’s clear that perhaps we aren’t going to have as many “safe” outcomes as we expect. While some categories seem annoyingly pre-determined, others remain wide open and could be decided by a few votes.
Four of the Top Six categories, those we are looking at today, are pretty much locked into a winner. The sad part is that three of those races are ones that I would love to see anyone else win than he designated winner. However, looking at the empirical indicators of precursors, history and word of mouth, the outcomes appear to be completely certain.
Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actor is one of those near certainties. Javier Bardem received a nomination for Before Night Falls previously. His work since has been praised, but ultimately he had not succeeded in making it back onto Oscar’s radar until this year. However, with the general love of his film, No Country for Old Men, and the heaps of critics prizes he’s accumulated, his loss would be one of the bigger surprises of the night.
But, who has the chance of breaking his hold? There are three real possibilities. Philip Seymour Hoffman is not one of them. For all the praise he’s gotten for Charlie Wilson’s War and his other efforts this year, the film flopped by Oscar standards and he just won the award, undeservingly, two years ago for Capote.
Tom Wilkinson could benefit from a wave of Michael Clayton support. His performance isn’t necessarily career high in most opinions, but if the film is destined to win Best Picture, its support should be such that Wilkinson could trump Bardem. However, if that is indeed the case, expect Bardem to keep the prize as a show of “thanks for playing” support for the film.
Casey Affleck, for a time, was considered the frontrunner. He had everything going for him: lead-worthy screen time, critical support and two talked-about performances in major year-end films. Then, after neither film caught on at the box office, Gone Baby Gone failed to figure in anything but Supporting Actress and Javier Bardem taking most of the critics’ awards, Affleck’s noteworthy and potentially award-winning performance was pushed aside. He could still pull an upset. He’s the kind of up-and-coming star that the Oscars love to reward, but usually only on the women’s side. The men’s side tends to be given to longtime character actors or big names in small roles.
Then there’s Hal Holbrook. Hardly a screen legend, this octogenarian picked up a nomination for his fatherly turn in the film that was an early favorite for Oscar attention. Into the Wild was going to be big. Everyone was talking about it. It had the Kerouac set abuzz, but then it failed to earn a single nomination in the Top Six except for poor Holbrook. As his film’s only major nomination, it could prove difficult for him to win. Still, if there’s an actor that can build on good will enough to win the award, and simultaneously become the oldest winner in the category ever, it’s Holbrook.
Supporting Actress
This is probably the hardest category to pick this year. It’s also one of the most tumultuous the Academy’s seen in some time. Not since Marisa Tomei won for My Cousin Vinny has a category had the potential to generate a surprise. All five actresses have a good chance at winning and each for different reasons.
Cate Blanchett plays Bob Dylan. Not only is she taking on the kind of impersonation that won her the Academy Award for The Aviator, she’s also playing the opposite gender. This worked quite well for Linda Hunt who captured the trophy for The Year of Living Dangerously, but that was the only time. No other gender-bending performance has won an Academy Award. That does hurt Blanchett as does being her film’s ONLY Oscar nomination. Each of her fellow nominees has their film nominated elsewhere. She still holds the Golden Globe award for Best Supporting Actress, but their track record isn’t so great and she was often eclipsed by Amy Ryan in the critics prizes.
Still, she has a good shot at a win simply based on the stunt casting (unless voters fail to catch up on the art film in which she appears). Then there’s the double nominee factor. Until Sigourney Weaver came along, every actor or actress nominated twice in the same year earned one of the prizes. Since Weaver, however, that trend has failed a number of actors. This could be such a case.
Amy Ryan was considered the frontrunner by many for quite some time. Her massive success at the critic’s awards might have seemed a pre-destination for Oscar victory. However, this category has the least correlation to critics prizes of any trophy. Very seldom does the leader of the critic’s trophies triumph at the Oscars. So, I’ve never given her much thought. However, there is a segment of the Academy that will want to recognize her for toiling on the stage and finally emerging into prominence. Her performance may be as much of a hindrance as it is a boon. Her character is hardly likable. She’s selfish and manipulative. And despite her big scene in the center of the film, I can’t see the Academy recognizing this kind of character.
Saoirse Ronan is the only acting nominee for Best Picture contender Atonement. A lot of her success will hinge on whether the Academy really loves the film or if its nomination was an anomaly. That aside, she commands her many scenes and gives the kind of child performance you don’t see much of. It’s controlled and measured and certainly worthy of attention. Though she’s not the best Briony of the film (a distinction I give to Romola Garai), the fact that she’s the youngest nominee and this is the only category to ever recognize teenage and younger actresses, she has a good shot.
Ruby Dee has long been on my list as a potential spoiler. She has earned a great deal of good will in the industry, yet has never been Oscar nominated. That’s largely due to her work primarily on the stage with only a small oeuvre on film. That aside, she managed to pick up the Screen Actors Guild prize for Best Supporting Actress. It’s not the best indicator of an eventual winner, but it shows there’s a great deal of respect for her in the industry. If she wins, it will largely be because of her reputation, not necessarily the short-time performance in American Gangster. She would also be the oldest actress ever to win this category should she do so.
But, the British Academy Awards threw a wrench in the whole affair when it gave the prize to Tilda Swinton. She may have won because she’s a Brit, but there’s rumbling that since Michael Clayton isn’t likely to win Best Picture, this may be the best and easiest way to recognize the film. She’s been toiling in the background of Hollywood for several years and has given countless critically acclaimed performance. This is her first nomination. This could be the Academy’s chance to recognize her for her body of work to date and in such a tight race, strong support could lead to her victory.
Actor
While most other categories with a slam-dunk winner have a distinct group of potential spoilers. Best Actor remains the only category with only a small measure of support for the opposition. Daniel Day-Lewis should handily win for his performance in There Will Be Blood and the only person who could possibly stand in his way already has an Oscar.
Viggo Mortensen’s recognition is the nomination. After being passed over for A History of Violence, some voters may have solidified support for his Russian dialect performance in Eastern Promises just to get him nominated. Accents aren’t the typical winners of the Best Actor category, nor are impersonations. Mortensen’s probably the least likely to pick up the prize.
Tommy Lee Jones is right behind in him that respect. His film was an Oscar dud, earned no other nominations and Jones himself already has an Oscar. He’s not nominated for No Country for Old Men, but that film probably figured into his nomination here.
Johnny Depp’s lackluster singing voice didn’t keep him from being nominated, but after Finding Neverland, it should be no surprise that he’s probably going to get nominated for every performance he turns in until he wins. That’s not likely to be for Sweeney Todd. It didn’t figure in any of the major races and he couldn’t even manage to win the SAG Award, which he picked up for Pirates of the Caribbean. If any group were going to recognize him, it would have been that one.
Michael Clayton keeps creeping into discussions. It’s the kind of film people respect more than they recognize. It’s similar to Erin Brockovich in many ways but also easily likened to Good Night, and Good Luck. The latter didn’t win a single trophy from the Oscars, the former gave long-ignored Julia Roberts an undeserved win. If George Clooney picks up the prize this year, it will be considered by many as the biggest upset in Oscar history, possibly even earning more attention than the infamous Citizen Kane/How Green Was My Valley incident.
Daniel Day-Lewis already has an Oscar, so does Clooney, his nearest competitor. The difference is that Day-Lewis lost recently for a much-ballyhooed performance and hasn’t been to the podium in nearly twenty years. George Clooney was there very recently. Day-Lewis also has his fellow thespians singing his praise as the kind of villainous performance that most actors can’t make seem likable. Day-Lewis makes Daniel Plainview a sympathetic villain, which makes his win feel all the more right.
Actress
What was once a pretty certain outcome has become muddied in recent weeks. Julie Christie was the belle of the ball. She had several critics prizes, she received the Screen Actors Guild award and her long career were all beginning to port towards her victory.
Then the worst news she could receive happened. Marion Cotillard, a Frenchwoman, took the home-turf prize at the British Academy Awards away from her. Christie’s a native and there’s often a British bias against the French, but there Cotillard was, winning the big prize. Her performance in La Vie en Rose has been criticized by many for being too histrionic-laden, but actors seem to genuinely like how deeply immersed Cotillard got into the part. While the brilliant makeup work certainly helped, there was no question she so effectively embodied Edith Piaf that Stanislavski would have been proud.
But what if the battle royale between Christie and Cotillard generated another result. Namely a third, well-supported contender emerging to snatch the victory away from the two powerhouses. Most would say Ellen Page is that contender. If she were to win, she would be the younest winner ever in this category, beating out Marlee Matlin’s record for Children of a Lesser God. Juno has box office clout and many believe Page is one of her generation’s most talented professionals. Those same people would probably say her potential is such that she deserves recognition for that work.
Cate Blanchett’s has two major roles this year and could benefit from opinion that she should have won for her work in Elizabeth back in 1998. However, the voters who think that probably also believe her recognition for The Aviator made them even. So, it’s unlikely that Blanchett will triumph here best chance is in the Supporting Actress race.
Then again, Laura Linney’s got a staggering reputation, one that managed to earn her a nomination in spite of her film’s general failure at the box office. The Savages isn’t the type of role that wins Oscars, but with three popular actresses vying for the top prize, Linney could emerge with a strong column of support to wrest victory from the hands of defeat.
Director
Last year, we had no doubt that Martin Scorsese was going to triumph for The Departed. Even if his film wasn’t going to win Best Picture, he was finally going to get his Best Director trophy. And with the DGA firming up that belief, he did. The same thing is very likely to occur this year, but to a much more minor degree.
No one disagrees that Joen and Ethan Coen have been hit or miss with the Academy. Since their major nomination triumph with Fargo back in 1996, they have barely been a blip on the Oscar radar. That all changed when No Country for Old Men swept into the year-end critics’ derbies and won nearly everything in sight. For them to lose now, especially after picking up the DGA award would be quite surprising.
Not likely to figure into an upset are Juno‘s Jason Reitman and Michael Clayton‘s Tony Gilroy. Both are first-time nominees and neither are Oscar wunderkinds. Gilroy’s best shot is in the screenwriting category and Reitman’s nomination is his reward. What hinders Reitman more is that in the history of the DGA, only once has the Best Director winner not also been a guild award nominee. That one case was the very first year of the awards.
Paul Thomas Anderson might have been a stronger contender had his film, There Will Be Blood, opened earlier and played to more critics, perhaps even to the SAG voters. Anderson’s bigger problem is having been on the fringe of Hollywood for most of his career. Films like Boogie Nights, Magnolia and Punch-Drunk Love are hardly Oscar friendly. They are a bit bizarre in many ways, which has caused him to be marginalized. However, with Blood, he became a classical director in the style of George Stevens and John Ford. That might appeal to a significant portion of older voters, but the newer ones will be more interested in recognizing the Coens simply because they’ve had a longer, more successful career.
Julian Schnabel could be the underdog. Without a Best Picture nomination, his chances of winning are slim, but the respect he has earned in the industry with only three films is certainly impressive. His nomination may end up being his reward, but The Diving Bell and the Butterfly succeeds largely due to his artistic, assured direction.
Picture
In a competition of quality, there’s no question that There Will Be Blood would be the year’s Best Picture. However, the Academy has seldom chosen the actual best film of the year for its top prize. They’ve also been trying in recent years to avoid spectacle and go instead for smaller, more subversive selections. That points towards a No Country for Old Men victory.
The film also benefits from a seldom connection between the Writers Guild, Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild. Since the SAG’s inception in 1994, only three films have ever one the prize from all four groups. The first was American Beauty in 1999, which went on to pick up the Best Picture prize. The second was The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003. Another four years later, No Country for Old Men picked up all four prizes. This pushes it so far out in front that any other outcome would be a surprise and, depending on the selected winner, could rival 2005’s Crash incident as a suitable comparison.
Atonement has the smallest chance of victory. Only three times in Oscar history has a film without a Best Director nomination picked up the Best Picture prize. The first two times occurred in the Academy’s first decade and the most recent incident was nearly twenty years ago, the same year Daniel Day-Lewis picked up his trophy for My Left Foot. Driving Miss Daisy doesn’t appeal to the same voters as Atonement, so the likelihood of a repeat would be truly bizarre (though, would certainly set a record if Day-Lewis also wins the Actor prize).
Juno was, for a time, considered to be the film with the best shot of overtaking No Country for Old Men and with its box office prowess, it could still very well reap the benefit. However, the year’s top box office winner is not usually the Best Picture winner.
Michael Clayton wasn’t a box office smash, but is significantly well respected in the industry. It’s the kind of film that might have taken the prize forty years ago, but today, it seems almost out of style. However, I wouldn’t put it past Academy members to try and find a way to shock the audience with a surprise victory and this could be it. But I do see an Erin Brockovich kind of resolution its future.
That leaves a terrific spoiler in There Will Be Blood. It has a classicism that Hollywood hasn’t really seen in recent years, but it also has a modernist approach that could appeal to a large swath of Academy members. Even with the semi-violent end in consideration, it’s the film most of old Hollywood probably wishes they could or did still make. So, while I’m sure, as are most others, that No Country for Old Men is going to win this year’s top prize, what a marvelous surprise it would be to have the year’s best film, and easily the best film this decade, win the prize. It would have the potential to become one of Oscar history’s ten best choices ever.
If only that could happen…
When the year finally wraps and the final prize is handed out this Sunday, one thing is certain. This year’s Oscar winners are likely to be as diverse as they ever have been in Academy history. None of the films in contention seems to fit the archetypal Oscar winner mold. It will be interesting to see how the winners this year are looked at in twenty years. Will the winners age well or will they fade into obscurity? I can see some doing both, but it will definitely be a banner year for diverting from the norm.
-Wesley Lovell (February 23, 2008)
