As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

Several more guilds announced their nominations this past week with only a handful left. Most of the heavy-hitters have announced, including the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America, and Producers Guild of America. That along with last night’s Critics Choice Awards and last Tuesday’s Golden Globes, the landscape shifts ever so slightly.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 8 (TUE-MON)

Tuesday, Jan. 17 – Seattle Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 17 – Annie Awards (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 17 – Visual Effects Society (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 17 – Japan Academy Prize (Japan) (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Jan. 17 – Academy Awards Nominations Voting Ends (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 18 – Online Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 18 – USC Scripter (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 19 – British Academy (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 19 – Sundance Film Festival (Festival) (Official)
Saturday, Jan. 21 – Chicago Independent Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Jan. 22 – Latino Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Jan. 23 – Online Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Jan. 23 – Guldbagge Awards (Sweden) (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Jan. 23 – Razzies (Nominations) (Official)

Big Winners

Everything Everywhere All at Once may not have done well at the Golden Globes, winning only two acting prizes, but it did significantly better at the Critics Choice Association with the only carry over winner between the two being supporting actor Ke Huy Quan. That on top of a huge number of other critics prizes, positions the film well for the Oscars.
The Whale made a surprise showing on the PGA list and star Brendan Fraser showed up at SAG alongside a not-quite-expected Hong Chau and then went on to win the Critics Choice award for Best Actor. It was a solid week or a film that had seemed to be fading a bit as the precursor season stretched on.
Angela Bassett now has two televised acting prizes on her mantle for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. She’s the kind of longtime actor who shows up at the Oscars one day as a winner and this looks like it might be her year, but don’t count out Jamie Lee Curtis, the only other actor with a lengthy career and a dearth of Academy attention in the race. But two televised prizes might be enough to shake her competition loose, who might be fighting against fellow nominee Stephanie Hsu (please let that happen) for the Oscar leaving Bassett without competition.
The Fabelmans hasn’t had the best precursor season, but winning the Best Drama and Best Director prizes at the Golden Globes gives it added visibility. Further, Spielberg’s film also secured an ensemble nomination AT SAG, which means they really like the film. While it only took home the youth actor prize at the Critics Choice awards, it still has enough support it seems to make the final list even if the film doesn’t ultimately win much if anything.

Big Losers

The Banshees of Inisherin has had a solid precursor season, though it seems to be fighting against the headwinds of Everything. It also won the Comedy/Musical prize at the Globes along with the Best Actor prize for Farrell. The problem is that he lost at the Critics Choice awards and the film went home empty-handed, which could be a bad sign. That said, it’s not all woe, the film scored three awards at the Globes, the most of any film, and it tied for most nominations at SAG, indicating broad-ranging support.
RRR was thought to be one of the prime contenders of Oscar season because of its much ballyhooed support from critics, including a Best Foreign Language Film and Original Song prizes from the Critics Choice Association. The problem is that the film hasn’t been showing up where it needs to. It wasn’t on any of this week’s guild lists, including the all-important PGA. Its fortunes may have faded and it wasn’t submitted by India to the Oscars, so its best shot right now seems to be in Original Song, which is a might short of where it was when things began this year.
Babylon was a high profile misfire for Oscar winner Damien Chazelle. After the high profile flop of First Man at the Oscars, this was his next best chance to live up to the high expectations the industry had for him. Then film released to meager reviews, but it’s been showing up regularly with critics groups, even if it’s not winning many prizes. In spite of that, PGA and DGA ignored the film while the Costume Designers Guild recognized it, as did SAG, but it was only up for ensemble at SAG, which does hurt the film’s general chances.
All Quiet on the Western Front got its biggest boost out of the BAFTA longlists, but has been struggling with the guilds. It hasn’t really shown up much at the precursors to this stage and may have released far to late to have impact. That said, it could still surprise at the Oscars since it’s clear that at least the British contingent are familiar with the film. That alone might give it enough of a visibility boost to make a run for it.
Missing from DGA were all of the female filmmakers that had been showing up all season including Sarah Polley, Gina Prince-Bythewood, and Charlotte Wells. Wells, though, was on their Best First Feature list. James Cameron and Park Chan-wook also missed the list. The former is a bad sign for Avatar: The Way of Water while the latter isn’t entirely unexpected.
Missing from SAG, other than others mentioned elsewhere in this article, are the likes of Tom Cruise, Hugh Jackman, Paul Mescal, Jeremy Pope, Michelle Williams, Olivia Colman, Brian Tyree Henry, Ben Whishaw, Brad Pitt, Judd Hirsch, Mark Rylance, Carey Mulligan, Dolly De Leon, Janelle Monáe, and Keke Palmer. While many of these were expected to miss, the ones with the most to lose by missing out are Cruise, Jackman, Williams, Henry, and Mulligan. The rest could still surprise, but these are prominent actors who should have been in the race at SAG, but weren’t and that’s a bad sign. That’s especially true for Williams who’s going for a nomination in the heavily competitive lead category while the more appropriate and less competitive supporting category could have nabbed her an Oscar.
Missing from PGA are a number of high profile films that find their lack of support a big issue. She Said, Till, The Woman King, Women Talking/em>. Others will be talked about separately.