As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

With so many critics groups to give out awards, they all seem to blur together and little about this past week has revealed much we didn’t already know. That said, the release of the BAFTA longlists have clarified some contenders and hindered others. This week starts the guild nominations and that could be quite interesting.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 7 (TUE-MON)

Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Austin Critics (Awards) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Audio Society (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Directors Guild – Documentary (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 10 – Golden Globes (Awards) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – Directors Guild – Director & First Feature (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – Make-Up Artists Guild (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – Publicists (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – Screen Actors (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 11 – British Academy (Longlists) (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – GALECA (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – Costume Designers (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – Producers Guild (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – NAACP Image Awards (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 12 – Academy Awards Nominations Voting Begins (Official)
Friday, Jan. 13 – Denver Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Jan. 13 – Georgia Critics (Awards) (Official)
Friday, Jan. 13 – Hawaii Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Jan. 15 – Critics Choice (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Jan. 15 – Toronto Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Jan. 16 – Seattle Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Jan. 16 – African American Critics (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

Everything Everywhere All at Once continues to perform quite well in the run-up to the Oscar nominations. Will it be able to score as many nominations from the Academy as it has from critics? I have my doubts, but double-digit nominations are becoming increasingly likely by the day.
The Banshees of Inisherin is picking up almost everything that Everything Everywhere All at Once hasn’t nailed down and is shaping up to be the film to overcome skeptical Oscar voters.
All Quiet on the Western Front, by the nature of its performance at the British Academy in their longlist announcement suggests perhaps we’re sleeping on this one. The 1929 adaptation of the novel won big at the 3rd Oscars and that suggests the material has plenty of potency to carry another film into the Oscar competition. What could hurt the film is it being a foreign language, but the Academy has gotten past that before. The problem is that while critics have liked it, the film has failed to make inroads with those voters, which might reduce its visibility for the Academy.
Elvis has performed quite strongly all season long picking up numerous citations and making the Best Picture slate in many places where one wouldn’t normally expect that. It’s one of two early-year releases that could be solid contenders.
Top Gun: Maverick is performing far above expectations and is proving to be way more than a sequel to blockbuster Top Gun and has been a blockbuster in its own right. There’s no question that this could be the mainstream, but accessible choice for a lot of Oscar voters.

Big Losers

The Fabelmans has gotten some good news this week, but the film has largely been ignored by the critics. While it gets the occasional citation, Spielberg himself missing at BAFTA was troublesome as was the films overall anemic showing there.
Avatar: The Way of Water performed even worse than Spielberg’s film and while many thought it would be a major player with the creative categories, BAFTA’s longlists suggest otherwise.
Women Talking Missing the Best Picture longlist at BAFTA, which is gonna be an issue for the film. It was moving along quite well with the critics’ prizes, but that stumbling block might suggest trouble ahead.
The Woman King is another film that seemed to start out strong, but has faded as the weeks go by. While other films have found factions coalescing around them, this film hasn’t had that much success and missing the Best Picture slate at BAFTA is also troubling.