The worst Oscar seasons are always the ones that have everything compressed into a tiny window. Sure, this year saw a later Oscars telecast date, but all of the guilds decided to wait until March to present their winners, compacting them into the last three weekends before the Oscars, making it impossible to get good broad coverage of the event. It was frustrating and I hope they don’t do that again next year.

What’s further made the last few months exasperating is how all the narratives seem to be coalescing and only when BAFTA came out did things start shifting. Yet, even though most races aren’t finalized, that doesn’t mean it felt good to see conventional threads unravel. Having a once solid contender like The Banshees of Inisherin fade when it didn’t deserve to be utterly run over is dispiriting and the love of Everything, while not mystifying, does make one question others’ ability to see paper thin storytelling. We’re not here, though, to talk about our favorites (though I will do that as a part of the following write up). Let’s talk about everything that’s led up to the Oscars this year and how it will impact the final results. Just remember that no matter what precursors say, the Academy can, and will, throw some curveballs, so that’s what we’ll try to uncover.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive. Best Picture, whether competitive or not, is last. While these are currently my final predictions, I reserve the right to change my mind at the last minute. That said, doing that has often been my undoing, so it will likely stay the same. Keep an eye out on the sidebar where it says “updated” under the predictions listing. When it says FINAL, you know I’m settled. I really just want to take one last look through my Hopefuls/Predictions and the chances rankings to see if I feel they still need to be adjusted. I hope to have this done by the end of day on Friday.

Best Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water. This is the only race that has been decided since the film was announced as a 2023 release. There’s no stopping the film as there are no credible competitors. It has 85.71% of the precursors and only failed to win three of the prizes that were given out. It dominated the Visual Effects Society and that pretty much tells you everything.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Top Gun: Maverick. If Everything Everywhere All at Once had been nominated, I’d suggest that film, but the only title that could compete is Top Gun: Maverick as it seems like it might be the most outwardly impressive to most voters.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Avatar: The Way of Water. While the film was fairly pedestrian in certain regards, there’s no question is was a visual effects dream and I don’t think anyone will be chagrined by its victory.

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Tor’s Pinocchio. It might not seem like a lot, but 57.69% of precursors went to Pinocchio. All but six of the remaining prizes went to Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. Yet, when the guilds had a chance to recognize Pinocchio, they did so in overwhelming numbers. Sure, both films won at the Annie Awards, but that’s because they were competing in separate categories. Pinocchio won all of the major prizes (Globe, BAFTA, PGA), so it would be a bit of a shock at this point if anything triumphed.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. 32.69% isn’t token resistance. That’s how many precursors Marcel took and among the biggies, they captured awards from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review. That does signal broad support, but at this point it’s trailed Pinocchio so much in the last few weeks, it might well have been forgotten.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Turning Red. I never got to see Turning Red. Disney seemed to abdicate its animated position this year with two high profile theatrical flops (Lightyear and Strange World), yet it’s the film they thought wouldn’t succeed and thus shunted it to Disney+ in a day-and-date release. It’s the third-most recognized animated film of the year even if its three prizes were relatively minor. The reason the studio seemed to reject its box office potential was that it was about little girls growing up. For a studio that built itself on the backs of princess movies, it’s surprising that they would ignore this film and, as such, I’d like to see it win just to show Disney they were wrong.

Best Original Song

Who Will Win: “Naatu Naatu”. Only a handful of organizations give out awards for original song. BAFTA doesn’t and that only leaves two major visible organizations that do: the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Association. Both groups gave “Naatu Naatu” the award.
Who Could Potentially Upset: “Hold My Hand”. While “Naatu Naatu” seems the only track with any change, the difference in leads between the songs is 4 prizes. “Naatu Naatu” has 9 while “Hold My Hand” has 5 and “Lift Me Up” has 4. Ultimately, I suspect that if the song from RRR were not to win, it would go to Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand,” but I could also see support for Rihanna and “Lift Me Up.”
What I Would Like to See Happen: “Lift Me Up”. I can’t say that I’m terribly impressed with this year’s array of original songs. None of them are great songs and so I’m a bit ambivalent about the results. If I wanted anything, it would be for “Lift Us Up” to win simply because it’s the most inspirational of the selections even if it’s weak by this category’s past standards.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan. The only one of the acting categories that seems to be settled is Best Supporting Actor. Ke Huy Quan has dominated the precursors and come away with 82.46% of them. That’s the third highest total of the year. He won at SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globes. He has remained the dominant force all season.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Barry Keoghan, Brendan Gleeson. Until BAFTA. BAFTA ignored Quan and went with Barry Keoghan instead. He wasn’t even thought to be a second place contender, Brendan Gleeson was. So, of course, the thought is that he’s vulnerable, but the subsequent win at SAG has settled some of the anxiety Quan fans had for that brief moment in time.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Brendan Gleeson. While I agree that Keoghan is good in Banshees, Gleeson is fantastic and its perhaps his dependability that has left him vulnerable. I would love for an upset for a veteran character actor Gleeson.

Best Animated Short Film

Who Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. This short is so incredibly well produced, it would be a shock if it didn’t win. It’s already secured several prizes, including a large number of awards at the Annies, so there’s little likelihood of a loss.
Who Could Potentially Upset: My Year of Dicks. You can’t get past the in-your-face attitude of a title like My Year of Dicks. It might turn off a lot of older voters, but younger ones will be amused and that could help. It’s blend of several styles of animations and that might help, but the styles are a bit crude and I don’t know if that will be enough to upset the smoothness of The Boy….
What I Would Like to See Happen: An Ostrich Told Me…. Unlike the other animated shorts this year, Ostrich had me laughing quite a lot. That’s a rarity in these artful, but dull and somewhat lifeless efforts they’ve nominated in recent years. A true meta gem that I can’t stop smiling about.

Best Directing

Who Will Win: The Daniels. One might never have expected the minds behind Swiss Army Man would be frontrunners for an Oscar, but somehow they managed to land on the right chemistry with their subject matter and turned Everything into one of the most beloved films so far this decade. Sure, they lost BAFTA to Edward Berger, but he’s not nominated at the Oscars. They won every major precursor besides (and a total of 63.16% of the overall precursors), including the mother of them all: Directors Guild of America. There’s little standing in their way at this point.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Steven Spielberg, Martin McDonagh. That is unless two under rewarded directors come out on top. Spielberg is probably the most likely to earn this on career achievement points alone. It’s a personal film from a celebrated filmmaker and that might be enough to put him over the top. That said, the DGA is fertile ground for a Spielberg moment and they didn’t go for him, so it’s not likely in the cards.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Martin McDonagh. While I wasn’t as impressed with Three Billboards as some, In Bruges and The Banshees of Inisherin prove McDonagh one of the great filmmakers. Taking on topics that require introspection rather than face-valuation, his work in Banshees is passionate, endearing, and delightfully dark.

Best Film Editing

Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. When talking about Quan, I mentioned it was only the third most recognized effort of the year. The second was Avatar: The Way of Water in Visual Effects. Here’s the first place finisher. With a staggering 86.21%, it was easily the most acknowledged editing job of the year. Even at BAFTA where they were lukewarm on the film altogether, it managed to win the prize. As such, this is probalby the most settled category, though one can never guarantee anything up against Top Gun: Maverick, another heavily edited feature.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Top Gun: Maverick. While it was heavily edited, the editing made the film fly by (pun partially intended). It was an engaging film that never felt dull and that’s thanks to the editing. It could well be the film that wins out in the end, but I’m doubtful.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Everything Everywhere All at Once. While I do love the editing in Top Gun, the work in Everything is one of the few elements of the film I will unabashedly praise. To keep so many storylines and timelines cohesive, it took a gargantuan task and they nailed it.

Best Production Design

Who Will Win: Babylon. What should have sealed the deal for Babylon were victories at the Art Directors Guild and BAFTA, but some still aren’t content calling it the frontrunner and want to suggest something else will topple the film. Sure, it’s a divisive film, but its production values were never in question and although some say Elvis or All Quiet on the Western Front could win, Babylon faced off against both at BAFTA and DGA and still managed to win. Not much stands in its way and at 54.55% of precursors, it’s certainly got solid backing.
Who Could Potentially Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis. The difficult part about assessing All Quiet‘s strength is that it seemed to come out of nowhere to dominate the BAFTA and Oscar nominations, which put it into the limelight at just the right moment. Yet, this isn’t one of the places its suddenly garnered attention. Elvis, on the other hand, has a much better claim to being a contender. Every time Catherin Martin has been nominated in both Production Design and Costume Design, she’s won both prizes. The data set is small as she’s only been nominated for both twice now, but that’s still impressive. When she’s nominated alone for either category, she loses. That likely changes this year.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Babylon. Anyone who’s seen the film might not think much of the latter scenes of the film, but in the first hour, there’s more than enough production design to sate anyone’s interests. The impressive desert-set locales with dozens of film stages showcased in rapid succession before landing on the primary set for that moment, a saloon. Before that, you had the impressive remote estate. Add just those moments together and you have something impressive, but recreating an early sound stage for a pivotal scene in the second act of the film, was also superb. Altogether, this is an impressive bit of production design even if the film around it is less impressive.

Best International Film

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. With RRR ineligible and Decision to Leave missing the final five, there seems little in the way of late-breaking All Quiet on the Western Front taking this award. RRR had 37.74% of the prizes while Decision had 28.3%. All Quiet only picked up five awards for a paltry 9.43%. That still ranks it third most honored in the foreign language categories, so that might well be it. Of course winning at BAFTA certainly bolstered its chances.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Argentina, 1985. Some thought that barring All Quiet, Argentina, 1985 would be the next inheritor of the crown. Certainly it has the right profile, but apart from being nominated for several prizes, the only one of merit it won was the Golden Globe and that’s not very predictive. EO got two of the biggest critics prizes from New York and Los Angeles, so really it should be in the race, but ultimately it doesn’t have a chance against a juggernaut with eight other Oscar nominations.

Best Documentary Feature

Who Will Win: Navalny. Early on, it seemed like Good Night Oppy was bound to be the frontrunner, but it didn’t even make the shortlist. That threw the category into turmoil. BAFTA then picked Navalny, the first organization to do so. PGA and DGA followed suit and no we have the prohibitive frontrunner.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. The two most honored documentaries of the year were actually nominated. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed won 31.3% of prizes while Fire of Love picked up 24.14%. Both of these outstrip the once-frontrunner Good Night Oppy, which got 15.52%. Navalny, by contrast, only has 5.17%. Yet, neither of those films seems to have caught on in an obvious way and with neither of them having a major televised award, they don’t really stand much of a chance.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh. All year, Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett have been a delicate dance of awards, with each picking up a nearly equal number. Then the televised awards began and while Blanchett took the BAFTA, Yeoh cleaned up with the Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild and both claimed the Globe. Now, Yeoh has the clear majority with 51.72% of prizes and Blanchett only has 39.66%.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Cate Blanchett. Still, Blanchett remains a threat thanks to BAFTA. No one is doubting that Blanchett should get a third Oscar. She’s one of this generation’s greatest actors. The problem is she’s so good so often that a lot of people would rather recognize Yeoh, who hasn’t had a lot of options in the past to get her to this point. While I think Blanchett might still have a chance, Yeoh seems to be running away with this unlike what’s happening in the Best Supporting Actress category.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Michelle Yeoh. Yeoh has always been an actor whose performances I’ve admired. Even in her less award-worthy films, she’s a bright spot. She does great work here and while I’m not the biggest fan of the film itself, if no one else in the film were to win but Yeoh, I’d be comfortable with that.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Who Will Win: Stranger at the Gate. A surprisingly eclectic batch of documentary shorts are on display this year and none of them seem Oscar baity, which is a good thing. That said, the one with the most emotional pull that’s also topical is Stranger at the Gate. I give the short a slight edge over the rest of the field, but anything can and does happen in this category.
Who Could Potentially Upset: The Elephant Whisperers. The only other documentary that seems to stand a shot at claiming the prize other than Stranger is The Elephant Whisperers, which is emotionally charged even if its topicality is briefly referenced and not reinforced. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one win either.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Haulout. I don’t think this one has much of a shot, but it’s a stark short that immediately connected with me. The audience is left to puzzle out what’s happening on their own, but ultimately you understand the stakes and why its crucial. What sells it best is its glorious cinematography. It takes the bleak and desolate landscape and captures it with vibrancy that one wouldn’t typically expect. Then there’s that one scene with a mother and her calf that resonates emotionally. It’s easily the most impressive of this group, in my opinion, so I’d be delighted if it won.

Best Live Action Short Film

Who Will Win: Le Pupille. To say this batch of live action shorts is eclectic would be perhaps too broad. Ultimately, they are rather narrow in their aims, but they cover such disparate subjects that it’s hard to say which of them is the most impactful. The most “original” of these features is Le Pupille, which has the added benefit of having Alfonso Cuaron’s name attached to it. This part-musical, part-comedy, part-anti-fascist fable has enough appeal that it could bring in several votes.
Who Could Potentially Upset: The Red Suitcase, An Irish Goodbye. On the other hand, none have a more modern emotional impact than The Red Suitcase. Of the live action shorts, this one has the most economy of effort with each shot carefully laying out the case for the remainder of its length and building dramatically until its heartbreaking, yet hopeful finally. If you can hit the hearts of Academy members, it could put you over the top and this one has the best opportunity to do that when Pupille fails to really do that. You also can’t rule out the more traditional short An Irish Goodbye. It’s sentimental and obvious, but older Academy members tend to love that, so it has a shot.
What I Would Like to See Happen: The Red Suitcase. The artistry in Pupille cannot be denied, but in terms of quality, Red Suitcase is far superior. Telling the story of a young Iranian woman traveling to Belgium in hopes of escaping a culture reliant on treating women and girls as commodities, this one hits hard and fast without the excesses one has come to expect from filmmakers with something to prove. Elegant and impactful. I’d be ecstatic if this one won.

Best Costume Design

Who Will Win: Elvis. Costume design isn’t a category many organizations have, so we have a limited playing field from which to assess combatants’ strengths. The Costume Designers Guild is probably the most important, but seeing what BAFTA does is also pivotal. Elvis has in its favor flashiness. Presley was almost as well known for his flashy styles as Elton John was. That excess and Catherine Martin’s pedigree, put her on a clear path towards victory. It won at BAFTA and the CDG, which suggests it’s the one to beat. Winning only 27.78% of prizes is not a profile in success, but when two of Elvis‘ five awards came from prominent groups, it may as well tell you everything.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once. On the other hand, the most honored costume work this year was Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That film picked up three more prizes than Elvis did, finishing with 44.44% of the awards. That’s not terribly exciting and doesn’t sound like a steamroller. It’s lone major prize was from the Critics Choice Association, which certainly says something, but the Academy isn’t in the habit of honoring sequels, better yet Marvel movies, so Elvis might have one up on it. Babylon is nominated in both this and Production Design, like Elvis, and it used to be a common occurrence where these two categories linked, especially in Catherine Martin’s last two goes at them. Babylon only won a single award, so it can’t be thought a contender by many. Then again, if Everything Everywhere All at Once proves a sweeper, it could pick up this prize as well and would be supported by four precursors, including the CDG, who has three categories from which winners can carry over tot he Oscars.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. As much as I respect the costume design work in these contenders, the sheer volume and uniqueness of the Black Panther costumes easily merits its win here. We’ve seen the stuff in Elvis and Babylon before, so I’m not impressed. Everything had solid work, but it felt like only a minor part of its identity where as traditional African garb was a major element of Wakanda Forever and for that reason, I’d love to see it win.

Best Sound

Who Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick. There are certain categories that don’t have a lot of precursor action and Best Sound is one of those. Presented by very few organizations, there aren’t many prizes for films to win. Top Gun: Maverick won 66.67% of them. That includes the Cinema Audio Society, the guild for sound mixers.
Who Could Potentially Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s an impressive set of credentials, but BAFTA went for All Quiet on the Western Front, the only sound prize the film has won. The Academy does love its war films, but they were most frequently recognized in the sound editing category, which no longer exists. Still, if there’s a film that can beat Top Gun, it’s All Quiet. Though they love musicals too, so Elvis could also be a contender.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Top Gun: Maverick. It’s seldom that I find myself so enraptured by a soundscape, but Top Gun: Maverick did it. When you’re in the cockpit, the array of sounds and exterior forces are expertly crafted and immersive and that’s exactly what this award is intended to recognize.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: Women Talking. The problem with this category is that the major contenders just didn’t wrack up much attention. Most of the big screenplays were over in the original side such that 21 victories in adapted screenplay gave you 55.26% while 26 victories in original only netted 50%. This can be attributed to a lot of organizations who give a single award for screenplay and it’s almost always to an original. Thus, it’s hard to draw many conclusions. Still, we’ll try. That 55.26% belongs to Women Talking. Although the film came up short in the nominations department despite strong reviews, Sarah Polley’s screenplay was enthusiastically support. The next biggest vote-getter was Glass Onion, which had a narrow 15.79% of votes. So why is this category not a slam dunk? All Quiet on the Western Front.
Who Could Potentially Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front. This film emerged late in the game and apart from its first-of-the-season National Board of Review citation, it didn’t show up again as a winner until BAFTA. That high profile win may be because of the film’s dominance at the BAFTA awards, but it could be sign of a strength for the film. Still, with the other televised awards and organizations on its side (WGA, USC Scripter, and Critics Choice Association), Women Talking still has the most going for it to win, but it’s far from a sure thing at this point.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Women Talking. Sarah Polley has been deserving of recognition for years, but the Academy has barely given her the time of day. Her groundbreaking documentary Stories We Tell was one of the most nominated of its year, but the Academy didn’t go for it. Away from Her was another strong performer with critics and she did get a nomination then, but she lost as did the only other nominee from the film, Julie Christie. With the kind of year she’s had and the prominence of her film, I’d love to see her win.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Who Will Win: Elvis. Moving on down the list of fewest precursors is Makeup & Hairstyling. Once again, the only two major groups are the guild and BAFTA. BAFTA went to Elvis. That’s likely because the film spans multiple eras and that requires a lot of extra makeup, even if only some of it was for Col. Tom Parker. It also was the only film to win multiple awards from the guild, so it’s the primary contender.
Who Could Potentially Upset: The Whale, All Quiet on the Western Front. This category sometimes delivers upsets and so we shouldn’t consider Elvis certain until the final envelope is opened. The Whale has the main award from the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists guild and the prosthetic work to make Brendan Fraser severely obese is well regarded and received one fewer precursors than Elvis. All Quiet on the Western Front is also a sleeper contender for the award. Although Black Panther and The Batman were the only other nominees with awards, All Quiet has come on strong at the right moment. That said, all the majors went to Elvis, so it is the frontrunner.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. While Elvis has a lot of makeup and Whale has a single figure, Black Panther has a large number of Talokan characters to do makeup on, plus the more traditional makeup and hairstyles of the Wakandans. Ultimately, they contributed to the immersive ambience of the film and that’s worth recognizing.

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. With only BAFTA on its side, All Quiet on the Western Front has a solid claim to the mantle of frontrunner for the Oscar. Its cinematography has been well praised and that might be enough to put it over, with so few other options. Yet, it feels like a very weak frontrunner.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Elvis. Let’s talk about the 800 lb. gorilla in the room: Top Gun: Maverick. The clearly dominant cinematography of the year was obvious early on. It claimed 60.87% of the precursor prizes with its most visible win being from the Critics Choice Association. Yet, it wasn’t nominated. Then it lost at the American Society of Cinematographers to Elvis. It was the first cinematography precursor the film had picked up and while it didn’t seem to be a likely choice, it makes a lot more sense in hindsight. The film is certainly flashy, but having the first woman to win the ASC not also win the Oscar might influence votes. That said, voting was already underway and the victory might have come too late to change minds.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Tár. Without having seen any of the contenders, I feel at a disadvantage making this choice, but Tár is a well-crafted film and looks fantastic. On top of that, the film looks like it will go home empty-handed and this would be a nice consolation prize.

Best Original Score

Who Will Win: Babylon. There are no guilds for music. There’s NASCAP and the Grammys, but the former announces too late and the latter doesn’t include late-year releases. So, we’re left to look at the handful of precursors who give out the prize. A third of those went to Babylon with its jazzy period score and that might be the best indication of people liking it. It won the Globe, after all. That’s it, though, so it’s a soft frontrunner.
Who Could Potentially Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Fabelmans. BAFTA went to All Quiet, though they showed a clear favoritism to the film. Still, you can’t overlook that. Ultimately, it comes down to which score makes the most impact in the film and while Babylon‘s fits, All Quiet likely has the more emotional score and can’t be counted out for a victory. Don’t count out John Williams either. He doesn’t have many scores years left to write music so this could be the last chance to honor him.
What I Would Like to See Happen: The Banshees of Inisherin. Yet, the score that deserves the praise is The Banshees of Inisherin. Carter Burwell keeps us locked in a bygone era and the melodies he creates are wonderful.

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin. Here’s another category where two contenders have been duking it out all year and, unlike Best Actress, this one hasn’t produced a more likely winner than the other. Both of the frontrunning films have a chance. On Inisherin‘s side are the Golden Globe and BAFTA. The latter could be chalked up to hometown advantage. That could be supported by wins from Condon and Keoghan, but it lost every other award it was nominated for.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Everything Everywhere All at Once. Further, the near-shut-out of Everything at BAFTA suggested some bias there. Everything has 50% of the precursor awards including Writers Guild of America and the Critics Choice Association. Neither exactly has the profile for a slum dunk, which is why this is one of the toughest categories to pick. With Everything likely to win several above the line awards and Inisherin in line to win almost nothing, this might be the one place the Academy can agree to recognize Martin McDonagh even though he was looked over for then-slam-dunk Three Billboards.
What I Would Like to See Happen: The Banshees of Inisherin. As creative and original as Everything is, its screenplay is one of its worst elements. The themes are simplistically drawn and their observations obvious at best. Banshees on the other hand, makes the viewer pay attention and slowly reveals its themes over the course of the film and they are wryly written. It’s a painterly screenplay that does a lot of the heavy lifting for the film outside of the performances and it deserves recognition for that.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis. Until SAG, it seemed certain that Angela Bassett would be winning the Oscar. She won the Golden Globe and then the Critics Choice Association Award. Yet, she faltered at BAFTA and then lost at SAG. Bassett and the winner of those two awards are the prime contenders and anyone else winning would be a shock, though not an unpleasant one (more on that in a minute). Jamie Lee Curtis’ very high profile win at SAG may have come at just the right time. She’s a longtime actor who has seldom been in the Oscar conversation (I can remember chatter around her True Lies performance and a smattering of talk for Knives Out, but overall, she really hasn’t been much of an Oscar target. Many of us figured she might one day get an honorary. However, SAG proved that Bassett wasn’t undefeatable. Further, it put some of us into thinking that we expect Bassett to have other opportunities in the future for Oscar accolades. For Curtis, this may be her only shot. That’s the only reason I’m currently predicting a win. If enough voters feel the same way, she could win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon. Bassett isn’t entirely out of the competition yet, she does have those two high profile awards plus she’s a beloved industry figure that many feel should have an Oscar. That this is only her second nomination ever is a bit of a shocker, but she has been doing a lot of television as well and she’s been nominated for seven Emmys to date. Yet, she still hasn’t won. If SAG wasn’t going to crown her the victor, that sheds much doubt on her chances with the less populist, more stodgy Academy. And that might be another reason to think about BAFTA winner Kerry Condon. She gives a hell of a performance in a Best Picture nominee that might go home empty-handed. Martin McDonagh is great at directing actors to Oscars, so she could win, but I suspect sentiment may ultimately win out.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Stephanie Hsu. Yet, above all of these performances, each of them great, its Stephanie Hsu in Everything that I’d be rooting for. I wasn’t even sure if she could pull off a nomination and that would have been a shame, but she did and now we’re here. I think hers is easily the best in the film, better even than Yeoh and Quan. That she has to do all of this against high wattage power players is no small feat and she keeps Joy grounded and believable even when she’s doing and saying some outlandish things. I’d be delighted if she could win and perhaps she’s rising at the right moment. Condon has 33.33% of the precursors, Bassett has 9.8%, and Curtis has 13.73%. Yet, in spite of SAG, Hsu won at both the Latino Journalists awards and the OFTA, bringing her to a second-place finish of 15.69%, above both Bassett and Condon. While I don’t think either of those orgs forecast a sea change, it would be interesting if her performance managed to quietly emerge as the one to beat.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Austin Butler. This is probably the most nail-bitery of the nail biters. Two strong contenders eventually became three and that third is the one that seems destined to win out in the end. Austin Butler’s performance as Elvis Presley earned a lot of praise for the young actor when the film first opened. He spent months conditioning his voice into sounding like the King and he put a lot of effort into the performance. That’s very appealing to some voters, especially actors. His win at the Golden Globes wasn’t out of nowhere since he was up against a fellow nominee in this category, Brendan Fraser, who had said he wasn’t attending the Globes due to a past sexual harassment incident. Thus, they decided to go with Butler. Then again, BAFTA also went with Butler and Elvis is a very American figure and the Brits seldom like to honor those kinds of characters. This only strengthened his candidacy. His only other award was from the Satellites and they don’t really matter in the grand scheme of thing. That gives him a paltry 5.66% of Best Actor awards. That might not be enough to win.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell. Throughout Oscar season, the Best Actor race was shaping up to be one between longtime actors who got juicy roles that finally put them on a collision course with Oscar. Fraser was once a major box office draw, but he drew a smattering of Oscar chatter for his supporting performance in Gods and Monsters opposite Ian McKellen. That didn’t materialize, but after decades in fallow fields, Fraser finally got his comeback story and pulled in 33.96% of precursor awards and, for the longest time, seemed to be neck-and-neck with Colin Farrell. On Fraser’s side are SAG and the Critics Choice Association. Farrell also spent time as a box office draw, though his successes were minor comparatively. He was thought to be a bad boy and pretty boy actor in almost equal measure and never seemed interested in serious acting. While he’s done some of that in the last several years, it was his performance in Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges that really ignited interest in his acting chops. He’s never exactly gone away and doesn’t have a comeback story to hitch his wagon to, but he’s long since proven that he’s a consistently good actor, just that he’s bad at picking projects. In the end, Farrell claimed 58.49% of the acting awards, but with only the Globes to support his candidacy, he has steadily diminished to third place behind Butler and Fraser. In any other year, he’d be the hands-down winner, but his performance isn’t full of histrionics or bold expressions and that’s hurting his chances.
What I Would Like to See Happen: Colin Farrell. Farrell has been rather impressive in the last few years and this has to be his most complex, nuanced, and richly detailed performances ever. He’s worked very hard to rebrand himself as a serious actor and the results can’t be any clearer. This is a performance that will far outlive his contemporaries and he deserves the award for it.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s difficult to argue with Everything Everywhere All at Once being the frontrunner for Best Picture. The film has won an impressive array of awards, 62.71% of Best Picture prizes. It won major prizes at the Producers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice Association. It is the unquestioned leader of the pack, but if the winning the preponderance of awards meant anything in the age of the weighted ballot, The Power of the Dog would be a Best Picture winner.
Who Could Potentially Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin. The zeitgeist has spoken and Everything seems to be the frontrunner fairly easily. Yet, it’s not home free. All Quiet on the Western Front dominated the BAFTAs and The Banshees of Inisherin won the Golden Globe. Those are pretty impressive feats against a seeming juggernaut like Everything. That alone should give everyone pause about its chances. Yet, PGA uses the weighted ballot as well and they went with Everything despite being rather stodgy sometimes. Parasite proved that edgy can win at the Oscars as it felt like it was far from a broadly admired film. All Quiet has the best chances of winning in a weighted ballot because it can broadly appeal to multiple demographics, old and young. It’s an anti-war film and its 1928 predecessor itself is an Oscar winner, so there’s some historical context for a win. Banshees might be too out there for some members. It’s graphic in places and that will turn the same voters off that would turn away from Everything, older, traditionalist voters. All Quiet would appeal to them, as would Top Gun: Maverick, which is the kind of blockbuster picture that used to dominate these awards. Trendlines favor Everything, but it’s no more a slam dunk choice than Power of the Dog was last year and we all know how depressingly that went.
What I Would Like to See Happen: The Banshees of Inisherin. Metaphor hangs heavy over The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s not just a film about shattered friendships in the time of The Troubles in Ireland, but it’s sagely written, expertly acted, and gorgeously filmed. It’s a movie that stands apart from the modern era with modern sensibilities, but classic style. I’d be very pleased with a win for the film, but this kind of film just doesn’t win anymore, which is a shame.

And that’s the 95th Academy Awards. As much as I love Oscar season, I will most certainly be taking a break after I do my post-Oscars write-up. Our first predictions for the 95th will be coming out sometime in April. So enjoy the run-up to the big night and hopefully, we’ll all be pleasantly surprised and not have another Crash/Green Book fiasco.