94th Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 16

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

We’re down to the final awards of the year. Oscar voting ends on Tuesday, so what’s happened to that point will matter, not like the awards that come this week before the Oscars will change that.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Final Week 17 (TUE-MON)

Tuesday, Mar. 22 – Academy Awards Voting Ends (Official)
Wednesday, Mar. 23 – Casting Society (Awards) (Official)
Friday, Mar. 25 – Publicists (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Mar. 26 – Razzies (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Mar. 27 – Academy Awards (94th) (Official)

Big Winners

CODA has gone from also-ran to frontrunner in the span of a few weeks. It all started at SAG and continued this weekend at PGA and WGA. That’s a pretty strong group of prizes and with The Power of the Dog being dominant for so long, it’s sure possible that this could be a sign of a come-from-behind victory.
Dune nabbed the awards from both the Motion Picture Sound Editors and Cinema Audio Society, which means Sound looks to be squarely in its pocket. Cinematography, on the other hand, in spite of winning at ASC, is still a neck-and-neck race with The Power of the Dog, though Dune‘s support seems to be quite extensive.
Encanto had another good rebound weekend as it picked up the PGA prize as well as the CAS one, though that one doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things.
Summer of Soul had been steamrolling the season, but Flee had shown just enough strength to make it a race. PGA settled that dispute this weekend, though.

Big Losers

The Power of the Dog. The high profile PGA loss isn’t a good sign for the film, which may have peaked early. It’s still the most honored film of the year, but its fate seems to be in the hands of the preferential ballot.
The Mitchells vs. the Machines may have had a good weekend with the Annie Awards, but the loss at PGA is a bad sign. That it so dominated the critics prizes, but then faltered in the home stretch is unfortunate for the film.
Belfast really needed a win from the PGA to remain in the conversation as a potential The Power of the Dog killer, but CODA has now eclipsed it. That the film has failed to pick up anything resembling a bellwether prize means it’s probably toast.

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