92nd Oscar Nominations

There were a lot of omissions and handful of unexpected results. Nine nominees in Best Picture and all but one of them received more than 5 nominations. Joker did exceptionally well, earning nominations in categories that weren’t exactly expected (see Costume Design). It was the top nominated film of the year, just like at BAFTA and we now have to reconsider all of our predictions when BAFTA announces. Little Women was unfairly shafted and #OscarsSoWhite might trend again when only two people of color were nominated for acting (Cynthia Erivo and Antonio Banderas). Parasite underperformed a bit while Jojo Rabbit did slightly better than expected.

My prediction rate was just under 75%, which is my lowest since 2015; however, it’s also tied for my 5th best overall nomination predictions performance ever. My biggest issues were the short film categories, which I did exceptionally bad in this year, but which are always my roughest places. My prediction rate in the top six categories is a tie for my second-best performance ever (30 out of 34 nominees). My writing and music predictions were tied for my highest. My tech predictions were pretty low as well. I correctly predicted all of the Best Picture nominees (matching the top nine on my list), Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, and Cinematography.

Now, to the nominations. The only real surprises came below the line as the above-the-line nominees were largely expected or close to expected. Frozen II shut out of Animated Feature and that could be considered something of a surprise. The BAFTA five were nominated at the Oscars, once again shutting out all women, specifically the deserving Greta Gerwig. The Academy has always been behind the curve, though, so this isn’t surprising. If I hadn’t changed my Visual Effects or Makeup predictions within the last week, I would have been perfect in the former, and better in the latter. Dolemite Is My Name was completely shut out and the Costume Design category is probably the dullest it’s ever been. Little Women got four major nominations and a couple of minor ones, but missing Production Design was the bellwether we were expecting.

Now, as to what can and can’t win Best Picture. We look primarily at directing, acting, writing, and editing nominations to determine likelihood. Joker and The Irishman are the only ones with nominations in all four areas. Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, and Parasite have nominations in three of the areas. Little Women, Marriage Story, and 1917 have nominations in two. That leaves Ford v Ferrari with nominations in only one.

All four categories have intermittently been missed by a nominee.

NOTES: David Rubin presents the Academy Museum before nominations. Editing, though announced as part of the Group 1 nominees, was not announced during Group 1.

Award Tallies

(11) Joker
(10) The Irishman, 1917, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
(6) Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story, Parasite
(4) Ford v Ferrari
(3) Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes

The Awards

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari – Fox (Disney) (c-3/27, n-11/15) — Borderline —
The Irishman – Netflix (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Lock —
Jojo Rabbit – Fox Searchlight (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Good —
Joker – Warner Bros. (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Good —
Little Women – Columbia (Sony) (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Good —
Marriage Story – Netflix (c-8/25, n-8/25) — Near Lock —
1917 – Universal (c-3/27, n-3/27, o-12/15) — Lock —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Columbia (Sony) (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Lock —
Parasite – Neon (c-8/18, n-12/15) — Near Lock —

Best Animated Film

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – Universal (c-3/27, n-12/15) — Good —
I Lost My Body – Netflix (c-10/16, n-12/15) — Good —
Klaus – Netflix (c-10/16) — Borderline —
Missing Link – Laika (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Good —
Toy Story 4 – Pixar (Disney) (c-3/27, n-3/27, o-3/27) — Lock —

Best Directing

The Irishman – Martin Scorsese (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Lock —
Joker – Todd Phillips (c-1/8) — Borderline —
1917 – Sam Mendes (c-3/27, n-12/15, o-12/15) — Near Lock —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Lock —
Parasite – Joon-ho Bong (c-8/18, n-12/15) — Near Lock —

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory (c-8/18, n-8/18) — Good —
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (c-3/27, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Adam Driver – Marriage Story (c-8/25, n-8/25, o-12/15) — Lock —
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (c-3/27, n-9/15) — Lock —
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (c-9/15) — Borderline —

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet (c-5/7) — Borderline —
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (c-8/25, n-11/15) — Lock —
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (c-3/27, n-1/8) — Borderline —
Charlize Theron – Bombshell (c-8/25, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Renée Zellweger – Judy (c-5/19, n-5/19, o-7/16) — Lock —

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (c-3/27, n-12/15) — Good —
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (c-9/15, n-1/8) — Borderline —
Al Pacino – The Irishman (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Good —
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (c-3/27, n-12/15) — Lock —
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (c-3/27, n-12/15, o-12/15) — Lock —

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Laura Dern – Marriage Story (c-8/25, n-10/20, o-12/15) — Lock —
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (c-12/15, n-1/8) — Borderline —
Florence Pugh – Little Women (c-3/27, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
Margot Robbie – Bombshell (c-8/25, n-12/15) — Near Lock —

Best Original Screenplay

Knives Out – Rian Johnson (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Good —
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach (c-8/25, n-8/25) — Near Lock —
1917 – Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns (c-3/27) — Borderline —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Lock —
Parasite – Bong Joon-ho, Jin, Won-han (c-12/15, n-12/15, o-1/8) — Lock —

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman – Steven Zaillian (c-3/27, n-3/27, o-3/27) — Lock —
Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Near Lock —
Joker – Todd Phillips, Scott Silver (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Little Women – Greta Gerwig (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Near Lock —
The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten (c-9/15, n-1/8) — Borderline —

Best Original Song

I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away – Toy Story 4 (c-3/27) — Borderline —
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Rocketman (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-1/8) — Lock —
I’m Standing with You – Breakthrough (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Into the Unknown – Frozen II (c-3/27, n-12/16) — Good —
Stand Up – Harriet (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Good —

Best Original Score

Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Near Lock —
Little Women – Alexandre Desplat (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Near Lock —
Marriage Story – Randy Newman (c-8/25, n-1/8) — Near Lock —
1917 – Thomas Newman (c-3/27, n-12/16, o-12/16) — Lock —
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Good —

Best Film Editing

Ford v Ferrari – Michael McCusker (c-3/27, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Borderline —
Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles (c-9/15) — Borderline —
Joker
Parasite – Jinmo Yang (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Good —

Best Cinematography

The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Near Lock —
Joker – Lawrence Sher (c-12/15, n-1/8) — Borderline —
The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
1917 – Roger Deakins (c-3/27, n-9/15, o-12/15) — Lock —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Robert Richardson (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Lock —

Best Production Design

The Irishman – Bob Shaw; Regina Graves (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Near Lock —
Jojo Rabbit – Ra Vincent; Nora Sopkova (c-9/15) — Borderline —
1917 – Dennis Gassner (c-3/27, n-7/16, o-12/15) — Lock —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Near Lock —
Parasite – Lee Ha-jun (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —

Best Costume Design

The Irishman – Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell (c-3/27) — Borderline —
Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo (c-9/15, n-9/15) — Borderline —
Joker
Little Women – Jacqueline Durran (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Borderline —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Borderline —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Bombshell (c-11/15, n-12/16) — Near Lock —
Joker (c-11/11, n-11/11) — Good —
Judy (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (c-12/16) — Borderline —
1917 (c-3/27) — Borderline —

Best Sound Mixing

Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari (c-3/27, n-11/15) — Good —
Joker (c-12/15) — Borderline —
1917 (c-3/27, n-8/18, o-9/15) — Lock —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Good —

Best Sound Editing

Ford v Ferrari (c-3/27, n-3/27) — Good —
Joker (c-12/15, n-1/8) — Good —
1917 (c-3/27, n-3/27, o-3/27) — Lock —
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (c-3/27, n-7/16) — Good —

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Endgame (c-3/27, n-3/27, o-3/27) — Lock —
The Irishman (c-9/15, n-11/15) — Borderline —
The Lion King (c-3/27) — Borderline —
1917 (c-3/27, n-12/16) — Borderline —
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (c-3/27, n-7/16) — Good —

Best International Film

Corpus Christi – Poland – Jan Komasa (c-10/7) — Borderline —
Honeyland – North Macedonia – Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska (c-10/7) — Borderline —
Les Misérables – France – Ladj Ly (c-10/7, n-10/7) — Good —
Pain and Glory – Spain – Pedro Almodóvar (c-10/7, n-10/7) — Near Lock —
Parasite – South Korea – Bong Joon Ho (c-10/7, n-10/7, o-10/7) — Lock —