As the OFCS & GALECA reach their screening deadlines, my mailbox is becoming overstuffed with screeners. Here are the metric ton I’ve received this week.

22 July

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: Paul Greengrass has been an Academy favorite before, but this film comes out of left field with virtually no buzz and no chance.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture
• Directing (Paul Greengrass)
• Screenplay (Paul Greengrass)
• Actor (Anders Danielsen Lie)
• Supporting Actor (Jonas Strand Gravli)
• Supporting Actress (Seda Witt, Maria Bock)
• Cinematography (Pal Ulvik Rokseth)
• Production Design (Liv Ask, Louise Andersson, Carl Andreas Thiis Evensen)
• Film Editing (William Goldenberg)
• Costume Design (Margret Einarsdottir)
• Visual Effects (Ged Wright, Pal Morten Hverven)
• Sound Mixing (Ad Stoop, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor)
• Sound Editing (Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Vidar Svendsen)
• Original Score (Sune Martin)

Active Measures

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: This documentary hasn’t been actively advertised for Oscar consideration and hasn’t made an appearance at the precursors yet.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

Assassination Nation

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: This is a film that would never appeal to Academy voters.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: While Joel & Ethan Coen are definitely Oscar darlings, this Netflix anthology film has generated minimal buzz. While there are some small groups that have recognized it, there hasn’t been a lot of attention on the film, nor any significant buzz.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture
• Director (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
• Original Screenplay (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
• Supporting Actor (Tim Blake Nelson, Bill Heck, Tom Waits)
• Supporting Actress (Zoe Kazan)
• Cinematography (Bruno Delbonnel)
• Production Design (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)
• Film Editing (Roderick Jaynes)
• Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
• Visual Effects (Alex Lemke, Michael Huber)
• Sound Mixing (Peter F. Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff)
• Sound Editing (Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Cydney Cornell, Christien Tinsley)
• Original Score (Carter Burwell)
• Original Song (“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – David Rawlings, Gillian Welch)

Border

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: Sweden’s submission for the Foreign Language Film category hasn’t been picking up a lot of steam this awards season in spite of solid reviews.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

Borg vs. McEnroe

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: This film was barely a presence at the box office and has been barely a presence in the Oscar competition.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

Dumplin’

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: The film isn’t particularly well liked, but its Golden Globe nomination for Best Original Song puts it into contention. While some feel that the song is not likely to register with the Academy, Dolly Parton’s name attached will be enough to get people to listen, which might be enough to get people to listen to it.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Original Song (“Girl in the Movies” – Dolly Parton, Linda Perry)
• Picture (Michael Costigan, Mohamed AlRafi, Kristin Hahn, Trish Hofmann)
• Director (Anne Fletcher)
• Adapted Screenplay (Kristin Hahn)
• Cinematography (Elliot Davis)
• Production Design (Elizabeth Jones)
• Film Editing (Emma E. Hickox)
• Costume Design (Bina Daigeler)
• Sound Mixing (Dick Hansen, Jon Taylor)
• Sound Editing (Karen Baker Landers)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Fleur Morell, Karyn Alexander)
• Original Score (Jake Monaco)

Gemini

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: This film has had virtually no buzz or support this Oscar season.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

McQueen

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: There has been almost no chatter about this documentary and it hasn’t been nominated as yet, so I don’t think it has much of a shot.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: While the film isn’t going to compete in the top tier categories at the Oscars, it’s a competitor in at least three categories at the Oscars: Film Editing, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing. I suspect that it comes up short, but if it gets a nod, Sound Editing is probably its best shot.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture (Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, Jake Myers, J.J. Abrams)
• Director (Christopher McQuarrie)
• Adapted Screenplay (Christopher McQuarrie)
• Actor (Tom Cruise)
• Supporting Actress (Rebecca Ferguson, Angela Bassett, Vanessa Kirby, Michelle Monaghan)
• Supporting Actor (Henry Cavill, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Sean Harris, Alec Baldwin)
• Cinematography (Rob Hardy)
• Production Design (Peter Wenham, Jille Azis)
• Film Editing (Eddie Hamilton)
• Costume Design (Jeffrey Kurland)
• Original Score (Lorne Balfe)
• Sound Mixing (Christopher Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith, Gilbert Lake)
• Sound Editing (James H. Mather)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Sarah Monzani, Alibhe Lernass, Jacqueline Rathore, Alice Moore)
• Visual Effects (Jody Johnson)

Monsters and Men

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: The film was well received, but has had almost no support during the Oscar campaigning season and without some familiarity, it’s not likely to go anywhere.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

Private Life

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: While the film has received some precursor attention, this is the kind of indie film that gets nominated at the Spirit Awards, but doesn’t get much attention outside of them.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture
• Director (Tamara Jenkins)
• Original Screenplay (Tamara Jenkins)
• Actress (Kathryn Hahn)
• Supporting Actor (Paul Giamatti)
• Supporting Actress (Kayli Carter, Molly Shannon)
• Cinematography (Christos Voudouris)
• Production Design (Ford Wheeler, Jacqueline Jacobson Scarfo)
• Film Editing (Brian A. Kates)
• Costume Design (Leah Katznelson)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Angel DeAngelis, Brenna McGuire)
• Sound Mixing (Matthew Price, Dominick Tavella, Jacob Ribicoff, Lewis Goldstein)
• Sound Editing (Jacob Ribicoff)
• Visual Effects (Michael Huber, Alex Lemke)

Quincy

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: Chosen as Best Documentary by the African American Film Critics Association is a small boon, but the film hasn’t been getting much love from other critics groups, which could hinder its chances with the Academy.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Documentary Feature
• Director (Rashida Jones, Alan Hicks)
• Original Screenplay (Rashida Jones, Alan Hicks)
• Cinematography (Rory Anderson)
• Film Editing (Will Znidaric, Andrew McAllister)
• Sound Mixing (Jonathan Wales)
• Sound Editing (Danika Wikke)
• Original Score (Quincy Jones)
• Original Song (“Keep Reachin’” – Mark Ronson, Jeff Bhasker, Andrew Wyatt, Chaka Khan)

Revenge

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: The film that got a lot of solid reviews early in the year, but it didn’t hang onto attention, which means it’s probably not much of a competitor.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested

Roma

Oscar Chances: Excellent: One of this year’s top tier Oscar contenders, Alfonso Cuaron’s film is competing in numerous categories, including Best Picture, Directing, Actress, Original Screenplay, and several down-ballot categories. It probably won’t secure double-digit nominations, but it will do well enough to secure a Best Foreign Language Film award and possibly an award for Directing and/or Cinematography.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture
• Foreign Language Film (Alfonso Cuaron)
• Direcotr (Alfonso Cuaron)
• Original Screenplay (Alfonso Cuaron)
• Actress (Yalitza Aparicio)
• Supporting Actor (Jorge Antonio Guerroro Martinez)
• Supporting Actress (Marina De Tavira)
• Cinematography (Alfonso Cuaron)
• Production Design (Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez)
• Film Editing (Alfonso Cuaron, Adam Gough)
• Costume Design (Anna Terrazas)
• Visual Effects (Alejandro Vazquez, Sheldon Stopsack, David Griffiths)
• Sound Mixing (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, Jose Antonio Garcia)
• Sound Editing (Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (ANton Garfias)

Shirkers

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: The film has put on a surprisingly strong run among precursors for a Best Documentary nomination, but it has a lot of competition and may not be “important” enough to overcome the other “important” docs in the running.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Documentary (Sandi Tan, Jessica Levin, Maya Rudolph)
• Director (Sandi Tan)
• Original Screenplay (Sandi Tan)
• Cinematography (Iris No)
• Editing (Lucas Celler, Sandi Tan, Kimberley Hassett)
• Sound (Lawrence Everson)

Three Identical Strangers

Oscar Chances: Good: This documentary, like Shirkers, has done well during precursor season, but has done quite a bit better than that film. It has numerous accolades piled up and its unique subject matter seems fitting to the Academy’s predilections.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• No Categories Suggested