A nice batch of prominent movies came in this past week, including a handful of solid Oscar contenders.

BlacKkKlansman

Oscar Chances: Good: The film debuted to solid reviews and has been one of the few films to linger well into the fall, making it a potential Oscar nominee in several categories. Some of its support has weakened, but early precursors have shown the film is still remembered, though minimally in some circles and well in others. The film has several places it can compete, but it’s going to struggle to top two or three nominations.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Shaun Redick, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee)
• Director (Spike Lee)
• Actor (John David Washington)
• Supporting Actor (Adam Driver, Topher Grace, Corey Hawkins, Jasper Paakkonen, Harry Belafonte)
• Supporting Actress (Laura Harrier)
• Adapted Screenplay (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott, Spike Lee)
• Film Editing (Barry Alexander Brown)
• Cinematography (Chayse Irvin)
• Production Design (Curt Beech, Cathy T. Marshall)
• Costume Design (Marci Rodgers)
• Sound Mixing (Drew Kunin, Tom Fleischman)
• Sound Editing (Philip Stockton)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Martha Melendez, LaWanda Pierre-Weston)
• Original Score (Terence Blanchard)

Bohemian Rhapsody

Oscar Chances: Good: The film was thought to be a major player when it was announced, then it released and critics were none to impressed with the film itself. However, Rami Malek has earned tons of praise for his lead performance and he’s shown up in a few places in the precursors so far, so the film is definitely in the race, but only for Malek and nothing else.
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Boy Erased

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: This is another film that seemed poised to enter the Oscar landscape as a strong competitor. And once again, the reviews weren’t great, though they were largely positive. That said, the film has struggled to gain traction, though Nicole Kidman’s supporting performance is the most consistently referenced. The film could also pick up an Adapted Screenplay nomination, but if the film doesn’t do better with the critics groups’ awards, it’s probably going to see most of its chances dry up.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture (Kerry Kohansky-Roberts, Steve Golin, Joel Edgerton)
• Director (Joel Edgerton)
• Adapted Screenplay (Joel Edgerton)
• Actor (Lucas Hedges)
• Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman)
• Supporting Actor (Russell Crowe, Joel Edgerton)
• Film Editing (Jay Rabinowitz)
• Cinematography (Eduard Grau)
• Production Design (Chad Keith, Adam Willis)
• Costume Design (Trish Summerville)
• Sound Mixing (Matthew Nicolay, Roberto Fernandez, Robert Hein)
• Sound Editing (Robert Hein, Glenfield Payne)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Kimberly Jones, Kim Sanantonio)
• Original Score (Danny Bensi, Saunder Jurriaans)
• Original Song (“Revelation” – Jon Thor Birgisson, Troye Sivan, Brett McLaughlin)

The Favourite

Oscar Chances: Strong: As the year comes to a close, the number of Oscar contenders from late in the year seem to be minimal, leaving some of the early contenders open for a surge. This film has been a festival hit, especially for acting, and should do well with Oscar voters nabbing at least one nomination, but probably picking up six or more.
Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos)
• Director (Yorgos Lanthimos)
• Original Screenplay (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)
• Actress (Olivia Colman)
• Supporting Actress (Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz)
• Film Editing (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
• Cinematography (Robbie Ryan)
• Production Design (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)
• Costume Design (Sandy Powell)
• Sound Mixing (Johnnie Burn)
• Sound Editing (Johnnie Burn)
• Makeup and Hairstyling (Nadia Stacey)

The Hate U Give

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: The film received strong reviews, but never felt like a major Oscar contender. While the film has received a few nominations from critics, they mentions aren’t many and we’re unlikely to see them translate to the Oscars unless something like the Golden Globes or Screen Actors guild picks the film up.
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Widows

Oscar Chances: Uncertain: When it was released to excellent reviews, it was considered a major Oscar player in spite of its unlikely subject matter. The Academy doesn’t adore heist films, but the director helmed Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave and that gives him a measure of gravitas. While the film itself is pushing against currents for nominations, Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Actress are probably its only options with Film Editing its next best opportunity.
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