Next up, we have the package from The Orchard, which includes two contenders, two non-contenders, and a likely pariah.

BPM (Beats Per Minute)

Oscar Chances: Excellent: It is not only an almost assured Best Foreign Language Film nominee, it could end up winning the whole thing, making it France’s first win in the category since Indochine in 1992, 25 long years ago.

Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Foreign Language Film

The Dinner

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: Oren Moverman’s The Messenger was a surprise Oscar contender in 2009, picking up nods for Woody Harrelson in Supporting Actor and for Original Screenplay. Ever since, Moverman has focused on these small character studies, but not a single one of them has been a contender. That makes this film’s chances quite small.

Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Picture
• Actor (Steve Coogan)
• Actress (Laura Linney)
• Supporting Actor (Richard Gere)
• Supporting Actress (Rebecca Hall)
• Acting Ensemle (Steve Coogan, Richard Gere, Rebecca Hall, Laura Linney)
• Director (Oren Moverman)
• Adapted Screenplay (Oren Moverman)
• Cinematography (Bobby Bukowski)
• Editing (Alex Hall)

The Hero

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: While Sam Elliott, who is specifically referenced above all other categories on the screen, was originally thought to be a minor player in Best Actor, the film’s lack of continued presence in the Oscar race suggests Elliott is probably not in competition.

Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Actor (Sam Elliott)
• Picture
• Supporting Actor (Nick Offerman)
• Supporting Actress (Laura Prepon)
• Supporting Actress (Krysten Ritter)
• Director (Brett Haley)
• Original Screenplay (Brett Haley, Marc Basch)
• Cinematography (Rob C. Givens)
• Editing (Brett Haley)

I Love You, Daddy

Oscar Chances: None: Thanks to the accusations against Louis C.K., the film’s chances are now nil. Not that they were much to begin with.

Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Comedy
• Director (Louis C.K.)
• Original Screenplay (Louis C.K., Vernon Chatman)
• Score (Robert Miller (Zachary Seman)
• Actor in a Comedy (Louis C.K.)
• Actress in a Comedy (Chloe Grace Moretz)
• Supporting Actress in a Comedy (Pamela Adlon, Edie Falco, Rose Byrne)
• Supporting Actor in a Comedy (John Malkovich, Charlie Day)
• Song (“I Love You Daddy”)

Thelma

Oscar Chances: Unlikely: The film has received decent reviews so far, but there’s a lot of competition in the foreign arena, so it might not have much of a chance.

Campaign-Proposed Categories

• Foreign Language Film