The Academy has announced 20 films on the shortlist for consideration for this year’s Best Visual Effects Oscar. From these 20, the list will be narrowed to 10 films from which the final 5 nominees will be selected.

Based on my own predictions and hopefuls list, the titles missing are A Monster Calls, Assassin’s Creed, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Ghostbusters, Hacksaw Ridge, The Legend of Tarzan, Pete’s Dragon. Of those, the only exclusions that surprise me are A Monster Calls, Ghostbusters, and Pete’s Dragon. The rest were longshots anyway.

As to what made it to this list and not mine? Kubo and the Two Strings and Sully. While Kubo‘s inclusion matches the frequent decision of the preliminary selection committee for recognizing stop-motion animation or computer animation in general. It has never manifested in an Oscar nomination, nor to my recollection, a final shortlist appearance. Sully makes sense only in that it has a lot of supporting effects, which this group likes. I guess it was a more popular option than Billy Lynn or Hacksaw.

Based on these selections (and since I won’t be updating my hopefuls for another week or two), I’d say the most likely to move to the final ten are: Arrival, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, Passengers, Rogue One, and Star Trek: Beyond. That’s only seven titles, but the remaining three slots are murky to me. I could see any one of the others except Kubo making that final ten.

20 CONTENDERS ADVANCE IN VFX OSCAR® RACE

LOS ANGELES, CA – The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced that 20 films are in the running in the Visual Effects category for the 89th Academy Awards®.

The films are listed below in alphabetical order:

• Alice through the Looking Glass
• Arrival
• The BFG
• Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
• Captain America: Civil War
• Deadpool
• Deepwater Horizon
• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Independence Day: Resurgence
• The Jungle Book
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
• Passengers
• Rogue One
• Star Trek Beyond
• Suicide Squad
• Sully
• Warcraft
• X-Men: Apocalypse

The Academy’s Visual Effects Branch Executive Committee determined the preliminary shortlist. Later this month, the committee will select the 10 films that will advance to nominations voting.

Nominations for the 89th Oscars® will be announced on Tuesday, January 24, 2017.

The 89th Oscars will be held on Sunday, February 26, 2017, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood, and will be televised live on the ABC Television Network at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT. The Oscars also will be televised live in more than 225 countries and territories worldwide.