There’s not much time left. Sunday, we will find out just how much we did and did not know about this Oscar season. While I’ve contributed quick thoughts to our Rundown articles, I always like to do more with my final post of the year. This will include how I think the races will finish out, what has the best chances of surprising and what I overall felt about the nominees, non-nominees and other general thoughts. Please note that I have not made it through all of the Oscar nominees, so my thoughts will be based on what I have seen and what I see as problem nominees if that applies.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive.

I will not be sharing my personal thoughts on the quality of the foreign language, documentary, or short film categories since I haven’t seen many of these and apart from Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature, I don’t know that my guesses would have much impact. I have still written a little something on each and these are separated out at the end of this article.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Viola Davis. This is the slimmest of dunks this year. There is no one else who has entered the conversation and after two high profile Oscar failures, Davis will be crowned.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Michelle Williams. I can’t really see these voters opting for anyone else, but the always-a-bridesmaid Michelle Williams could finally win for a powerhouse scene that rivals Viola’s in terms of emotional resonance. This is her fourth nomination and it could pay off, but Davis will be considered more overdue for losing for Doubt and The Help.
My Personal Thoughts: Among the nominees in this category, I’ve seen, Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams are the only two I’d nominate and Williams is by far the best of the year. Viola Davis, even if I had seen her performance, would go into Best Actress. Octavia Spencer is solid in Hidden Figures, but Janelle Monae blows her away. I have also not seen Nicole Kidman. Some quality performances that weren’t included and should have been considered: Felicity Jones, whose performances seldom impress me, was a knock-out in A Monster Calls and had the studio actually pushed the film, it could have been a major player; Greta Gerwig and Elle Fanning in 20th Century Women were both strong; Kate McKinnon gave a star-making turn in Ghostbusters; and Eva Green was surprisingly strong and effective in the otherwise insignificant Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. At this point, my nominees would have been Monae, Harris, McKinnon, Jones, and Gerwig.

Best Original Score

What Will Win: La La Land. Although they are ostensibly recognizing the song score (for which the Academy has a hibernating category to deal with), the voters will give the first major new musical in decades an award for the music they found so charming.
What Could Potentially Upset: Jackie. One of the most respected scores of the year came from Jackie, which played loose with filmic conventions in the way The Social Network did, which could suggest an upset brewing. However, the film didn’t get that many nominations and who can really believe that La La Land would ever lose.
My Personal Thoughts: This is one of those times when I wish the Academy had brought back its Original Song Score category. La La Land doesn’t belong here and even if it did, it’s not the strongest of overall compositions as most of the songs aren’t immediately hummable. Lion is the only score I haven’t heard of the bunch. Of the rest, Passengers was solid work in a film that had a lot of misfire elements, Moonlight sadly did not leave much of an impression on me, and Jackie is absolutely seminal work. As for what wasn’t nominated, A Monster Calls is a wonderful work; Nocturnal Animals is a brilliant score and has been criminally overlooked; and Arrival‘s score was ruled ineligible because the opening and closing orchestral piece was not original to the film and the Academy’s voters aren’t expected to be able to differentiate between original and non-original work. It’s why all-time great scores like The Truman Show were tossed out. If I were nominating, it would be Jackie, A Monster Calls, Nocturnal Animals, Arrival, and Moonlight.

Best Original Song

What Will Win: “City of Stars”. It’s the emotional centerpieces of the romance of the film. While “Audition” is probably the more compelling composition, where else can the Academy recognize a song that both the film’s stars get to sing?
What Could Potentially Upset: “Can’t Stop the Feeling”. While I think “Audition” is the likely beneficiary of “City of Stars” failing to win, there are two songs that could possibly beat it. One is from red hot songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda, but the other is from a pop superstar and if voters won’t to seem hip, they might give it to the infectious “Can’t Stop the Feeling.”
My Personal Thoughts: “Audition” is the best song from La La Land and “City of Stars” works for what it is, but the entire song score wasn’t as impressive to me as it probably should have been. Of these nominees, I haven’t seen the documentary Jim, but I’ve listened to the song and it’s a fairly rote piece. “How Far I’ll Go” is a traditional Disney power ballad, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it was overshadowed by “Shiny” from the same film. “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” is an engaging, infectious song worthy of its nomination. What could have been considered but wasn’t or fell short? “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Warren Beatty’s solid, but frequently unimpressive film of the same name is a wonderful little tune that fits perfectly into that film’s narrative; there were a couple of original songs mixed into the remakes in Sing, “Set It All Free” is the most memorable and “Faith” is a typically solid Stevie Wonder joint; “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street is a fairly strong song; “Letter to the Free” from 13th was extremely good, though it took a bit long to get back into the meat of the track after the solid intro; and in the otherwise mediocre Suicide Squad, “Heathens” is marvelous. Were I to nominate, I’d go with “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” “Set It All Free,” “Drive It Like You Stole It,” “Audition,” and “Heathens,” though I might drop “Drive It Like You Stole It” for “City of Stars” depending on my mood.

Best Picture

What Will Win: La La Land. It’s the film of the year. It extols the virtues and (questionable) pitfalls of Hollywood. It is the first fully original (book and song score) musical to earn an Oscar nomination since Anchors Aweigh in 1945, one of the eras that the film so lovingly tributes. These myriad factors gain support from critics that have, by and large, loved it. It’s hard to believe anything would beat it.
What Could Potentially Upset: Moonlight. Yet, there’s weak grumbling about the film as people see it after the copious praise heaped on it and declare it not as good as they were led to believe. If Oscar voters waited until the hype was at its peak, they might not be as enamored with the film as others, giving their votes elsewhere. However, there is no one film that could benefit from that sector of votes, at least not a large enough voting bloc to sway the decision. If ther is a film, it’s the far more universally beloved Moonlight, a film which tackles two dense, pro-equality subjects that the Academy loves to claim they support. While I doubt it can win, it could be the only film to pose a threat.
My Personal Thoughts: I’m probably in the minority on thinking La La Land was solid, but a pale shade of the great musicals it honors. I might have still put it on my Best Picture slate, but there are others that I’d be more likely to recognize. Of the nominees I’ve seen, Arrival, Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight would be included. Those films that weren’t include: A Monster Calls, Jackie, Kubo and the Two Strings, and Nocturnal Animals would have been added. If I have to hit 10 films, La La Land, then I’d have to seriously think about adding 20th Century Women, or 10 Cloverfield Lane and possibly dropping out one of the others like La La or Manchester.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle. If La La Land is the film of the year, then its director must be celebrated along with it. With a Directors Guild of America award under his belt, Chazelle is the odds-on favorite to win the whole shindig. The one mitigating factor here is his age. He would be the youngest winner in this category in history, which might not go over well with the myriad directors who’ve been working in the industry longer without such recognition.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Barry Jenkins. If age does become a factor in voting, the most likely beneficiary is Barry Jenkins who has an impressive array of critics awards to bolster his claims to quality. That doesn’t mean a lot, though. The Academy has shown time and again that they don’t like critics telling them what to do. Voting against films like Brokeback Mountain, The Social Network, Sideways, and others. Still, the optics of recognizing the first black director in this category ever might persuade some voters to give him the nod.
My Personal Thoughts: I still haven’t forgiven Mel Gibson for Braveheart, so he’d be an easy removal. The other four directors deserve slots, though Kenneth Lonergan is probably the weakest of the remaining four. Other solid efforts this year: J.A. Bayona for A Monster Calls, Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures, Pablo Larrain for Jackie, Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, and Travis Knight for Kubo and the Two Strings. My five and it would be a tough narrowing choice, would be: Jenkins, Villeneuve, Larrain, Bayona and Knight.

Best Visual Effects

What Will Win: The Jungle Book. The sweep of all categories in which it was nominated at the Visual Effects Society awards suggests this film is one of the most respected visual effects designs of the year. A film that has a single actor surrounded by dozens of anthropomorphic jungle animals is like catnip for this group who once recognized the talking animals in Babe and The Golden Compass.
What Could Potentially Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings. Yet, being all effects and no actual filmmaking might sour some voters on The Jungle Book. This is also the Jungle Book‘s only Oscar nomination. Only three other films in Oscar history have won without companion nominations. While that may be the kind of esoteric fact that won’t matter to voters, it’s further interesting to note that the Academy has twice in the last decade gone off the beaten path and ignored frontrunners in favor of smaller, less established efforts like The Golden Compass and Ex Machina. Creativity may help here as the category has had a steady cycle of CGI effect-laden films as victors in recent years. All of this could help Kubo and the Two Strings, which is largely coordinated with practical effects. That it is only the second animated film ever nominated in this category might also work in its favor. Playing with the big boys is definitely a challenge Academy voters recognize. Add to that the likelihood that it loses Animated Feature to Zootopia, I would be surprised if its fans rallied to at least give it one Oscar win.
My Personal Thoughts: I never got around to seeing The Jungle Book, but I don’t know that I missed anything as it’s one of the most grating Disney animated films ever made and one of my least favorites. I also haven’t seen Deepwater Horizon, and I’m also not sure there’s anything wrong with that. What wasn’t nominated, but probably should have been considered: Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Passengers (for all its faults), Warcraft and X-Men: Apocalypse. My final five, at this juncture, would be Arrival, Fantastic Beasts, Kubo and the Two Strings, Doctor Strange, and X-Men: Apocalypse.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

What Will Win: Star Trek: Beyond. For the longest time, the Star Trek franchise remained Oscar-less, in spite of having several viable and deserving nominations over the year. That changed with the 2009 reboot of the franchise, which net the film its first: Best Makeup and Hairstyling. The second film didn’t win anything, but the third film has secured a nomination and it looks very much like it could win. With numerous alien races on display, there’s plenty of material to merit a win. It won the award from the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild, which will help.
What Could Potentially Upset: A Man Called Ove. The Make-Up Artists Guild didn’t nominate the foreign language film for its awards, but the Academy has shown a great predisposition in recent years to nominating the work of their non-American associates. That could explain the film’s inclusion. To date, two of them have won (La Vie en Rose and Frida). That’s at least precedent, but the big question is whether the lack of obvious prosthetic makeup will be recognized by Academy voters. At least Trek is a recognizable quality. The same can be said for Suicide Squad, but the critical consensus (and audience consensus for that matter) are that it’s not very good.
My Personal Thoughts: This category needs a serious revamp. This is the latest year where the selections aren’t nearly as great as they could be if handled like upgraded categories like Visual Effects and Sound Editing. I haven’t seen A Man Called Ove, but from all I’ve read, there isn’t that much makeup work in it. Star Trek: Beyond, though not a film that I was particularly enamored with, had some really fascinating makeup on a handful of aliens. Suicide Squad has a lot of work that isn’t necessarily obvious, but the obvious elements (like Killer Croc), aren’t that good. You could find better non-prosthetic makeup work in films like Fantastic Beasts and Nocturnal Animals with kudos to Deadpool for its limited makeup designs (like A Man Called Ove, there just isn’t enough of it). Picking three, I’d go with Star Trek, Nocturnal Animals, and Fantastic Beasts.

Best Animated Feature

What Will Win: Zootopia. Disney or Pixar have won the vast majority of prizes given out by the Academy. That is a good sign for early year smash Zootopia, which tackles racism in a non-threatening and accessible way. With everything that’s happened in 2016 and 2017 so far, it would be surprising if the kindly political nature of the film didn’t earn the prize. The boatload of precursors, especially televised precursors, also helps.
What Could Potentially Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings. Laika’s best outing yet, Kubo and the Two Strings was a critical darling and, in spite of a relatively low box office total, it managed to win several prizes, including from BAFTA. Yet, it lost the Annie Award and the Golden Globe and the Producers Guild award. Those three trophies are a solid indication of who Oscar voters will pick. Yet, BAFTA could be a sign of a shift in winds for the category and a surprise win by Kubo would delight many. That chance, though, is still relatively limited.
My Personal Thoughts: I loved Zootopia when I saw it earlier this year, but as the year went on, it seemed less impressive and more passive. It’s still a film needed in this day and age, but that political relevance isn’t everything. Kubo and the Two Strings was a marvelous, wonder-filled adventure with gorgeous animation and a soundscape so impressive it should have been nominated all over the place. Moana isn’t even top-tier Disney. I have not had a chance to see My Life As a Zucchini or The Red Turtle Yet. As for the rest of animation this year, Kung Fu Panda 3 was the latest in a solid franchise, and Sing may not have fully lived up to its expectations, but it was not disappointment either. My nominees would be Kubo, Zootopia, Kung Fu Panda 3, Sing, and grudgingly Moana.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What Will Win: Moonlight. With eight Oscar nominations and a raft of precursors, Moonlight is easily one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Winning at the USC Scripter awards (in spite of the loose definition of adaption they and the Academy use) is a great indication of its chances. That it won the more competitive Original Screenplay category at the Writers Guild of America awards suggest it has a lot of strength. This might be one of only two chances voters get to recognize the film, and they are very likely to go for it.
What Could Potentially Upset: Arrival. With Moonlight out of the way the Adapted Screenplay category was free for the WGA to give us an idea what Moonlight‘s main competition was. It was thought to be late playwright August Wilson, but the award went to the screenwriter for Arrival based on a short story. That tells us that Arrival is likely running second to Moonlight, but anything else would be a huge upset.
My Personal Thoughts: Arrival, Hidden Figures, and Moonlight are all choices I probably would have made. Nocturnal Animals, A Monster Calls, and 10 Cloverfield Lane were also terrific screenplays. To knock one of these out of the running would be difficult, but the conventional nature of Hidden Figure makes it the weakest, though I might keep it at the expense of Nocturnal Animals in a tough call.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali. He may not have won the most precursors of Oscar season, but his second place finish with 27, it’s clear that he was incredibly well liked. That didn’t prevent him from losing at the Golden Globes (to non-nominee Aaron Taylor-Johnson) and at BAFTA to Dev Patel.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Jeff Bridges. There is an acting legend in the category and they could just throw him a bone. That man is Jeff Bridges. Although he hasn’t won much in terms of precursors, he’s been an ever-present fixture of Oscar season. It’s also the only real opportunity voters have of recognizing his Best Picture-nominated film Hell or High Water.
My Personal Thoughts: I’ll go on record as not really loving Mahershala Ali. His character disappears for most of the film and I just don’t feel his impact on the character as much as I want to. Lucas Hedges does fine work for a young actor and Michael Shannon is as dependable as ever in Nocturnal Animals. What else is there? Aaron Taylor-Johnson is better than he’s ever been in Nocturnal Animals, Kevin Costner is a solid, level-headed presence in Hidden Figures, John Goodman is astoundingly good in 10 Cloverfield Lane, Colin Farrell’s performance in Fantastic Beasts is a thing of subtle beauty, and Billy Crudup is an excellent addition to 20th Century Women. Were I to nominate, it would be Goodman, Farrell, Crudup, Ali, and Taylor-Johnson.

Best Film Editing

What Will Win: La La Land. Although Academy voters have often gone with more editing, not necessarily better editing, they are just as likely to give the award to a Best Picture nominee or winner. This year, the latter case should be true. La La Land has an American Cinema Editors award and is the belle of the ball, so it should be able to pick off this category as one of its wins.
What Could Potentially Upset: Hacksaw Ridge. Don’t count out something else, though. As I mentioned, they love to reward most editing, especially obvious editing. That’s seldom more apparent than in action films. Mel Gibson’s war drama Hacksaw Ridge meets that criteria nicely. That it took home the BAFTA prize for editing is telling. Arrival won the American Cinema Editors trophy, but it’s not performing as strongly as it might have had it been released a little later in the year.
My Personal Thoughts: Film editing can sometimes be too subtle to notice, but any film that breezes through its runtime without feeling like a burden is an achievement in editing. A film that doesn’t confuse the audience and brings disparate parts together in the end is a feat of editing. Arrival and Moonlight easily fit this description. Fellow Oscar nominee La La Land also does a decent job. Non-nominees with strong work: Nocturnal Animals puts together two stories, weaving them together without losing the viewer and Kubo and the Two Strings is an action-filled, emotional journey that feels perfectly put together. I’d nominate all five of those I mentioned.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Casey Affleck. Casey Affleck has won so many Best Actor prizes that there has hardly been any left for anyone else. Seven other actors have won awards this season, two of those were in comedy/musical categories at the Globes and the Satellites. Affleck has 31 total prizes, so many that I had to redesign my tally tracking page to accommodate that many wins. He is the most honored actor to date. He’s a prior nominee and has been an established figure for several years. His opponents have been using his settled sexual harassment case as a bludgeon trying to knock him down, but BAFTA didn’t fall for it.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Denzel Washington. The problem is that BAFTA didn’t feature the actor most heavily competing with him for the Oscar. Denzel Washington, who currently has two Oscars to his name, picked up the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actor, the first high profile loss of the season for Affleck. That has positioned him as ripe for an upset. Yet, two factors need to be recognized. SAG had never given Washington a prize. Giving it to him now is something of a career accolade for him. Washington also has those two Oscars I mentioned. It took Meryl Streep two decades to nab her third prize in spite of the absolute adoration Oscar voters have for her. Washington would be joining an exclusive club and Academy voters have shown they know their own history. As such, I doubt Washington will win. Of course, there will be a small but dedicated bloc of voters that will pick Washington because of that historic feat as he would be the first black actor to achieve it.
My Personal Thoughts: Casey Affleck turns in a classic performance filled with subtle maneuvers and raging conviction. It runs the gambit effectively and that’s why its cleaned up this season. Of the other Oscar nominees, Ryan Gosling is the only one I’ve seen and he is out of his vocal depth in La La Land. That might fit the themes of the film somewhat well, but it’s distracting. When he’s singing, he’s forgettable, when he’s engaged with Emma Stone romantically, everything clicks. I’ll give credit to Denzel Washington for the few scenes I’ve seen from him in the film, he is definitely solid. What of other films? Jake Gyllenhaal delivers another masterful performance in Nocturnal Animals. This guy needs a second nomination and an Oscar quick. He went from adequate screen presence to acting powerhouse in a seemingly short time. Alden Ehrenreich helps elevate Rules Don’t Apply with his careful delivery and charming demeanor. Without him, or his co-star, the film wouldn’t work in the least bit. Even more can be said about Colin Farrell’s compellingly awkward work in The Lobster, a film that needs to be seen once even if it seems too bizarre to be believed. Nominating for myself, I’d probably go with Affleck, Gyllenhaal, Farrell, Washinton, and Ehrenreich, pending seeing a few more films.

Best Sound Mixing

What Will Win: La La Land. Sound is a category that has had many different types of winners in the past from musicals to blockbusters to everything in between. They have no qualms about recognizing a film like La La Land, and the fact that it IS a musical and it DID win the Cinema Audio Society award for live-action features, there’s little that could get in its way.
What Could Potentially Upset: Hacksaw Ridge. Never underestimate a war film. These movies tend to do better in sound categories than elsewhere. Mel Gibson has had a strong track record in getting his films recognized in these categories. Add to that the fact that it is pushing for a Sound Editing award and you have the possibility that voters could vote the two awards in tandem as they have often done in the past.
My Personal Thoughts: Many voters and non-Oscar aficionados don’t quite understand the difference between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. Had the Sound Editing category been called Sound Effects, it might have been more self explanatory. Mixing takes effects, recorded sound, and music and blends them into a cohesive whole. So, when I look at this category, I consider all of those parts being brought together effectively. The leader of that pack is Oscar nominee Arrival, which skillfully uses all of those elements to create one of the most compelling soundscapes in recent memory. La La Land is adequate for a musical, but it’s also nothing spectacular. The same could be said for Rogue One thanks to the long history the franchise has in that area. What do I think should have been in the running? Kubo and the Two Strings is an obvious choice, as is Doctor Strange. Fantastic Beasts is also an excellent option, but so too are X-Men: Apocalypse and 10 Cloverfield Lane. I’ll also give credit to Nocturnal Animals, which uses silence in provocative ways and which has that terrifying deserted road segment that relies almost entirely on an effective sound mix to work. My nominees: Arrival, Kubo, Nocturnal Animals, Rogue One, and Doctor Strange.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Emma Stone. The most competitive acting category of the year, the contest at one point looked like a three-way race between Emma Stone, Isabelle Huppert, and Natalie Portman. Huppert has taken home 15 awards, the most of the bunch, Portman has 10 and Stone has 7. That’s a close race. What puts this into an almost no-contest situation is Stone’s visible wins at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and BAFTA. While the former two are easy to explain, the latter is the lynchpin in her frontrunner status. If ever a group was more likely to think outside the box, its BAFTA. That they have jumped on the bandwagon tells you all you need to know about her chances. Still, there’s some doubt that the twice-nominated actress can seal the deal.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Isabelle Huppert. Huppert is an acting legend and her victory would be a lifetime achievement honor as much as anything. Combined with the fact that there’s some chatter about La La Land fatigue and the young ingenue could lose out to the experienced thespian. Sadly, Portman’s brilliant work is no longer in the running.
My Personal Thoughts: I would like to have seen Isabelle Huppert before deciding. I’ve always liked her as an actress and I might just include her sight-unseen. Of the nominees I have seen, no one even approaches Natalie Portman and what she does with Jackie Kennedy. This is a performance that should be taught in schools. It’s equivalent to, if not surpassing Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance in Lincoln in terms of portrayals of historical figures. I love Emma Stone as an actress and she’s done fine work in the past. La La Land isn’t her best, but it’s still a strong performance and, unlike others I’ve read and heard from, I think her singing is the strongest in the film. The two biggest disappointments on nomination morning were the failure of Annette Bening and Amy Adams to score nominations. Bening is the best she’s ever been in 20th Century Women. I normally find her quite mechanical in her method, but she lets loose in the film more than she ever has before. Adams is the glue that holds Arrival together and she brings the heavy weight of subtlety to her performance. Other solid efforts this year include Rachel Weisz in The Lobster, Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures, and Adams again in Nocturnal Animals. My choices would have been Portman, Adams (Arrival), Bening, Henson, and Stone, though if Huppert were really really good, I’d probably drop Stone.

Best Original Screenplay

What Will Win: Manchester by the Sea. Before La La Land became a juggernaut, this race belonged to Manchester by the Sea. With plenty of precursor awards behind it and critical acclaim, the film seemed poised to win this award and still should, based on its BAFTA win in the same situation.
What Could Potentially Upset: La La Land. Then again, there’s the distinct possibility that a number of Academy voters will just check off boxes for La La Land every time they see it, even if it isn’t quite the best in its category. Still, the story is fairly commonplace and doesn’t have much insightful to say, so enough voters may line up behind Manchester to give it the win.
My Personal Thoughts: There are two keys to Best Original Screenplay: writing something that’s never been written before, and telling an old story in a new or compelling way. Manchester by the Sea, The Lobster, and 20th Century Women all do that. La La Land‘s script is hardly the best thing about the film. Kubo and the Two Strings deserves to join those four on the list, and for all its faults, Zootopia was fairly good as well. Manchester, Lobster, 20th Century Women, Kubo, and La La Land would be my five.

Best Cinematography

What Will Win: La La Land. Many felt that La La Land was poised to handily win this category, but it lost at the American Society of Cinematographers awards. That doesn’t mean it can’t win. Even the film’s detractors give it credit for its cinematography.
What Could Potentially Upset: Lion. Thanks to its win at the American Society of Cinematographers, Lion has been catapulted into runner-up status. While I could see them going elsewhere, this seems like the most likely outcome at this juncture.
My Personal Thoughts: The Academy sees cinematography mainly as capturing beauty on screen. That’s part of the cinematographers job, but so too is framing and shot composition and many other requirements. The successful blend of all these make for a great photographic work. La La Land deserves to be on this list. It has a vivid color palette and frames its actors and scenes superbly. That it doesn’t cut into close-up during dance sequences is an achievement in itself. Arrival and Moonlight both use very cool color schemes to tell their stories and it works in both cases very effectively even if for entirely different reasons. Others that should be included here include the eye-popping colors, flowing visual style, and crisp shot selections of Nocturnal Animals; and the beautiful compositions and colors of Kubo and the Two Strings. The aforementioned five films would have been my choices.

Best Production Design

What Will Win: La La Land. It pains me to predict this, but the utterly contemporary and utterly serviceable art direction of La La Land was one of the early predictions everyone made. Of course, in a category that often favors period or fantasy offerings, this just doesn’t seem like the kind of winner they choose, which is why it’s one of the closer races currently out there.
What Could Potentially Upset: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Its win at BAFTA gives Fantastic Beasts a boost, but it didn’t win the Art Directors Guild award, losing to Passengers, a film no one saw coming (probably because no one saw it). It’s possible that the sci-fi film topples all comers to win the award, but Fnatastic Beasts is the closest to traditional among these nominees.
My Personal Thoughts: Production Design is a tough discipline and while it might just seem like its about building sets and dressing them, there’s so much more to it from recreation of past time periods and inventing futures or environments that never existed to unifying film elements between scenes and reflecting characters among other things. I’ve seen four of the five films nominated (no Hail, Caesar! for me yet) and all but La La Land fully accomplished great things with what they had. Others worhty of consideration: Kubo and the Two Strings, A Monster Calls, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, The Lobster, Hidden Figures, 20th Century Women, and Warcraft. There are others too that could be considered for this prize. Were I making selections, I’d go with Arrival, Fantastic Beasts, Passengers, Kubo, and Miss Peregrine.

Best Costume Design

What Will Win: Florence Foster Jenkins. It lost the Costume Designers Guild award to Hidden Figures and the BAFTA to Jackie, but Florence Foster Jenkins is the kind of film Academy voters tend to check off simply because of the volume and quality of the designs.
What Could Potentially Upset: Jackie. It won BAFTA, but not at the Costume Designers Guild and while the iconic Jackie Kennedy look and the hoards of women sporting similar fashions might be popular to those who fondly remember the era, it’s not the kind of homogeneity these voters tend to recognize. There could also be a groundswell of support for a sweep by La La Land, which would be so far afield of this category’s typical winners, it’s strange to even consider it.
My Personal Thoughts: A fairly self-explanatory category and while costuming characters would seem like a fairly easy task, trying to tie the costumes to the characters visually and thematically can be a challenge. Fantastic Beasts and Jackie among the nominees do this fairly well. As for the non-nominated, there’s a reason Kubo and the Two Strings became the first animated film in history to score a Costume Designers Guild nomination. Those creations were spectacular. Miss Peregrine also did a fine job, but we’ve come to expect that from Tim Burton even when his films aren’t great. Nocturnal Animals was a better contemporary design than La La Land on the whole. Choosing is difficult, but I’ll go with Fantastic Beasts, Jackie, Kubo, Nocturnal Animals, and Miss Peregrine.

Best Sound Editing

What Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge. Even before it won the Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild’s two most accurate Oscar predictors, many thought it would be the de facto winner here. It’s a Best Picture nominee and a war film, two things voters love to recognize.
What Could Potentially Upset: Arrival. Of course, Hacksaw Ridge is about as commonplace a winner as one could imagine. It takes genuine creativity to make things that are otherworldly. That Arrival has few other opportunities to win, it wouldn’t be surprising if it surprised by picking up this trophy. Of course, there’s that grim specter of a La La Land sweep, which could propel it to a win in this utterly unlikely category.
My Personal Thoughts: Going back to what I said under Sound Mixing, Sound Editing is about creating sound. That comes in two forms: Dialogue/ADR and Sound Effects/Foley. While the Academy typically only recognizes the latter, it’s the achievements that do both well that stand out most. Arrival is an easy inclusion. They had a challenge to create new sounds for the alien creatures and layering that with the right sound in hazmat suits or in a vast cubic chamber is a strong achievement. La La Land is the only other film I’ve seen on this list and I have no idea why it was even in the race to begin with. What’s missing, though, is interesting. Not to sound like a broken record, but Kubo and the Two Strings was a wonderful achievement in many disciplines, Sound Editing inclusive. Rogue One continues a long tradition of innovation. Ghostbusters did some solid work as well. Doctor Strange, X-Men: Apocalypse, and Warcraft also had excellent work. My nominees would be Arrival, Kubo, Rogue One, Doctor Strange, and Warcraft.

And that’s all I have to say about this year’s Oscars. Enjoy this year’s race and don’t forget to keep reading to find out more on my thoughts about the remaining categories.

These are those categories. I haven’t seen enough of these to make decisions on what should win, what should not, or what even should have been nominated. They are all also equally close in terms of potential winners. Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary Feature are the only categories anyone is really talking about the winner being a “done deal,” but nothing at the Oscars is ever guaranteed.

Best Foreign Language Film

What Will Win: Toni Erdmann. This is the category where more surprises happen than anything. That’s why frontrunner Toni Erdmann isn’t a slam dunk selection. The film has earned plenty of praise, but comedy, even dramedy, is a difficult sell to Academy voters who don’t like too much humor in their films. This category is especially prone to such thinking. Still, the degree to which the film has earned support this season puts it into the lead.
What Could Potentially Upset: Land of Mine. Any of the other films is distinctly possible, whether it’s the anti-travel-ban protest vote for The Salesman, the feel-good sentimentality of A Man Called Ove, or the creativity of Tanna. However, I’m giving my alternate vote to post-World War II drama Land of Mine about young German men forced to dig up mines buried in the beaches of Denmark. The premise alone sounds like something these voters would eat up with a spoon.

Best Documentary Feature

What Will Win: O.J.: Made in America. If it wins, it will be the longest film ever to win an Oscar. It’s won nearly every other prize this season and all signs point to it taking the big one.
What Could Potentially Upset: I Am Not Your Negro. Yet, there is plenty of doubt to suggest that it may not be so invulnerable. Made for cable, but released in cinemas first for Oscar eligibility, many voters may purposely vote against it. Others may balk at the total running time or having already lived through it all. What makes me think that something else could win is a mixture of all these reasons. My suggested replacement is I Am Not Your Negro, a timely film that has earned plenty of praise and has won four precursors was nominated for ten more. It’s also been more consistently mentioned the last few weeks than any other documentary. Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised if 13th managed to pull from behind to win or Fire at Sea for that matter. On top of that, Life, Animated has also received plenty of acclaim, so while O.J. still seems like the favorite to win, any of the others could surprise.

Best Documentary Short Subject

What Will Win: The White Helmets. Three films about Muslim immigrants or refugees suggest that this category is ripe for political plucking. The White Helmets was, long before the nominations were announced, the film that sounded most like a winner.
What Could Potentially Upset: Joe’s Violin. That said, if none of them get a majority of votes, Joe’s Violin, which has a very hopeful tone to it, could be the benefactor. Of course, any of these could win as the short film categories are sometimes the hardest to predict.

Best Animated Short Film

What Will Win: Piper. The Pixar short benefits from having more people seeing and voting in this category. It’s received widespread acclaim and the negatives of all the other contenders likely give it the upper hand.
What Could Potentially Upset: Borrowed Time. Some are citing the revolutionizing Pearl as the potential winner or the hyperstylized Pear Cider and Cigarettes, but Borrowed Time has received strong acclaim and seems more in line with the type of traditional animation voters recognize in this category. Again, this is also a short film category, so there’s no telling which direction they’ll end up going ultimately.

Best Live-Action Short Film

What Will Win: La Femme et le TGV. This is a category I know the least about, but the accessible La Femme et le TGV seems like a solid winner. It also passes my “title” test. This is what has helped me correctly predict short film categories in the past and it’s the title that most sticks out to me.
What Could Potentially Upset: Silent Nights. I could also be wrong and any of the other films could win. Silent Nights gets my runner-up vote, but for no satisfactory reason I can cite.

That’s everything. I hope you enjoyed reading and we’ll see you on the other side.