When La La Land pulled off a surprising record-tying 14-nomination haul at the Oscars (it ties with All About Eve and Titanic for most nominations ever), the next question that popped up was whether it could possibly top or tie the current crown holders for most wins: Ben-Hur, Titanic, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, which each have 11 awards (Return of the King is the only one of these films to sweep all of its categories).

For it to pull off that feat, it has to perform incredibly well in at least 11 of its 13 categories (it cannot win 14 as it has two tracks nominated for Best Original Song). To that end, here is the category breakdown as I currently see it.

Safe Bet (6):
Picture, Director, Original Score, Original Song, Film Editing, Sound Mixing

Likely (3):
Actress, Cinematography, Production Design

Potential (1):
Original Screenplay

Tipping Point (3):
Actor, Costume Design, Sound Editing

Right now, I have it poised to win 9 awards from the Safe Bet and Likely categories above, which would put it in a tie for 3rd place among nominees (behind the aforementioned 3 films, plus West Side Story with 10, and alongside The English Patient, Gigi, Gone with the Wind, and The Last Emperor with 9 each).

That’s really impressive company.

That tenth win for Original Screenplay could be possible if voters really don’t like Manchester by the Sea or if they are exceptionally desirous of giving La La Land extra trophies. The problem there is that even if they don’t like Manchester by the Sea on the whole, Kenneth Lonergan is something of a screenwriting legend. That respect means he probably still has a lead in the category, but love for La La Land might just boil over into it.

It’s also possible that one of those three Likely categories is lost, with Actress being the one with the most competition. Musicals don’t typically win Best Actress. Liza Minnelli was the last leading lady to do so in 1972 for Cabaret (I don’t count either Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose or Sissy Spacek in Coal Miner’s Daughter) and was only the third ever after Barbara Streisand (Funny Girl) and Julie Andrews (Mary Poppins). Academy voters aren’t going to know those facts, so they won’t have any qualms about giving it to Emma Stone. Production Design has gone to musicals, but contemporary films rarely earn that prize, making it a tough sell as well.

However, let’s put aside those and say it wins ten awards. Could it peel off any of the Tipping Point categories? That’s where I have the most extreme doubts.

Actor is a lost cause. Gosling would have to top both Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington. That’s such a Herculean feat that a clean sweep would be absolutely necessary for him to pick up this prize.

Costume Design also seems unlikely. The last time a film with contemporary costumes won was 1994 when The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert did so becoming the first film in more than two decades to do so (Travels with My Aunt was the previous entry in 1972). It’s just not the kind of category a film like La La Land competes in. That doesn’t mean it cannot win, it’s just not something most would be or even should be predicting.

Of all of these, Sound Editing is the most likely to flip and it’s not nearly as likely as some might think. While the Sound Mixing category has gone to musicals on more than a few occasions, Sound Editing/Sound Effects has never done so. That is likely because the category is almost exclusively the playground of action films. They don’t have complete dominance through history, but they have a vast majority of wins.

Unless it can pick off one of these three categories, a tie is impossible. If it can’t pick up Original Screenplay, the haul will still be impressive, but won’t tie the most honored musical in history, West Side Story.

As I referenced earlier, it’s also possible it loses one of Actress, Cinematography, or Production Design, which would put it more in line with recent sweeper Slumdog Millionaire. That’s not bad company at all and no one should consider it a failure if it doesn’t run the table.

The biggest question of all is will the film’s biggest fans check off every box the film has, or will they recognize that spreading the wealth. That has been the case for the last several years, and may still be necessary. Crowning a film like La La Land as an all-time Oscar winner is not something many voters will feel that confident about, except for maybe its most die hard fans, of which there are many.