We’re down to the wire. Sunday, we will find out just how much we did and did not know about this Oscar season. While I’ve contributed quick thoughts to our Rundown articles, I always like to get more in depth with my final post of the year. This will include how I think the races will finish out, what has the best chances of surprising and what I overall felt about the nominees, non-nominees and other general thoughts. As a quick aside, the pictures below are not always my predictions and they aren’t always my personal choices. I tried to use a different picture for every single category. The only thing unifying these is that every one of them is Oscar nominated in the category it’s posted next to.

Unlike last year, I’m going to sort the below in the order in which I think the categories are most competitive. I’ll start with the least competitive and work my way to the most.

I will not be sharing my personal thoughts on the quality of the foreign language, documentary or short film categories since I haven’t seen many (if any) of these and apart from Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature, I don’t know that my guesses would have much impact. I have still written a little something on each and these are separated out at the end of this article.

Best Visual Effects

What Will Win: Gravity. Apart from a few isolated years, the visual effects category has been one of the least contentious of recent Oscar memory. That’s not because great films don’t get nominated. It’s because while there are undeniably great achievements, there’s always one that stands so far in front of the crowd that you cannot overlook it. Gravity holds that distinction this year. Had it not been on the roster, this might have been a much less competitive race with the very impressive The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug a likely victor. That is not the case and a prediction against Gravity would be a contrary prediction just to be contrary.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Hobbit. There really isn’t much that could upset the film, but The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is probably the second most accomplished of this group. Even if the entire film’s visual effects budget had been spent on the spectacular barrel ride, it would still have won the award. Yet, the creation of Smaug, the statue of gold and the city of Laketown make the film an easy second-place choice and if the world were destined to end, this might be the film that upends our expectations.
My Personal Thoughts: I’m one of the few people who believe that The Hobbit topping Gravity wouldn’t be the worst decision ever made. I don’t hate Gravity or its spectacular special effects, nor do I think it’s the absolute definitive visual effects experience. I’d be satisfied with either result, but you won’t hear me complain if Gravity loses, other than it will break apart my Oscar Pool predictions.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Before precursor season even began, there was only one film talked about as a serious Best Actress winner this year. Cate Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine has been the dominant performance this Oscar season, all the way back to the film’s release and apart from the Woody Allen factor, I would probably put this above Best Visual Effects as the most locked category at the Oscars.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Judi Dench, Amy Adams. I really don’t think there’s much to the whole Woody Allen controversy (at least in terms of Oscar impact) and I bring it up only because it’s been a part of the conversation this awards season. Blanchett’s performance stands alone, far above the din. Yet, if she were to be toppled, there are two actresses I could see doing it. Non-winner Amy Adams is the only nominee in the bunch not to have an Oscar yet. Everyone else does. She’s also in the age range straight male Oscar voters love to recognize in this category. Judi Dench is on the other end of the spectrum. She’s the grand dame of the Oscars and her performance has an emotional resonance that Adams doesn’t have. Which would take it? I don’t really know. At this point, it wouldn’t really matter as I don’t think I’ll have to make the choice.
My Personal Thoughts: The most frustrating thing about this or any other Oscar season is how poorly independent films are treated. They snag a nomination every once in awhile, but even this year’s top “indie” nominees are at least major studio-like efforts, even if they were produced for much less than something like The Wold of Wall Street. That being said, there is one performance this year that should have been on this list from the beginning: Brie Larson’s quiet, unassuming performance in Short Term 12 is simple, yet devastating. It’s the type of debut performance that might have been nominated if big names weren’t so popular this year. Think Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone. I’d drop Meryl Streep in a heart beat and as much as I love Sandra Bullock in Gravity, if it had meant getting Larson a nomination, I wouldn’t have hesitated to jettison her. Not only should she have been nominated, but she should have been in the conversation as an upset winner over Blanchett.

Best Animated Feature

What Will Win: Frozen. It will be a chilly March if Frozen doesn’t carry home this year’s Oscar, a first for Walt Disney Animation. Disney is the grandfather of all animated films and the studio was the dominant force until the late 1990’s when Pixar moved in. Disney was in the process of collapsing, so when it finally restarted around the time that John Lasseter and Pixar came aboard, it was only a matter of time before the studio that started it all finally picked up the little golden guy. I wish it had been last year for Wreck-It Ralph, but this year will have to suffice even if I consider Frozen third on the list of best Disney films of the last decade.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Wind Rises. The only film with in almost every critic group there was. Then, as Frozen began dominating the box office, the conversation changed and Hayao Miyazaki’s purportedly final film slipped into second place and has been there ever since. It could still pull off a surprise win, but I highly doubt it.
My Personal Thoughts: What a great world it would have been had Frozen come out next year. The Wind Rises, the most adult film in legendary Japanese director Miyazaki’s career would have taken the prize. It even still deserves it. It is an exquisite film that explores the vestiges of youth and how our adult life tends to shunt those memories aside. All animation doesn’t have to be for children and that’s why this film deserves the Oscar.

Best Directing

What Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron. If the preponderance of critics awards didn’t sell you on Cuaron being one of this year’s guarantees, then the Directors Guild of America, the most accurate precursor in existence, should have sold it to you. The chances of another director winning are infinitesimal, but if anyone else wins, then we may know who our Best Picture winner will be.
What Could Potentially Upset: Steve McQueen, David O. Russell. The two other films competing with Gravity for Best Picture are also the only two directors with a conceivable chance of winning Best Director. Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave currently has a slight edge over Gravity while American Hustle is still hanging on just below. Neither of these directors seem like they’ll win, but if they do, the calls of injustice will be loud (especially if non-Hispanic, non-black Russell wins). We’ll also then know what film is most likely to win Best Picture.
My Personal Thoughts: I admire everything that Alfonso Cuaron has done with Gravity. His prior career is even more impressive. An award for Best Director could easily be considered a career achievement accolade for the times when he wasn’t nominated and should have been (like for Children of Men. That being said, I think McQueen’s realistic 12 Years a Slave is a fairly strong achievement on its own and he has had a stellar career before hand, so an award would also feel like plaudits for his past work on movies like Shame. I won’t complain if Cuaron wins, though.

Best Original Song

What Will Win: “Let It Go”. Disney has been trying something new during their Reincarnation Years. From 1989 through their collapse at the end of the 1990’s, they typically submitted every song in their musical animated films for consideration. With “I See the Light” from Tangled, they started something new. They chose one song to champion and pushed hard for it. That paid off for Tangled and it paid off again for Frozen. Had they submitted more, they might have actually gotten more nominations, but then they wouldn’t have the juggernaut that is “Let It Go.” It’s a musical anthem for any group of oppressed persons hiding from being who they really are. While the film posits this as a female empowerment anthem, the gay community has also picked up on its powerful sentiment. This alone should give it enough votes to succeed.
What Could Potentially Upset: “Ordinary Love,” “Happy”. While I doubt anything will beat it, rock legend U2 is nominated for the second time, which could net them some votes. Yet, the ditty I think has the better shot of overturning Disney is “Happy.” Pharrell Williams’ song is an infectious tune that has gotten widespread play since its debut. Pharrell Williams is a white-hot music producer and if the song doesn’t make you feel instantly good, then you may want to pick up some pointers from the Grinch on how to increase the size of your heart.
My Personal Thoughts: There were a number of songs not nominated this year that should have been. “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby, “Atlas” from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and “Please, Mr. Kennedy” from Inside Llewyn Davis. “Please, Mr. Kennedy” was ruled ineligible and instead of giving consideration to popular hit “Young and Beautiful” or charming tune “Atlas,” they gave nominations to the easily forgettable “Ordinary Love,” a lackluster piece from Karen O and, most egregiously, a song from a virtually unseen film that only got its nomination because a former director of the branch brought unrestricted attention to his tiny tune. It was later declared ineligible, but the nomination wasn’t replaced. That’s the unfortunate part of the whole ordeal.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey. We’re now getting into the more competitive races and although Best Actor isn’t a foregone conclusion like Best Actress is, this is a fairly safe bet. Matthew McConaughey has spent a lot of time redefining himself as an actor, shifting into smaller roles in more challenging films. As a result, he has gained a lot of plaudits from critics for his transformation. In addition, the story of how he helped rescue this project from production hell is the kind of inspirational story that Oscar voters eat up.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Bruce Dern, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leonardo DiCaprio. There is still the possibility that the Old Guard will want more evidence of a turnaround (I don’t know how that’s possible considering the half dozen turnaround projects he’s done successfully in the last couple of years) before they give him an Oscar. That benefits two other candidates: Bruce Dern, who is considered acting royalty and has been working the awards circuit heavily and with panache all season; and Leonardo DiCaprio whose grown up with the Oscars from his first mention for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape and nearly every Martin Scorsese project since. Chiwetel Ejiofor has won the second most awards this season, so he could spoil and if he wins, it could be a sign that 12 Years a Slave will take Best Picture.
My Personal Thoughts: I can’t really begrudge McConaughey the recognition. He does a fantastic job in Dallas Buyers Club. However, I think what Ejiofor does in 12 Years a Slave is some of the best acting committed to celluloid. It’s a brilliant, haunting, broken performance filled with hope, charisma and strength. For that alone he deserves the Oscar. Unfortunately, Oscar voters frequently miss recognizing true greatness when given the opportunity. In addition, the tow actors of Out in the Dark, Nicholas Jacob and Michael Aloni, are so committed to their performances that you would follow their love anywhere. Their performances are sublime and while I doubt they ever would have been nominated, it would have been fantastic had they been.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Jared Leto. Matthew McConaughey’s co-star Jared Leto has been getting plenty of attention of his own and is the most dominant presence this awards season after Cate Blanchett and Alfonso Cuaron. That said, he’s gotten a lot of flack in recent days for not getting at the heart of his character the way a real transgender actress could. I’m sure there is more that could be done with such a statement, but he’s an actor and he does a superb job on his own. With the preponderence of precursors in his favor, I doubt he has much to worry about.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Barkhad Abdi, Michael Fassbender. The BAFTA awards may give us pause though. A few years back, Amy Ryan was dominating the precursors for Gone Baby Gone. Everyone was certain she would win. I had a nagging suspicion all season that she would flop by Oscar night. Flop she did and the first indication of who would replace her at the Oscars came from BAFTA: Tilda Swinton. That parallel’s a bit tricky to push this year since Dallas Buyers Club wasn’t eligible for BAFTA, so there was no true competition for Jared Leto. Yet, the winner there, Barkhad Abdi, came as such a surprise that the possibility of him winning at the Oscars doesn’t seem that far-fetched. All season, Michael Fassbender has been the runner-up to Leto and he could still triumph, but only if 12 Years a Slave becomes a surprising juggernaut. The possibility of Abdi winning is much stronger and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win, but for now Leto is the heavy favorite and should sty that way up to Oscar night.
My Personal Thoughts: I like Leto’s performance and I have fond memories of the brilliant work he did in Requiem for a Dream 13 years ago. However, Michael Fassbender is criminally under-appreciated by the Academy. He should have been nominated for Shame last year and won. He’s a better actor than Leto and his performance in 12 Years a Slave is leagues ahead of Leto’s.

Best Cinematography

What Will Win: Gravity. For the last several years, the film that won Best Visual Effects also won Best Cinematography. This was in spite of the American Society of Cinematographers awarding more traditional cinematography for the award (those visual effects films were in 3D and digital). This year, however, the ASC gave the award to a digital effort, Gravity. That endorsement pretty much sealed the deal for Gravity.
What Could Potentially Upset: Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska. Emmanuel Lubezki is a celebrated cinematographer that has lost frequently with the Oscars. While I doubt his name will be ignored Sunday night, two more traditionally lensed films could buck the recent trend. Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska have plenty of supporters. Nebraska‘s black-and-white look might appeal to older voters while Inside Llewyn Davis has some of the most stylish lighting of the year. That being said, I’d be surprised if either overtook Gravity.
My Personal Thoughts: The Hobbit. This was a very gorgeous year for cinematographers. Non-nominees worth consideration were Berberian Sound Studio, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Blancanieves, The Great Gatsby and Metallica: Through the Never would have all been worthy recipients. Gravity is one of the first digital champion-in-waiting that I’ve felt truly embodied the aesthetic of traditional cinematography within the confines of the digital medium. So, I won’t be upset about its win.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

What Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club. When there’s a bet to be made, always look at the Best Picture nominees in the category. That’s especially true with this category where Best Picture nominees so infrequently get recognition that when they do, you should pay attention. This time, the story of how the makeup team worked on a shoestring budget and achieved greatness should easily speak to the voting membership. That the film is also sure to win two acting prizes will help. Had American Hustle been nominated, Dallas wouldn’t have been the frontrunner, but in this competition, it would be bizarre for it to lose.
What Could Potentially Upset: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger. And still lose it might. This is the category that has made some very oddball choices, not just in nominations, but winners. The predisposition towards prosthetic work might actually favor Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, but the single-character design element will be a hindrance. There are plenty of whiskers in The Lone Ranger, so it could follow Braveheart to a win. That Mel Gibson film was also an eventual Best Picture winner, but additionally got flack for the bland blue makeup that was used on all the combatants. The same accusation is leveled at Ranger, but it could still win regardless.
My Personal Thoughts: The year’s best makeup work wasn’t even nominated. American Hustle, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire were all supremely better than the nominees here. I could also get behind any of them winning. Alas, nothing I’m terribly impressed with got nominations so the winner is just another shoulder-shrugging category this year.

Best Original Score

What Will Win: Gravity. This race was supposed to come down to a fight between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Then Steve McQueen’s film failed to get nominated, which put Gravity front-and-center as the go-to winner prediction. However, this is one of the first categories where I have a sneaking suspicioun it could go somewhere else. What gives me the sense that Gravity will still win is the fact that the film is built heavily around silence, so the musical score becomes bolder and more noticeable. It gives the listener a better opportunity to completely understand its movements. Films with more dialogue and sound effects tend to put scores into the background.
What Could Potentially Upset: Philomena, The Book Thief. That being said, there are two longtime composers in this field that could benefit from anti-Gravity sentiment. John Williams is the all-time champ for music category nominations. He’s also edging closer to Walt Disney territory (Disney has the most nominations of any individual in Oscar history). Yet, Williams has notably few Oscars to his name. That could give the composer a late-career win. The Book Thief wasn’t very widely seen, so I’m dubious as to his chances, but people could check off his name without even considering the title. Alexandre Desplat on the other hand is a recognizable name doesn’t have a single Oscar to his name. He missed out on nominations where he should have gotten them, but could get an Oscar for a film that many say he shouldn’t have gotten a mention for. I could see Harvey Weinstein’s heavy hand at play in a victory for Philomena, which has no other chance of going home with an Oscar and for Harvey, a zero Oscar year (which is what this year is looking like) would be hard for him to handle, so an upset win would not be unsurprising.
My Personal Thoughts: I know that Hans Zimmer gets a lot of flack, some of it from me, for being a somewhat pedestrian composer at times. Like Andrew Lloyd Webber, Zimmer has strong moments, then he has carbon-copy moments. However, his score for 12 Years a Slave is quite a bit different from his typical bombast. It’s so minimalist that it didn’t even get an Oscar nomination, but it most definitely should. The only other score this year that I can think of that should have garnered a nomination was that for Joe Hisaishi whose composition for The Wind Rises is beautiful, melodic and a perfect companion to Miyazaki’s style. Their collaboration is the stuff of dreams and he should have gotten something at some point.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o. At the beginning of the season, Lupita Nyong’o was making a pronounced streak through precursor awards, sweeping up a large number of awards for her small, but pivotal role in 12 Years a Slave, but as December wore on, another name began to emerge as a threat to Nyong’o’s victory: Jennifer Lawrence. Lawrence’s turn in American Hustle was so ballsy and brassy that the sheer scene-stealing power of it pushed her into contention. Nyong’o started to fade making this one of the tougher categories to predict. The Golden Globes gave Lawrence power, but when the Screen Actors Guild gave Nyong’o the trophy over Jennifer Lawrence, things started looking up. If a huge body like SAG could ignore Lawrence in favor of a lesser known actress in a powerful performance, then the Academy could too.
Who Could Potentially Upset: Jennifer Lawrence. Then BAFTA happened and Nyong’o lost the Best Supporting Actress award to Lawrence. This immediately shifted the category into toss-up range. Evidence still heavily favors Nyong’o since Lawrence did not win the BAFTA last year for Silver Linings Playbook even though Lawrence won the Oscar. That meant BAFTA voters didn’t have to worry about giving Lawrence two trophies at such a young age. That issue will be foremost on Academy voter minds when picking a winner here. And if they can make Meryl Streep wait several years to get her third Oscar, they can hold out on Lawrence who is certain to be back frequently over the years.
My Personal Thoughts: It’s a bit surprising to think that a courageous, pain-filled, experienced performance like Nyong’o’s isn’t a slam-dunk this year. I’ve heard people claim her role is too small. Tell that to Beatrice Straight and Judi Dench. Some say it’s just screaming (those people are looking for a reason to hate it and this is their lame excuse). The performance itself, though, is riveting. When she’s on the screen, every hurt and hope the character has is shared with the audience. She conveys years of torture and struggle in a very short span and with so little screen time, the fact that she can do all that is a testament to the performance. Length should not be a determination of the greatness of a performance. Don’t get me wrong, I like, if not love, both the performances of Lawrence and June Squibb, but they cannot hold a candle to Nyong’o. Not this year anyway.

Best Sound Editing

What Will Win: Gravity. Sound Editing is so much more than just sound effects as it can included dialogue replacement and other manipulations of sound. That being said, it is most readily associated with sound effects, which eliminates a few of the nominees immediately. Gravity is the film to beat here as the category has traditionally gone hand-in-hand with Sound Mixing and in tandem Best Visual Effects. In recent years, though, that trend has shifted and Sound Editing has been going in new directions.
What Could Potentially Upset: Captain Phillips. That’s why Captain Phillips, which follows a strong Paul Greengrass tradition, could be the spoiler no one was expecting. There are lots of sounds employed in the film and that vast soundscape may be more appealing to voters who expect to notice what they’re voting for. Gravity is much more subtle in its use of sound effects and with long bouts of silence, it’s even more difficult to truly appreciate the sounds. Then again, with those moments of silence, the little blips and beeps become more noticeable, which may help keep the film in the running.
My Personal Thoughts: I’m not the most astute observer when it comes to sound effects. If the soundscape is unusual, I tend to notice it more than I do films that are more traditional. Berberian Sound Studio is, hands down, the absolute best sound editing job this year. There is no competition. A film about a man adding sound effects to a giallo-style horror film has to use sound effectively and undoubtedly it does.

Best Sound Mixing

What Will Win: Gravity. This year, the sound categories are likely to go the same way and that’s to Gravity. The film has been a force to be reckoned with with the tech guilds this year and while there are competitors that could supplant it, especially if voters tire of Gravity‘s dominance, but in the end everything still seems to point towards a Gravity win.
What Could Potentially Upset: Captain Phillips. Just as it’s the spoiler in Best Sound Editing, Captain Phillips is the challenger here and almost for the same reason. For Sound Effects, long breaks of silence can bolster the chances for effects to be noticeable. It’s why the dramatic underscore is also favored. For a film that has a lot of silence, it might be more difficult for voters to appreciate its use. Sometimes the absence of sound is more stirring than the ever-present nature of it; and for a film set in space where “no one can hear you scream,” films that stick to realism may be better served than those who falsify it for the sake of bombast. Gravity may be subtle and Captain Phillips may be abundant, but in the end subtlety may actually win out.
My Personal Thoughts: Inside Llewyn Davis has one of the year’s best sound mixes, though I’m partial to Gravity just because it focused so much on realism. That being said, I wouldn’t be unhappy with the Coens winning this one, but Gravity would be preferred.

Best Film Editing

What Will Win: Captain Phillips. This was originally Gravity‘s to lose. Now it seems to be doing just that. Captain Phillips beat expectations and won the award from the American Cinema Editors, a fairly good barometer of prevailing opinion about editing (they are the guild for editors after all). The issue always comes down to showy versus subtle. The Academy likes to see what it’s voting for and if they can’t see it, they don’t necessarily understand it. That’s why period dramas so frequently win the production design and costume design awards. They are obvious. The same can be said for editing, which has very often gone to the film with the most editing, not necessarily the best.
What Could Potentially Upset: Gravity. There’s still a chance that Gravity pulls this off. The fact that the film moves briskly even if there are a lot of long takes could help voters realize that it is a tense and thrilling film. They may also realize that knowing just when to cut a long take as opposed to cutting it up and stringing it back together is the sign of a great editor. Gravity could still win, but the edge will always go to the more showy piece.
My Personal Thoughts: For the reasons I mentioned above, Gravity is definitely one of the best edited films of the year. 12 Years a Slave is another. Both employ long, sustained shots to tell the story, but both know precisely when to move on. 12 Years a Slave has one particularly long, brutal take when Solomon Northup is hanging for his insubordination. The scene gets so very uncomfortable simply because we cannot look away. Forcing the audience to witness this horrific treatment of another human being adds to the depravity of the situation. There are many similar scenes in the film, making its editing a brave and audacious minimalist cut. The Hobbit is also one of the better edited films, but for different reasons. It may have a lot of shots cut together, but none of them are so short that you don’t know exactly what’s going on. That’s the kind of action film editing we need more of.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What Will Win: 12 Years a Slave. As the season progressed and 12 Years a Slave began slipping, the adapted screenplay category also slipped, making the film more vulnerable than we would have expected at the beginning of the season. It lost WGA, but it wasn’t eligible there, and then won the USC Scripter prize. It then lost BAFTA. All of these events make it a weaker competitor. If anyone saw the wonderful speech John Ridley gave at the USC Scripter ceremony, the more sympathetic voters in the Academy might give him the prize just to hear another beautiful speech at the Oscars.
What Could Potentially Upset: Captain Phillips, Philomena. Captain Phillips won WGA and Philomena took BAFTA. Billy Ray is a well respected screenwriter, which could give Captain Phillips an edge in this category. Philomena‘s win at BAFTA is a bit more anomalous as the film was very British written by Brits. They don’t always go for the British film, but there are enough voters who do lean that way that even a handful of extra support can swing the vote. This is also Harvey Weinstein’s best shot at a pickup. Along with Original Score, this could be a chance for Harvey to put his stamp on the year.
My Personal Thoughts: There are a lot of great adaptations this year. 12 Years a Slave is one of them. Short Term 12 is another. Destin Cretton’s debut feature film is a fascinating, revealing look into short term care facilities for adolescents and effectively explores the dynamics within them. It’s the kind of insightful film that deserves more recognition that it has obviously gotten. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire is also a terrific adaptation, sticking faithfully to the book but filled with its own voice.

Best Production Design

What Will Win: The Great Gatsby. There’s something to be said for the Academy’s penchant for fancy costumes and period mansions. Typically, if one gets nominated, especially an incredibly showy one, it tends to win. That’s what gives rise to the notion that the pure opulence of The Great Gatsby will mean its victory here. That is a very strong possibility and I would not be surprised. After all, a film with such sumptuous detail coming at you in three dimensions adds to the visual splendor of the film.
What Could Potentially Upset: Gravity, 12 Years a Slave. There’s a nagging bit that suggests perhaps it’s not so cut-and-dried. Gravity is an inventive and creative film that calls to memory films like Avatar. That film, however, is an outlier in recent Oscar history. Still, if Gravity ends up sweeping, it might just pull this award along with it. That being said, last year’s victory for the more muted Lincoln over the splendor of films like Anna Karenina and Les Misérables suggests that this category might have some changing expectations. Even the 2008 victory of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button lends credence to the idea that period films that aren’t Edwardian dramas may be a thing of the past. Gatsby may not be Edwardian, but it’s a vestige of that period of visual ostentatiousness that often dominated this category. That gives 12 Years a Slave, a surprising strength in making a play for the category. This wasn’t a category in which I particularly felt it was assured a nomination, so that mention alone suggests its better liked than we might expect. If 12 Years a Slave makes a stronger play for Best Picture than previously expected, it could be carried along to a victory here.
My Personal Thoughts: There are a lot of films this year that I think merited consideration including The Hunger Games and The Hobbit. These nominees, are relatively above board, though so I have few qualms about any one winning over the other. It would also be one of those cases where I wouldn’t be upset for The Great Gatsby to win.

Best Costume Design

What Will Win: 12 Years a Slave. Until the Costume Designers Guild gave 12 Year a Slave their period award, I had thought this would be a gimme for The Great Gatsby and maybe it still will be, but The Artist and The Aviator give one hope that period dramas aren’t going to forever be the beneficiaries here (Gatsby is a lot like The Aviator in terms of period accuracy). That being said, 12 Years a Slave is often cited for its dreary costumes on slaves, but looking at the early scenes, the later scenes and the costumes for Alfre Woodard and Sarah Paulson and you have all the period finery that would normally pick up this award and if people notice the distinction between the distinctive rags slaves were forced to wear and the opulence of their owners and it might not be such a far-fetched notion that the film win this award, especially if it is truly a Best Picture frontrunner.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, American Hustle. That being said, The Great Gatsby still has a strong chance of winning, as does The Invisible Woman, which is more similar to five of the last seven winners than any of these. The only issue is whether enough people saw The Invisible Woman to give it the win. Just ask The Duchess which had all the same troubles. Then there’s American Hustle. It’s the most recent period on this list, but the outlandish and period-authentic outfits employed in the film are one of its strongest elements and for it to win Best Picture, it needs to pick up more below-the-line categories. This is easily one of the tightest races of the year with four films in a very close competition for the win. Even The Grandmaster could breakthrough the logjam and prevail with a bare plurality of votes.
My Personal Thoughts: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire not only should have been nominated, it should have won. There were no more unique or interesting costumes all year and they worked perfectly into the themes of the film. Of these selections, I don’t think I’d have an issue with any of the winners.

Best Original Screenplay

What Will Win: Her. I almost ranked this as the third most contentious category of the year. Best Costume Design has a true toss-up feel with five films all not impossible winners. This category seems to have only two and I’ve been back-and-forth on this selection for the last several weeks. That alone gives me enough pause to recognize it as the second-most competitive of the year. What I think gives Her the edge is that it is a true original. Nothing has come before it. American Hustle for all its fun, still feels a bit too familiar. On top of that, American Hustle is in many circles considered weakest in its screenplay. There are some who don’t feel that way, which makes this an incredibly tight race. In the end, I could see a scenario where either film wins and there’s really only one reason I think that.
What Could Potentially Upset: American Hustle, Nebraska. It’s because American Hustle is one of three films in a strong race to win Best Picture. It has ten Oscar nominations and few possibilities for a win. That alone may give its fans a reason to throw their weight behind the screenplay. It would also give them an opportunity to recognize David O. Russell since they won’t likely get the chance elsewhere. It’s possible this film wins and I’m already trying to decide which of the two will take it in the end. If I could predict a tie and not be made a laughing stock, I would do that.
My Personal Thoughts: There aren’t a lot of original screepnlays this year that I would unquestionably support for an Oscar. I haven’t seen Her yet and I think American Hustle is very weak in its script. Of the nominees, I’d probably lean towards giving the Oscar to Nebraska. Of the non-nominees, the film I was most affected by was Out in the Dark, but it wasn’t even in the realm of consideration.

Best Picture

What Will Win: Gravity. The end of the night will be the most contentious in recent memory. It’s been 7 years since there was another real nail biter. In 2006, Babel, The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine had divvied up the precursors with The Departed seemingly the weakest. There were predictions of many kind, but it all came down to who won Best Director and that was Martin Scorsese. It seems odd then that I am once again predicting a split, especially considering how rare such an occurrence is. That uncertainty is one of the reasons why this is the most competitive category of the night. BAFTA may have clarified the possibility that 12 Years a Slave could win while the majority of awards went to Gravity, but they had a separate category where they could give it a picture prize, freeing them up to select 12 Years for the overall award. Whether there was genuine enthusiasm or not is uncertain. The tie at the Producers Guild of America between Gravity and 12 Year a Slave further muddied the waters. Right now, I’m leaning towards Gravity winning and I can’t help but think I should predict it to win and hope for a 12 Years victory. So, for now, that’s what I’m going to do. NOTE: Those who read my thoughts earlier today in the Rundown series will notice the difference between my predictions. That post was due two days ago, so I locked that in before I waffled again. That’s how weird this competition is.
What Could Potentially Upset: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle. When things are this tight, you hedge your bets. Sometimes, you have to vote against your favorite or risk being disappointed when something else wins. This is one of those years. With the new weighted balloting system, a film that people generally like has more opportunity than a film that is modestly polarizing. Gravity has a lot of supporters and with the techs going so heavily to it, I can’t imagine voters won’t decide that it should get the top prize too, especially if they are voting Alfonso Cuaron to the top. It also gives a crowd-pleaser an opportunity to sneak in. Whether American Hustle‘s surge after the nominations as a possible Best Picture victor is wishful thinking on the parts of its fans or if there’s genuine love for the film won’t be assessable until after the Oscars. Until then, I have to think that it is running third…unless the balloting gives it a lot of second place votes when the two top contenders are too evenly split to avoid a run-off and thus a come-from-third finish.
My Personal Thoughts: I am 100% in the give 12 Years a Slave the Oscar camp. I’m not one of many, but we are a dedicated few. Whether you have problems with the film or not, every nominee this year has problem. This is a story that needed to be told and needed to be remembered. Gravity will be remembered easily for decades to come, but 12 Years a Slave would be given a longer lifespan in memory were it to win the prize. That’s not why I think it should win. It should win because it deserves it. There were a lot of terrific films this year and, of the nominees, it’s easily the best. I wish that Short Term 12 had pulled a Winter’s Bone and snagged a surprise nomination, but that was not to be. It’s easily a better film than half the titles on this list. Out in the Dark was never likely to be nominated, but I would have championed its inclusion.

Below are the remaining categories for the Oscars. I haven’t seen all or enough of these to make decisions on what should win, what should not or what even should have been nominated. They are all also equally close in terms of potential winners. Only Best Animated Short Film seems like it could be a blow-out. The rest are incredibly competitive.

Best Foreign Language Film

What Will Win: The Great Beauty. Of the five categories I did not cover above, this is the one I have the most knowledge of and the one which seems to be another down-to-the-wire prediction. The Academy loves accessible films and that’s largely because a small subset of the membership voted. Ones who were largely retired and had time to meet the must-see-all requirement of the category. Now that the entire membership has received screeners, we might not know who the winner will be until the envelope opens. We may also not be able to make any long-range forecasts for a few years based on one selection. The Great Beauty is a Fellini-esque film that may pique the interest of voters who find him a master of the art form. That may be enough to get this film the award.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Hunt. However, if voters really are declining to vote if they haven’t seen all the nominees (it’s now entirely on the honor system), then it’s possible the same core of voters could favor something a little less bold for the win. The Hunt and The Broken Circle Breakdown are both stories about humanity, with emotional cores that may be more appealing to the traditional voter in this category. The Hunt would seem the more likely of the two to win. Omar may just be too antisemitic (there are still members who believe Palestine never should have been given an official country berth at all) and The Missing Picture is a bizarre little affair that might be fascinating, but isn’t something voters are likely to line up behind. This is one of the night’s most competitive categories and were I to include it above, I’d stuff it somewhere around the bottom of the list, possibly even below Best Picture.

Best Documentary Faeture

What Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom. Another heavily competitive category where I’m giving the edge to the more engaging, entertaining and accessible film. 20 Feet from Stardom is a crowd-pleaser. It may not be a political documentary, but with three of them as runners-up, I think the voters who cast a ballot may go the less aggressive route.
What Could Potentially Upset: The Act of Killing, Dirty Wars, The Square. The Act of Killing has won most of the precursors, but it’s unusual style may turn off some voters, especially those who would see it less as a documentary and more as a series of artistic re-enactments. Dirty Wars is more in line with the types of political efforts that have been winning this category in recent years, so it’s definitely a favorite. The Square is also more traditional and documents a very recent, very real event in Egypt. Dirty Wars is more Ameri-centric, which could give it the edge if the Academy voters go for politics.

Best Documentary Short Subject

What Will Win: The Lady in Number 6. The subject of this documentary, the oldest living Holocaust survivor, died shortly before voting ended. I might say it may have given it a few more votes, but I suspect it was a likely winner long before that. The Academy’s retired voters have always favored Holocaust documentaries over regular documentaries and that could give the film the edge.
What Could Potentially Upset: Any of the others. I say any of the others because I know so little about them and haven’t seen them that I would hate to highlight one at random. That being said, Facing Fear may have a leg-up over the competition because of its subject, a timely exploration of gay rights and the repercussions of hate. That might help it win, but I couldn’t really say any of these are certainties.

Best Animated Short Film

What Will Win: Get a Horse!. Now that everyone gets to vote, I would be surprised if Disney didn’t pull off a win for its blend of old animation and new, a tribute to legendary animator Walt Disney.
What Could Potentially Upset: Any of the others. Of course, any one of the others could also triumph if enough people like one particular short over the others. It will take a groundswell of support against Get a Horse! to take it down.

Best Live-Action Short Film

What Will Win: Helium. All of the films in this list have gotten a decent amount of chatter this season, but there are a couple that have touched people emotionally. Helium is one of them, which is why I give it a slight edge.
What Could Potentially Upset: Any of the others. With this category, I never know what to think. There are no really unusual titles (like Mona Lisa Descending a Staircase) to glom onto, so I’d just put the names in a hat and pull at random to pick a second runner-up (or even a winner for that matter).