Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

January 6, 2023

M3GAN

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Although they are hocking this as being made by the Annabelle creators, this does not appear to have any supernatural activity elements to it, rather a crazed AI. That alone might make it feel unique enough to draw a decent audience.”
Box Office Results: $95 M
Thoughts: [Success] Performing well above similar films, M3GAN proved to be the sleeper hit of the early half of the year. No other film did this well. Sure, it was expected to do well considering its pedigree, but this exceeded expectations.

January 13, 2023

The Devil Conspiracy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This sounds like a cheap Christian movie that doesn’t understand and doesn’t care how to appeal to a broader audience.”
Box Office Results: $0.765 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A colossal flop hoping to engage with religious horror fans, which didn’t ultimately appeal to anyone.

House Party

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original House Party made $26 million in 1990. Today, it would have made $57 million. While a change in the demographic of movie goers might give the film more prominence, it still isn’t likely to stun.”
Box Office Results: $9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] An ill-advised rework of a film that played on Kid N Play’s then-popularity is not shockingly a dismal failure.

Plane

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Gerard Butler made one hit movie series and now he’s the go to for every action film requiring a middle aged actor. He’s like Liam Neeson, but a bit younger and still unable to sell a movie.”
Box Office Results: $32.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Performing a little better than most of the films that released in January, these numbers are still poor.

January 20, 2023

Missing

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Searching came out four years ago and only made $26 million at the box office. This film looks similar enough that it may face the same hurdles at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $32.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] There was a film with a similar theme to this that didn’t quite make the case for a follow up or even a retread, so it became the second biggest January 2023 performer..barely.