Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

February 3, 2023

80 for Brady

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This sports comedy with a quartet of fiesty older women might have some older viewers interested, but for the most part the trailer doesn’t present anything that would make it a huge success among younger viewers.”
Box Office Results: $39.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] There was a time when these names could have drawn a big crowd, but the demographic between these actors’ fans and football fans doesn’t overlap enough.

Knock at the Cabin

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. M. Night Shyamalan’s renaissance was short lived. After the success of his Unbreakable sequels, Old was a pandemic-era box office dud. Can Knock at the Cabin exceed expectations? Maybe.”
Box Office Results: $35.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] M. Night Shyamalan’s return as a box office draw was shortlived.

February 10, 2023

Consecration

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Yet another religious-themed horror film isn’t likely to excite audience that have grown weary of them.”
Box Office Results: $0.538 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The film shifted from wide release to limited, which explains the tally, but it’s still bad even for a limited release.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The first film was a surprise hit, but its sequel wasn’t as popular. Diminishing returns is likely, so don’t expect much with this one except for there being nothing else to watch at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $26 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This franchise never had a lot of potential and this confirms it.

February 17, 2023

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. This series has always been a visual effects marvel, but for Marvel, it’s not been a visual effects hit at the Oscars. And this isn’t likely to change that.”
Oscar Results: Still weak. The poor reviews and the inexplosive box office performance suggest this one won’t make it to year’s end.
Box Office Prospects: $240 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first Ant-Man film was a solid hit, the sequel outperformed its predecessor by more than $35 million. While the third film increasing by a similar amount is unlikely, that won’t stop it from trying.”
Box Office Results: $214.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A solid outing for Marvel, but not one worthy of exultation.

Of an Age (Expanding)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $0.1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film has gotten almost no attention from critics and is expanding wide? This seems like a poor decision, which makes one wonder why it’s trying.”
Box Office Results: $0.556 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Performing slightly better than expected, these results are still pretty minor.

February 24, 2023

Cocaine Bear

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This will either be a huge success or a huge flop, I don’t think there can be an in between. It’s such a crazy trailer that it might just pull off the success part.”
Box Office Results: $64.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A surprise hit that has since spawned a lot of cheesy imitators.

Jesus Revolution

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s no indication that a film like this will be a mainstream hit. It might have some supporters on a niche basis, but I imagine this will under perform all metrics.”
Box Office Results: $52.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Considering the film’s premise, it wasn’t certain to be much of a box office player, but it outperformed expectations.