As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Tripp was unable to participate in this first round, but assures us that he will be joining future predictions.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: The first predictions are always the hardest and I find myself concerned that I had so few contenders listed this year, but we still have a few months for things to solidify.
Peter J. Patrick: At this point any predictions we make are pure speculation. Perhaps the Cannes Film Festival happening now will make things a little clearer. In the meantime, these are those in the top six categories that look best to me on paper.
Thomas LaTourette: At this point it is mostly guesswork. Many of these films, and others that did not make the list, sound good on paper, but we have no idea if they will actually prove to be any good. Only Air has opened. em>Barbie remains a question mark. It looks intriguing but I have no idea what it will eventually be about. It might be wonderful or just not work. Will Bradley Cooper strike gold with his second film as director? It will be interesting to see what lies ahead.

Best Picture

• Air WL O PP O TL O
• Asteroid City TL O
• Barbie WL O TL O
• Blitz PP O
• The Color Purple WL O PP O TL O
• Dune: Part 2 WL O PP O TL O
• The Holdovers WL O PP O
• Killers of the Flower Moon WL O PP O TL O
• Maestro WL O PP O TL O
• Napoleon WL O
• Oppenheimer WL O PP O TL O
• Past Lives PP O TL O
• Saltburn PP O TL O
• A Thousand and One WL O

Best Director

• Barbie – Greta Gerwig WL O
• Blitz – Steve McQueen PP O
• The Color Purple – Blitz Bazawule TL TL O
• The Holdovers – Alexander Payne PP O
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese WL O PP O TL TL O
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper WL O TL TL O
• Napoleon – Ridley Scott WL O
• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan WL O PP O TL TL O
• Past Lives – Celine Song PP O
• Saltburn – Emerald Fennell TL TL O

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro WL O PP O TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon WL O PP O TL TL O
• Colman Domingo – Rustin WL O TL TL O
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers WL O PP O
• Barry Keoghan – Saltburn PP O
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer WL O PP O TL TL O
• Jonathan Myers – Magazine Dreams TL TL O

Best Actress

• Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple PP O TL O
• Annette Bening – Nyad WL O PP O TL TL O
• Penélope Cruz – L’Immensitá WL O
• Greta Lee – Past Lives PP O TL TL O
• Helen Mirren – Golda WL O
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro WL O
• Margot Robbie – Barbie TL TL O
• Saoirse Ronan – Blitz PP O
• Emma Stone – Poor Things TL TL O
• Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One WL O
• Kate Winslet – Lee PP O

Best Supporting Actor

• Matt Damon – Oppenheimer WL O
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon WL O PP O TL TL O
• Colman Domingo – The Color Purple WL O PP O TL TL O
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie TL TL O
• Brian Tyree Henry – Flint Strong PP O
• Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson WL O TL TL O
• John Magaro – Past Lives PP O
• Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon PP O TL TL O
• Dar Salim – Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant WL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer WL O
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple PP O TL TL O
• Viola Davis – Air WL O TL TL O
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon PP O TL TL O
• Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple WL O PP O TL TL O
• Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon WL O
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro PP O
• Carey Mulligan – Saltburn WL O
• Rosamund Pike – Saltburn PP O TL TL O