Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

January 7, 2022

The 355

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This film has been held back longer than it should have and its concept isn’t likely to liven up the January box office.”
Box Office Results: $14.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] During the winter months, when COVID-19 infections were surging, it was rare for a movie to do well, especially one without a built-in audience like this one.

A Hero (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s one of the handful of foreign language films that could compete for a nomination, though a win is unlikely.”
Oscar Results: Now none. It failed to score a single Oscar nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Independent cinema has been hurt severely by the pandemic and I don’t see this film fixing that.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: Released direct to Amazon Prime.

January 14, 2022

Scream

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The franchise petered out after three films and it’s been far too many years to be generally competitive, but stranger things have happened.”
Box Office Results: $81.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] In a pandemic period, this kind of result is pretty good when in a normal year, it might have risen much higher.

January 21, 2022

The King’s Daughter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The film’s prospects weren’t high to begin with, but releasing in the doldrums of January isn’t the best move.”
Box Office Results: $1.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This is the kind of movie that Disney used to make a lot of, but doesn’t really see any benefit in. This box office failure demonstrates why.

Redeeming Love

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film never had a lot of box office prospects and releasing outside the Valentine’s Day window seems like a misstep even if the plot itself weren’t a warning sign.”
Box Office Results: $9.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] To absolutely no one’s surprise, this film did poorly at the box office. That it did better than Pierce Brosnan’s film has to be especially galling.

January 28, 2022

Morbius

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. On the one hand, Spider-Man‘s box office was excellent. On the other, Sony has struggled to get anything else to light up the box office.”
Box Office Results: $73.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Released in March instead. When so many other superhero films are doing boffo box office, it shows just how bad the movie was that it could perform this dismally.