Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

February 4, 2022

Jackass Forever

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Whether or not this franchise can withstand the pandemic box office decline, the series has done quite well with audiences who apparently like mindnumbing entertainment.”
Box Office Results: $57.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] By this point, it could no longer be said that the pandemic was a depression on the box office. Spider-Man had already proven that where there’s a will, there’s a way. This film did reasonably well, not perhaps as well as its predecessor, but well enough to pay plenty of dividends for the participants.

Moonfall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. The film has a lot of visual effects, but few Oscar contenders release this time of year, so I wouldn’t expect much out of it.”
Oscar Results: Now none. With its box office flop, combined with its poor reviews and early release, this film’s Oscar prospects are pretty much nil at this point.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Roland Emmerich is really hit-or-miss with his films and it’s impossible to know what will be successful and what won’t. In a pandemic, I doubt he can be terribly successful.”
Box Office Results: $19.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s been a long time since Roland Emmerich has made a blockbuster. Have we outgrown him or have we realized we don’t need the ludicrous in order to have a good time. The same could be said about Michael Bay’s most recent output. Whatever the reason, this was a dismal performance.

The Worst Person in the World (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s on the shortlist for 2021’s Oscars, so it’s most certainly a contender.”
Oscar Results: Success. It was released for an Oscar-qualifying run last year and managed to score two nominations, which is plenty impressive. It didn’t win any, though.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The good word of mouth from critics might bolster the film’s chances of making money, but it’s just not the kind of film the box office responds to right now.”
Box Office Results: $3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While the regular box office has been building steam, the indie box office had been struggling, but this performance suggests a rebirth is near for the right kind of picture.

February 11, 2022

Blacklight

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Everyone keeps hoping that Liam Neeson starring in their film will mean it’s a box office hit when very few of his action films have been major box office successes. This one could cross that threshold, but it’s uncertain.”
Box Office Results: $9.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Like many of his past attempts, this was a box office dud. Hopefully, he’ll return to making Oscar-calibre films one day rather than cashing paychecks.

Death on the Nile

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. The first of Kenneth Branagh’s Agatha Christie adaptations didn’t make an Oscar splash, so I wouldn’t expect much this time out either.”
Oscar Results: Still unlikely. Nothing in the film’s box office performance or critical reception suggests that the film will hold out until the nominations early next year.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The notion of an all-star murder mystery was successful in 2017, but the pandemic doesn’t make such event pictures as likely to succeed. Add to that the fact that the film’s been postponed several times, interest may just not be high enough.”
Box Office Results: $45.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Supposing the box office was still suffering from panemic reticence. If that were the case, then this result isn’t bad, especially since the studio tried to minimize the advertising surrounding Armie Hammer’s near-starring role in the film.

Marry Me

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There was a time when Jennifer Lopez as a romantic draw at the box office was a bit of a thing. While she still occasionally has a good box office tally, more often than not, her films are a disappointment. This one might fall more in the mediocre middle, though, thanks to the pandemic.”
Box Office Results: $22.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Jennifer Lopez isn’t a box office draw and this pretty much proves it. The attempt was rather cheesy to begin with, but even this is shameful.

February 18, 2022

Dog

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Another film that could have been a crowd pleaser before the pandemic might well end up underperforming. That said, the film checks a lot of boxes for the kind of people who would ignore a pandemic going on.”
Box Office Results: $61.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Wholesome entertainment is difficult to find and anytime there’s a “cute” dog in the film, people tend to flock to see it. This result is exactly as expected for middle-of-the-road entertainment.

Uncharted

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Too early a release to be thought of as an Oscar contender for Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: Now unlikely. The film was a box office success, but not a hit with critics. Heavy effects films that release this early in the year tend to be forgotten come Oscar time even if they were successful.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Are the latest Spider-Man or is it the character that’s drawing audiences. We’ll soon get to test that theory with Tom Holland in the lead role of yet another big project. The last one released during the pandemic and did poorly. This one at least has a highly popular videogame franchise behind it, but its prospects are still unknown.”
Box Office Results: $147.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] The biggest hit of the month shows that Tom Holland may well be a top box office draw. Tom Cruise can still open bigger and better, but Holland is no slouch all things considered.

February 25, 2022

Cyrano

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While Peter Dinklage has gotten career-high accolades, his candidacy seems to have stalled out. With that, most of the film’s momentum drops as well.”
Oscar Results: Weak. Although it was one of the best films of 2022, it was almost entirely ignored by the Academy. It got a single nomination for Costume Design even though it deserved at least a half dozen more.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. As much as we would like musicals are just not performing well at the box office. Sure, Peter Dinklage is popular, but he’s not a box office draw and this kind of film is unlikely to change that calculus.”
Box Office Results: $3.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] When you can’t find an audience, this is the result. What should have been advertised to the hilt and an unqualified success, was a disaster for the studio who didn’t obviously know how to market it.