Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

April 1, 2022

The Contractor

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s no evidence to support this type of film or this actor (Chris Pine) is enough of a box office draw to overcome the familiarity and low key nature of the film itself.”
Box Office Results: $1.03 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The film was positioned to take advantage of the strange perception that Chris Pine is a box office draw. He’s never been and this pretty much proves it.

Morbius

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $185 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Sony’s attempt to spread its Marvel influence beyond its Spider-Man films has been fairly successful. That may be put to the ultimate test with this film.”
Box Office Results: $73.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A forgettable character with a self-serving actor in the lead make for a tough sell. Sony really wants to make the anti-hero a thing, but while they succeeded with Venom, Morbius didn’t.

April 8, 2022

Ambulance

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Heist films can be popular, especially ones with casts like this, but they haven’t been as successful in the last several years as they used to be.”
Box Office Results: $22.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Michael Bay just can’t make a movie that people want to see anymore. He got so entrenched in the Transformers universe that everyone forgot he used to work outside of it. Either that or his type of film just doesn’t resonate with modern audiences like it used to. Probably a bit of both.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $135 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a surprise success and this sequel will probably capitalize on it to keep on an even level with its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $190.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] One of the few unqualified successes of the pandemic era. It was a sign that audiences were willing to risk life and limb for franchise continuances and not original products.

April 15, 2022

Father Stu

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Boxing dramas are hit or miss at the box office in recent years, but this looks more like a redemptive storyline. It’s hard to parse and I’m sure audiences aren’t likely to just turn up.”
Box Office Results: $20.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Another one of those actors that studios are trying to turn into a box office star, but are relying on someone who isn’t capable of such undevoted attention.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first film scored two nominations as well as the franchise’s first Oscar. The second film didn’t even rate a single nomination. The law of diminishing returns suggests they shouldn’t hold out hope for this film, but the chances are still decent, depending on the competition.”
Oscar Results: Still uncertain. The film is gorgeous, but whether that’s enough for Oscar voters to overcome the weakness of the material remains to be seen.
Box Office Prospects: $160 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. After the exceptional debut of the first film, the second managed to take a huge decrease. Now with more manageable expectations, this third film will test whether the Harry Potter universe can succeed without the Harry Potter character.”
Box Office Results: $95.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Disproving the notion that fans will make their way to the theater for a franchise film, this film’s struggles may be less about the success of a franchise entry and more an indictment on its creator.

April 22, 2022

The Bad Guys

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Now good. With very few animated films making a mark lately and the generally decent reviews the film received, it might be able to overcome a mediocre slate and score an Animated Feature nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $105 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. During the pandemic, animated films performed decently well, but have yet to fully rebound. This film could boost that possibility.”
Box Office Results: $96.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t quite make it to $100 million, this is a solid entry for an animated film that’s not from Disney/Pixar in a period where families aren’t as interested in getting out to the theater as they used to be.

The Northman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Robert Eggers’ first film wasn’t nominated. His second got a Cinematography nomination. This one could as well or it could get blanked. We’ll have to see how it performs with critics and audiences.”
Oscar Results: Still uncertain. The film did well with critics, but not at the box office. The film may also have peaked a bit early in April, which means it may be forgotten in the flood of newer releases.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. For those who’ve seen the director’s prior films, expecting a huge box office take ia stretch. However, this time, he has a much more famous cast and it appears to be a more broadly appealing subject matter than his prior film.”
Box Office Results: $34.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While vikings tend to be popular on the small screen, they haven’t proven a defining force on the big screen. For an indie film, this is a pretty solid total, but it’s not spectacular in the grand scheme of things.

The Unberable Weight of a Massive Talent (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. If Pig couldn’t bring Cage an Oscar nomination, I doubt he’ll get one for playing himself.”
Oscar Results: Still unlikely. Little has happened in the last few months to change how unlikely it is that Cage can get a nomination and his would certainly be the film’s only chance.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Certain actors, playing themselves, or at least well worn character archetypes they usually play, can do somewhat well at the box office. Nicolas Cage may have faded as a box office draw, but he could still draw reasonable business.”
Box Office Results: $20.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] There’s a small market for self-aware films like this, but not enough of one to make a big dent at the box office.