The Writers Guild of America is missing several Oscar nominees due to eligibility issues. What wins here might have some impact on the Oscars, but with unknown quantities like The Banshees of Inisherin missing, we won’t know for sure.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Original Screenplay

Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Thomas)
The Fabelmans (RU:Peter)
The Menu
Nope
Tár (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Since they didn’t nominate The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything has no real competition, even from fellow Oscar nominees The Fabelmans and Tár. Tár could play spoiler here just like it could at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t think Everything Everywhere All at Once is winning here, which should be good news for Tár.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear frontrunner of this group. Its close competitor at the Oscars, The Banshees of Inisherin, was ineligible for the nomination, so this will shed little light on that race. Tár would seem the only one that might come close in this race, but EEAAO should easily win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (RU:Wesley)
She Said (RU:Peter)
Top Gun: Maverick (RU:Thomas)
Women Talking (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Women Talking is the Oscar frontrunner, but only barely. Glass Onion also managed an Oscar nomination and it was a well regarded screenplay (by some). She Said is also a contender even though it’s not an Oscar nominee.
Peter J. Patrick: Women Talking should have clear sailing on this one.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Again, with its main competitor, All Quiet on the Western Front, not nominated, the path for Women Talking to win is set and it would be a shock if it did not prevail.

Documentary Screenplay

2nd Chance (RU:Peter)
Downfall: The Case Against Boeing (Wesley)
Last Flight Home (RU:Thomas)
Moonage Daydream (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
¡Viva Maestro!

Wesley Lovell: The most noted of these documentaries is Moonage Daydream, but it’s seen as more of a feat of editing and style rather than content. I had to go with Downfall because it sounds like the kind of film they might pick.
Peter J. Patrick: This category is a mix of documentaries from minimal theatrical releases to TV-only presentations. The higher profile Moonage Daydream should take it.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: With none of the Oscar nominees here, I think it will come down to the two films that were on the shortlist. I give the edge to Moonage Daydream just because it was more visible than Last Flight Home.