They should probably rename these awards to the Avatar Takes Everything Awards. The VES is the first place we’ll see a surprise before the Oscar envelope opens, so we watch for that reason.

VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY AWARDS

Best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature

Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
The Batman
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There’s really no competition. Avatar has this in the bag.
Peter J. Patrick: Avatar: The Way of Water is the obvious winner here with Top Gun: Maverick and the other contenders merely along for the ride.
Thomas LaTourette: I do not see anything but Avatar winning this. It would be a huge upset if that happens. I imagine it will be the big winner of the night.

Best Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature

Death on the Nile (RU:Thomas)
The Fabelmans (Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Gray Man
I Wanna Dance with Somebody
The Pale Blue Eye
Thirteen Lives (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: This might be an interesting rate. None of the nominees are nominated at the Oscars, but Thirteen Lives was on the Oscar shortlist. That doesn’t mean anything and I suspect Spielberg’s The Fabelmans might be able to pull it off, but it would be a major upset in that situation.
Peter J. Patrick: Thirteen Lives should win this for the amazing work done in the film, but the higher profile Fabelmans could be an upset winner.
Thomas LaTourette: I found the nominees a little strange as none of them were known for the special effects, except perhaps Thirteen Lives. It seems the likely winner.

Best Visual Effects in an Animated Feature

The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Mad God
The Sea Beast (RU:Peter)
Strange World (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Turning Red

Wesley Lovell: The most extravagant animated film usually takes this one, and that’s GDT’s Pinocchio. That said, I wouldn’t count out the unique environments of Strange World.
Peter J. Patrick: I think that this is a toss-up between Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and The Sea Beast.
Thomas LaTourette: Pinocchio probably has the most man made effects which may be a detriment to its winning. Strange World created a very unique world. Though neither film is that flashy. I am not certain what they will be looking for.

Best Animated Character in a Photoreal Feature

Honest John – Pinocchio (RU:Thomas)
Kiri – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Lion – Beast (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Pig – Slumberland

Wesley Lovell: Avatar: The Way of Water will likely sweep all of its nominated categories, so I’m going with Kiri here, though the lion from Beast could also win out.

Best Animated Character in an Animation Feature

Geppetto – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (RU:Peter)
Panda Mei – Turning Red (RU:Wesley)
Pinocchio – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Splat – Strange World (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Pinocchio has the most unique affectations, which could put it in the lead, though the film could split votes and allow Panda Mei to win.

Best Created Environment in a Photoreal Feature

Biosyn Valley – Jurassic World: Dominion
Metkayina Village – Avatar: The Way of Water (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
The Reef – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Wondrous Cuban Hotel Dream – Slumberland

Wesley Lovell: Another category that should easily go to Avatar, though which will win? I’d go for The Reef, which was far more vibrant than the village.

Best Created Environment in an Animated Feature

The Hunting Ship – The Sea Beast (RU:Peter)
In the Stomach of a Sea Monster – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
The Scream Fair – Wendell & Wild (RU:Wesley)
T’Kani Prime Forest – Lightyear
The Windy Jungle – Strange World (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: If there’s a place where GDT’s Pinocchio could lose, it would be here with the elabtorate Scream Fair as likely a contender as any.

Best Effects Simulations in an Photoreal Feature

City Street Flooding – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (RU:Peter)
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Fire and Destruction – Avatar: The Way of Water (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Water Simulations – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The only concern over Avatar having two nominations each in some of these categories that vote splitting is possible. Yet, since this film is all about the water, I go for the water over the fire.

Best Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature

Lightyear (RU:Wesley)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Sea Beast (RU:Peter)
Strange World (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are a lot of dazzling effects in Puss in Boots, but I could also see one of the other nominees here (none of which I’ve seen yet) winning as well.

Best Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project

Dream Faire – Wendell & Wild
F-14 Tomcat – Top Gun: Maverick (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Sea Beast
The Sea Dragon – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Only one Avatar nomination here, so it should win easily.

Best Virtual Cinematography in a CG Project

ABBA: Voyage (RU:Thomas)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Prehistoric Planet
Rain Soaked Car Chase – The Batman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: More Avatar wins.

Best Compositing & Lighting in a Photoreal Feature

Landing Rockets Forest Destruction – Avatar: The Way of Water (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Rainy Freeway Chase – The Batman (RU:Peter)
Top Gun: Maverick
Water Integration – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Another chance for Avatar to split the vote, but water integration is probably a safer bet than the very short segment of the landing rockets.

Best Special (Practical) Effects in a Photoreal or Animated Project

Adrif, Middle Earth Storm – The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Current Machine and Wave Pool – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Mad God
Robotic Flight – Black Adam (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Who doesn’t love practical effects. I could see the Lord of the Rings miniseries winning, but it’s up against Avatar and that’s not likely a winning combination.

Emerging Technology Award

3D Printed Metal Armature – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Depth Comp – Avatar: The Way of Water (Peter)
Facial System – Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Profile Mover and CurveNets – Turning Red
Water Toolset – Avatar: The Way of Water (Thomas, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The only triple Avatar nomination could benefit Turning Red or Pinocchio, but this will likely still go to Avatar. While I’ve championed the water effects in this film, I think the facial system improvements over the first film could certainly triumph