The Spirit Awards recognize indie films only, so major features are never nominated. That said, other than a few instances, the Spirit winners also have a solid correlation to the Oscars…at least in the Best Feature category. The others, not so much.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

Bones and All
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Thomas)
Our Father, the Devil
Tár (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Women Talking (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: If the critics are over-the-moon about Everything, I really can’t see this group not recognizing the Oscar frontrunner.
Peter J. Patrick: I know they like to give this one to the film most likely to win the Oscar, but EEAAO is such an obvious choice that I see this going to one of those less likely to win an Oscar, so either Tár or Women Talking would be my guess.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Everything Everywhere All at Once should continue its winning ways with this award, extra icing on the cake for its upcoming Oscar win.

Best Director

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Thomas)
Todd Field – Tár (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Kogonada – After Yang
Sarah Polley – Women Talking (RU:Peter)
Halina Reijn – Bodies Bodies Bodies

Wesley Lovell: Once again, the Oscar frontrunner is sure to be the Spirit frontrunner.
Peter J. Patrick: As with Best Feature, I think this will go to one of the Oscar contenders but not the perceived favorite, so either Field or Polley.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: It would be most surprising if The Daniels did not win for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Todd Field and Sarah Polley will get some votes but neither should come close to winning.

Best Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett – Tár (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Dale Dickey – A Love Song
Mia Goth – Pearl
Regina Hall – Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal
Jeremy Pope – The Inspection
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Taylor Russell – Bones and All
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: With the two prime Oscar Best Actress contenders here, I could see this going either way. However, I can’t imagine this group not going for Yeoh because they aren’t likely to get many other chances at that.
Peter J. Patrick: This is so asinine. With eight women and two men competing the guys may as well stay home. It’s too close between Blanchett and Yeoh to say which one will win, but no one else would seem to have a chance.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: In a close race between the Oscar frontrunners, I will give the edge to Michelle Yeoh, strengthened by her recent SAG win. It would not be a shock if Cate Blanchett wins, but I am hoping for Yeoh.

Best Supporting Performance

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (RU:Peter)
Nina Hoss – Tár
Brian D’Arcy James – The Cathedral
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Trevante Rhodes – Bruiser
Theo Rossi – Emily the Criminal
Mark Rylance – Bones and All
Jonathan Tucker – Palm Trees and Power Lines
Gabrielle Union – The Inspection

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees are on this list, two from Supporting Actor and one from Supporting Actress. Without Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis could have a path to victory, but Ke Huy Quan has absolutely dominated the season like no other, so the likelihood of his loss is low.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m pretty sure they will give this one to a guy so if for some reason they decide not to give it to Quan, Henry would be the likely beneficiary.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Oscar frontrunner Ke Huy Quan should be the odds-on favorite to win. There will be some support for his costar Jamie Lee Curtis, though they could split the movie’s support and Brian Tyree Henry could sneak in for an upset, though that is doubtful.

Best Screenplay

After Yang
Catherine Called Birdy
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Thomas)
Tár (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Women Talking (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Without The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything has free rein in this category. That said, even at the Oscars, voters are looking places not to recognize the film, so Tár, which had strong support from this group, could easily come out on top.
Peter J. Patrick: Polley is the clear favorite here over Field but either one could win.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The original screenplay of Everything Everywhere All at Once should win over the adaptation of Women Talking.

Best Editing

Aftersun
The Cathedral
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (RU:Peter)
Tár (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: That it’s the frontrunner for the Oscar is probably all you need to know in this category.
Peter J. Patrick: EEAAO’s frantic editing will likely rule here.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: It would seem highly improbable that anything but Everything Everywhere All at Once would win this.

Best Cinematography

Aftersun (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Murina
Neptune Frost
Pearl
Tár (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Tár is the Oscar nominee on the list and I can’t imagine it not winning.
Peter J. Patrick: I don’t know but Tár is the one I would give it to, so I’m predicting that with Aftersun its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Oscar-nominated Tár should have the advantage here. Aftersun is probably its closest competitor.

Best Documentary

All That Breathes (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
A House Made of Splinters
Midwives
Riotsville, U.S.A.

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees, one of which was the “surprise” nominee at the Oscars, means one of them should win. The love for All the Beauty this season should benefit it with this group, unlike at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: Seems to be a battle between the Oscar nominees so it will likely go to either All the Beauty and the Bloodshed or All That Breathes.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: In a race with three of the Oscar nominees, Laura Poitras’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is topical and personal and probably will win over All That Breathes and A House Made of Splinters. Riotsville, USA could surprise.

John Cassavetes Award

The African Desperate
The Cathedral (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Holy Emy
A Love Song (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Something in the Dirt (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Only one of these films has made a name for itself in broader circles this year and that’s A Love Song. While I am predicting it to win, I could imagine something else taking it too.
Peter J. Patrick: I have absolutely no idea on this one, just taking an uneducated guess.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: A Love Song and The Cathedral are the two best reviewed of these, so one of them should win.

Best International Film

Corsage (Peter)
Joyland
Leonor Will Never Die
Return to Seoul (Wesley, Thomas)
Saint Omer (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: None of these was an Oscar nominee, so we’re left to make a selection based on other criteria. Or not. Corsage, Joyland, Return to Seoul, and Saint Omer were all shortlisters at the Oscars. That suggests they all have designs on the Oscars. The former two, however, were the best received of them all and were also discussed as possible Oscar contenders before they failed to get nominated, so that’s why I focused on them in the winner/runner-up positions.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m guessing either Corsage or Saint Omer.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Corsage may have had the most recent release, but Saint Omer and Return to Seoul seem to have more traction.

Truer Than Fiction Award

Isabel Castro (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Reid Davenport (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Rebeca Huntt (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Previous years had seen this award announced prior to the ceremony. Unfortunately, that’s not been the case so far, so I have to make a guess. I’m honestly torn. I don’t know enough about these individuals to say which might be selected, so these are guesses.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m thinking Huntt for Beba over Davenport for I Didn’t See You There.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Reid Davenport’s I Didn’t See You There sounds like the most interesting one of the bunch.

Best First Feature

Aftersun (Wesley, Peter)
Emily the Criminal (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Inspection
Murina
Palm Trees and Powerlines

Wesley Lovell: Aftersun, Emily the Criminal, and Murina were nominated by the DGA for debut feature, which puts them in the main position. Of them all, Charlotte Wells dominated the precursors, so I imagine she’s probably the lead contender.
Peter J. Patrick: The wildly popular Aftersun should take this one easily.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Aftersun had the widest release and best reception of these. If it doesn’t win, look for it to go to either The Inspection or Emily the Criminal.

Best Breakthrough Performance

Frankie Corio – Aftersun (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Gracija Filipovic – Murina
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Lily McInerny – Palm Trees and Power Lines
Daniel Zolghadri – Funny Pages

Wesley Lovell: Stephanie Hsu is the only person in this group that’s in a film in the Best Feature race. I imagine she has the best chance of winning, though I wouldn’t count out any of the others, especially young Frankie Corio.
Peter J. Patrick: Hsu seems likely over Corio and the rest, but assuming this will be presented before Lead Performance, a win for anyone other than Hsu could foretell that Yeoh will not win in lead.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Stephanie Hsu should win for her dual performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. There is a reason she was Oscar-nominated for it.

Best First Screenplay

Bodies Bodies Bodies (RU:Wesley)
Emergency (RU:Peter)
Emily the Criminal (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Fire Island (RU:Thomas)
Palm Trees and Powerlines

Wesley Lovell: Emily the Criminal is the best reviewed of these, so I forecast it as the winner, though Bodies Bodies Bodies might surprise (as might any of them really).
Peter J. Patrick: I think Emily the Criminal has little to no competition with this one.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This is the one place where Emily the Criminal looks to win out of its four nominations.

Producers Award

Liz Cardenas (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Tory Lenosky (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
David Grove Churchill Viste (Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Another category that’s usually announced by now, so just guesses.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m not familiar with any of the nominees, so again, just guessing.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: David Grove Churchill Viste has the best record of the three nominees,

Someone to Watch Award

Adamma Ebo (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Nikyatu Jusu (Thomas)
Araceli Lemos (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: More guesses.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably the slightly more publicized Ebo.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Nikyatu Jusu’s film Nanny looks the most interesting of the three, but Adamma Ebo’s film had the wider release.