For years, the overlap between the DGA winner and the Oscar winner was near exact. That’s not so much true anymore, but if something odd wins, it’s usually signs of impending changes. This will tell us if the status quo is maintained or altered.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Todd Field – Tár
Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The winner here could easily foreshadow the Oscars and, in that vein, I suspect Everything Everywhere All at Once has the edge, though Martin McDonagh or Steven Spielberg could also win. And don’t count out Joseph Kosinski. He might be the only non-Oscar nominee in the bunch, but his film appeals to the machismo element of the old guard of the DGA.
Peter J. Patrick: Spielberg has won this award three times, the last in 1998, as well as a life achievement award in 2000, so he doesn’t need another one but he is the sentimental favorite barring a surge for the Daniels.
Tripp Burton: I think this, like the Oscars, will come down to the bold newcomers (The Daniels) and the legendary master (Spielberg), and the exuberance of Everything Everywhere All at Once wins out.
Thomas LaTourette: When it came out, I never expected Everything Everywhere All at Once to be a frontrunner in anything, especially director. Steven Spielberg looked poised to sweep everything with his autobiographical film, The Fabelmans. It just never received the love from the critics groups that I expected, though he could be a sentimental winner. Instead, it does look like the Daniels will win this.

Best First Feature

Alice Diop – Saint Omer (RU:Thomas)
Audrey Diwan – Happening
John Patton Ford – Emily the Criminal (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic – Murina
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: It would be a bit surprising if Charlotte Wells didn’t take this. After all, she’s the most celebrated of the nominees. That said, Alice Diop and and John Patton Ford have also earned some praise and either could triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: Wells is the likely winner for the well-received Aftersun, but Patton Ford being the only male nominee could win in the unlikely event that the four women cancel one another out.
Tripp Burton: Aftersun has picked up the majority of these awards, and it won’t stop here.
Thomas LaTourette: The two films that had the widest releases seem the likeliest to win. Even though I did not get it, Aftersun with one Oscar nod could be the winner. Saint Omer seems a good second choice.

Best Documentary Director

Sara Dosa – Fire of Love (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Matthew Heineman – Retrograde
Laura Poitras – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Daniel Roher – Navalny (Tripp, RU:Peter)
Shaunak Sen – All That Breathes

Wesley Lovell: The DGA is really hard to understand when it comes to recognizing documentaries. While I would say that Fire of Love has a decent shot at the Oscars, Laura Poitras is the best known of these documentarians. Of course, the DGA could go with any of them, so this is a tight race.
Peter J. Patrick: Previous winner Poitras should take this easily with Roher her closest rival.
Tripp Burton: This category can be hard, but the almost narrative tension of Navalny seems the most directed.
Thomas LaTourette: In a rare surprise, four of the five nominees here are also Oscar nominees. I rarely understand how the DGA votes on this category so not sure how to predict. I will go with Laura Poitras, who is a previous Oscar winner, to triumph. Fire of Love seems to have the best word of mouth, so I will put it in second, but any of them could win.