The organization with the closest membership composition to the Academy is the British Academy. They, of course, have their predilections, but sometimes they can foreshadow trends we wouldn’t have otherwise considered.

BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM & TELEVISION ARTS AWARDS

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Tár (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The only place that is likely to see The Banshees of Inisherin triumph over Everything Everywhere All at Once. If the latter can win, then it’s likely over at the Oscars, but if the former wins here, it doesn’t mean a lot, but it could also signal a fierce competition at the Oscars. It will be hard to say for certain.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m predicting an upset for Tár over The Banshees of Inisherin, which is the frontrunner for Outstanding British Film, All Quiet on the Western Front, which has the most nominations, and Everything Everywhere All at Once, which has the hype because it seems like a BAFTA thing to do.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The BAFTAs have a strong tilt towards British films, so The Banshees of Inisherin will probably triumph over Everything Everywhere All at Once. Though if EEAAO wins, then the Oscar is pretty much set.

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Turning Red (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: GDT’s Pinocchio is the season-long frontrunner, so I can’t imagine it losing.
Peter J. Patrick: Guillermo de Toro’s Pinocchio is the clear favorite here with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish as likely as any to win in an upset.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should easily win.

Best Director

Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front
Todd Field – Tár (Peter)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave
Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King

Wesley Lovell: This is the group most likely to go a different direction from the Oscars, but if Everything is so dominant in the top race, I can’t imagine it not competing in this one.
Peter J. Patrick: With no Spielberg in the race, this becomes one between Field, the Daniels, and McDonagh, with Field poised to take it in an upset.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Even though I said that The Banshees of Inisherin would win for best picture, I think director will go the The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once which was a stronger feat of directing.

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Brendan Fraser – The Whale (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Daryl McCormack – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living

Wesley Lovell: Hometown boy Colin Farrell has his best chance to win here. If Brendan Fraser wins, then Farrell’s Oscar chances go up in smoke.
Peter J. Patrick: Farrell for sure, with Fraser a distant second.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Irish actor Colin Farrell should ride the wave of love for Banshees to win the BAFTA. I do not think anyone else stands much of a chance.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With BAFTA being a bit more reserved, I suspect that Cate Blanchett has her best chance here, but if Yeoh wins, the Oscar is probably hers.
Peter J. Patrick: This is Blanchett’s to lose with Yeoh the only likely alternative.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Cate Blanchett will probably win for Tar, though I will be hoping for an upset by Michelle Yeoh.

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Peter)
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch – All Quiet on the Western Front
Michael Ward – Empire of Light

Wesley Lovell: There are a lot of strong hometown actors here and Brendan Gleeson has won more awards than Keoghan has, so he has a good shot of winning. However, Ke Huy Quan is the frontrunner and the big news will be if he loses rather than if he wins.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going with an upset win for Keoghan over the heavily favored Quan and Keoghan’s co-star Gleeson.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Ke Huy Quan has dominated the precursors and should easily add the BAFTA to his list.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Carey Mulligan – She Said

Wesley Lovell: While Angela Bassett seems a solid best for the Oscars, Kerry Condon has her best chance to pick up a prize at BAFTA and it’s probably the safer bet.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s close. Condon should win here, but Bassett could just as easily take it.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Kerry Condon will win the BAFTA, though Angela Bassett will get the Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: While Everything leads in the top races, McDonagh has to be recognized and I suspect here is his best chance.
Peter J. Patrick: Should be The Banshees of Inisherin easily, with Triangle of Sadness as likely as any to pull off an upset.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The British tilt should easily hand the BAFTA to Martin McDonagh for his screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Living (Tripp, Thomas)
The Quiet Girl (RU:Peter)
She Said (RU:Wesley)
The Whale

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough choice. The biggest Oscar contender isn’t nominated here, which could pave the way for the latest adaptation of the novel All Quiet on the Western Front probably has its second best chance at winning with BAFTA in this category.
Peter J. Patrick: With Women Talking not nominated, this becomes an easy win for All Quiet on the Western Front with The Quiet Girl as likely as any to provide an upset.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Being a very British movie, even if it was adapted from a Japanese one, Living is likely to win.

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front (Peter)
Babylon (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
The Banshees of Inisherin (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Wesley Lovell: Justin Hurwitz seems to be the Oscar leader, but Banshees and All Quiet both have a decent shot at winning one of the toughest categories to predict this year.
Peter J. Patrick: A close call but I see the classical score of All Quiet on the Western Front taking it over the tunes of The Banshees of Inisherin.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: If Babylon wins over Banshees here, then it probably also has the Oscar sewn up.

Best Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Everything‘s strength is in its chaos and the voters love chaos. However, don’t count out action-oriented All Quiet and Top Gun: Maverick as both have the kind of editing that is equally well loved.
Peter J. Patrick: Here’s where Top Gun: Maverick should win, with Everything Everywhere All at Once also a possibility.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Creating the multiverse of EEAAO should lead it to a win.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The film that would have been the Oscar frontrunner had it been nominated is Top Gun: Maverick, so I suspect it has the edge with BAFTA. That said, All Quiet and Empire of Light are visually impressive films that could win as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Should be an easy win for All Quiet on the Western Front unless they really want to give it to Top Gun: Maverick.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The striking imagery of battles in the trenches of WWI should propel All Quiet on the Western Front to win.

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front (RU:Tripp)
Babylon (Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Batman (Peter)
Elvis (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This will be the test of whether the largely disliked Babylon can win out over the slickly produced Elvis. The way this award goes may signal the way the Oscar goes.
Peter J. Patrick: The Batman seems likely, but a win for the animated Guillermo de Toro’s Pinocchio would be an interesting choice.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Babylon probably deserves to win, but it will probably go the Elvis.

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Elvis (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Peter, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Will Catherine Martin win both or neither. This category will tell us the answer to that. Elvis Presley was none for his gaudy ensembles, especially late in life, and that could benefit Martin’s chances.
Peter J. Patrick: The costume designer’s film, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, should take this one, with Elvis nipping at its heels.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Elvis probably wins over Babylon.

Best Makeup & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front (Peter)
The Batman (RU:Tripp)
Elvis (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: I’m going with the Oscar frontrunner, but wouldn’t be surprised of All Quiet or Elvis triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: All those bloodied soldiers in All Quiet on the Western Front over Brendan Fraser’s makeup in The Whale should take this.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This will be a tight race, though The Whale probably has the edge to win.

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Avatar: The Way of Water (RU:Tripp)
Elvis
Tár (Peter)
Top Gun: Maverick (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Voters love their war films, but sound was so crucial to Top Gun‘s success that I can’t imagine it losing out to All Quiet.
Peter J. Patrick: The brilliance of Tár should prevail here over Top Gun: Maverick.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This would seem like Top Gun’s to lose, but, with all the love shown for All Quiet on the Western Front, I could see it pulling off an upset win.

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Batman
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Avatar: The Way of Water has been the frontrunner since it was announced to release this past year. Nothing will likely get in its way.
Peter J. Patrick: More being the operative word in this category, probably Avatar: The Way of Water over Top Gun: Maverick.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: As will be the case with the Oscar, Avatar will win and have no serious competition.

Best Casting

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front (RU:Peter)
Elvis (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Triangle of Sadness (Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: A category without much correlation from other organizations. It makes things a bit difficult to predict. The spot-on casting of Everything has a lot of potential, but Elvis needed and got the perfect lead. However, Tom Hanks’ casting in that film has been vilified, so it probably won’t win, clearing the way for Everything.
Peter J. Patrick: I would give it to Triangle of Sadness, but will they? All Quiet on the Western Front would be a worthy choice as well.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: With three individual acting nominees, EEAAO should easily win for casting.

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Argentina, 1985 (RU:Wesley)
Corsage
Decision to Leave (RU:Peter)
The Quiet Girl (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Its massive nomination tally suggests All Quiet has no competition, but both Argentina, 1985 and Decision to Leave have their adherents and could surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: All Quiet on the Western Front should win this handily with Decision to Leave as likely as any to pull an upset.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: With 13 other nominations, it would be a shock if All Quiet on the Western Front did not win.

Best Documentary

All That Breathes (RU:Peter)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Fire of Love (Wesley)
Moonage Daydream
Navalny (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is the best test for whether Fire of Love can win at the Oscars. I can imagine all but Moonage Daydream triumphing, though.
Peter J. Patrick: A close race this one, with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed slightly out in front of All That Breathes and Navalny.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Moonage Daydream is about British singer and actor David Bowie, so it could win, though it was not my favorite. I wonder if the more topical Navany or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed will prevail instead.

Best British Short Animation

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Middle Watch (RU:Tripp)
Your Mountain Is Waiting (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While The Boy is the only Oscar nominee of this bunch, the other two films aren’t as widely seen and could benefit from this exposure, but I’ll lean into the sole Oscar nominee as winner.
Peter J. Patrick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse has got this.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The very British and Oscar-nominated The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse seems the likely winner.

Best British Short Film

The Ballad of Olive Morris (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Bazigaga
Bus Girl (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
A Drifing Up
An Irish Goodbye (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Another situation where the Oscar nominee has the best shot.
Peter J. Patrick: The Oscar-nominated An Irish Goodbye should take this over the competition.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: An Irish Goodbye is the only one of these I have heard of, so I will choose it to win.

Rising Star Award

Aimee Lou Wood
Daryl McCormack (Thomas, RU:Peter)
Emma Mackey (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Naomi Ackie (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Sheila Atim

Wesley Lovell: My gut says Emma Mackey, but my heart says Naomi Ackie who was an actual longlist contender with BAFTA. All of that said, this is voted on by the public, so it could go any direction.
Peter J. Patrick: I see this as between Mackey and McCormack, but you never know.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Daryl McCormack made a big splash in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande so I think he could go on to win.

Best British Film

Aftersun (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Brian and Charles
Empire of Light
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Living (RU:Thomas)
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder

Wesley Lovell: Since BAFTA voters will likely go for Everything in Best Film, this is their best chance to recognize Inisherin.
Peter J. Patrick: The Banshees of Inisherin should be an easy winner here, with Aftersun its closest competition.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Banshees of Inisherin is the very likely winner.

Outstanding British Debut

Katy Brand – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Maia Kenworthy – Rebellion
Marie Lidén – Electric Malady
Georgia Oakley – Blue Jean (RU:Tripp)
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Charlotte Wells has the most name recognition of the bunch and is likely to triumph. Wells and Brand are the only two to direct films up for Best British Film, so they are probably the most likely contenders.
Peter J. Patrick: Aftersun should run away with this one, with Good Luck to You, Leo Grande as likely as any to pull an upset.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Katy Brand’s and Charlotte Wells’ films got the most international recognition, so they are the likely winners. I liked Good Luck to You, Leo Grande more, so will choose Katy Brand to win.