The Art Directors Guild links up best to the Production Design category, but they also have three chances to get it right usually, though this year, two of the biggest contenders are in the period category together, so it might tell us how things are going.

ART DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Period Art Direction

All Quiet on the Western Front (RU:Tripp)
Babylon (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Elvis (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Fabelmans
White Noise

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category, but comes down to one of three contenders. All Quiet…, Babylon, and Elvis. The statistic at the Oscars that’s hard to ignore is that every time Catherine Martin has been nominated for both Production Design and Costume Design, she’s won both. You can’t use that statistic here exactly, but of her two prior nominations with the Art Directors Guild, she’s won both. Records are made to be broken and Babylon has oh so many sets that are critical to the story, especially the interior sound studio and the opening array of unique shooting stages in the California desert, and that could be enough to earn the ADG’s respect, especially since any of them who grew up on old Hollywood films will find a kinship with the sets in Babylon.
Peter J. Patrick: Babylon has the most impressive sets, but Elvis has a lot, so it’s a bit of a toss-up, but I think Babylon will prevail.
Tripp Burton: I tend not to bet against Catherine Martin in these awards, but the powerhouse of All Quiet on the Western Front and Netflix might upset it.
Thomas LaTourette: This should be an interesting race between old Hollywood and vintage Las Vegas. I would think that Babylon would have the advantage, but it looks to go to Elvis instead. All Quiet on the Western Front lurks as a potential upset, but I think its chances are minimal. The winner may shed some light on where the Oscar may go.

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Avatar: The Way of Water (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Batman (RU:Peter)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (RU:Wesley)
Nope

Wesley Lovell: Art direction is absolutely key to the success of Avatar and I can’t imagine it losing to just anything. Creative energy on Everything Everywhere All at Once could propel it to the winner’s circle.
Peter J. Patrick: Whatever one might think of the film, the production design for Avatar: The Way of Water is hard to fault, with The Batman its only real competition.
Tripp Burton: Avatar: The Way of Water is the only Oscar nominee here, so I will go with that.
Thomas LaTourette: Everything but Nope stands a chance of winning, with Avatar perhaps having the edge. Strong cases could be made for every film. I am uncertain of how it will go.

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Bullet Train
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Tár (Peter, RU:Wesley)
Top Gun: Maverick (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The set plays such a crucial role to the success of Glass Onion that I can’t imagine it losing to anything much on this list since most of the others are utilitarian at best. A surprise from Bullet Train is possible, but doubtful. Everything else seems a bit too minimal to win.
Peter J. Patrick: The tasteful designs of Tár are hard to top but if they want to award the gaudy over-the-top designs of Glass Onion, I suppose they will. Here’s hoping good taste prevails.
Tripp Burton: I don’t see them passing up on the island wonders that fill Glass Onion.
Thomas LaTourette: Glass Onion boasted the most imaginative sets, so it should prevail.