With the Oscar nominations announced, Oscar season shifts into phase 2, a period that will be filled with several guild awards and a lot of jockeying for position. Here are our initial predictions.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists Appears on Three Lists Appears on Two Lists Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction [Return] = Prior Prediction Returning (O) = Original Prediction

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: With the nominations announced, a few of my initial winner predictions weren’t nominated and a few needed to be replaced considering the nominations. That’s about all there is to say about it.
Peter J. Patrick: No introductory paragraph provided.
Tripp Burton: No introductory paragraph provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Academy always manages to surprise. I did fairly well in my predictions, but there are the occasional categories where I was brought up short. Viola Davis and especially Danielle Deadwyler had seemed pretty solid to be nominated for best actress. I, and pretty much everyone, have yet to see Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, so I cannot really judge that performance yet. I am surprised that Michelle Williams pulled off the nom for best actress. She was good in The Fabelmans, but it was truly a supporting role. Paul Dano not getting a nomination for the same movie is sad as he was probably more deserving. The success of Triangle of Sadness with noms for both picture and surprisingly director is one of the biggest shocks of the morning. It was in my eleventh spot for picture, just below Glass Onion which did not get nominated, but not on my radar at all for a directing nom. Two of my front runners to win, Top Gun: Maverick for cinematography and Women Talking for score were not even nominated. The former is a pretty big upset as most prognosticators thought it would win. There are a couple nice surprises like Everything Everywhere All at Once picking up a costume design nom as well as one for score. Definitely deserving for the former. I am sure some of my choices will change between now and March, but here is my first set of predictions for who will win.

Best Picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Runners Up

• The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (PP O)
• The Fabelmans (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: EEAAO is undoubtedly the front-runner, but upsets tend to happen a lot in this category with its preferential ballot. Not only could AQOTWF become the first remake of a previous Oscar winner to win, but it could also win all of its 9 nominations a la Gigi which won all of its nine nominations without an acting nod 64 years ago.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Animated Feature

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Runners Up

• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PP O) (TB O)
• Turning Red (WL O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinochio will win this one, hands down.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Directing

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels (WL O) (TB O)
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg (PP O) (TL O)
• Tár – Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Ostlund

Runners Up

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh (WL O)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels (PP O) (TL O)
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Spielberg is the clear favorite, but the Daniels could win if EEAAO’s popularity remains high.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Actor

• Austin Butler – Elvis
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (PP O) (TB O)
• Brendan Fraser – Whale (WL O) (TL O)
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun
• Bill Nighy – Living

Runners Up

• Austin Butler – Elvis (TB O) (TL O)
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O)
• Brendan Fraser – Whale (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: A tough call between Farrell and Fraser – one or the other will win.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Tár (PP O) (TL O)
• Ana de Armas – Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O)

Runners Up

• Cate Blanchett – Tár (WL O) (TB O)
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (PP O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Blanchett wins on performance, Yeoh on sentiment, like Best Actor, it’s a real toss-up.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Quan is virtually unbeatable with veteran Gleeson a distant second in the race.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hong Chau – The Whale
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runners Up

• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Bassett has the momentum over early favorite Condon, but Condon could still surprise.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

Runners Up

• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Triangle of Sadness (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Banshees should win this one easily.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (TB O)
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking (WL O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O)
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (TL O)
• Women Talking (PP O) (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: This is AQOTWF’s most vulnerable nomination, but Women Talking having been snubbed in direction and the acting categories is not the sure bet it was once thought to be.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Original Score

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• Babylon (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

Runners Up

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O)
• The Banshees of Inisherin (PP O)
• The Fabelmans (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: AQOTWF should take this one easily.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Original Song

• Applause – Tell It Like a Woman
• Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick
• Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Naatu Naatu – RRR (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• This Is a Life – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runners Up

• Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the only category for which fans of RRR can vote for it, making it the presumptive favorite.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Film Editing

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick (TL O)

Runners Up

• Everything Everywhere All at Once (TL O)
• Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: EEAAO will surely take this one.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Cinematography

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
• Elvis
• Empire of Light (TL O)
• Tár

Runners Up

• All Quiet on the Western Front (TL O)
• Elvis (TB O)
• Empire of Light (WL O)
• Tár (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be another easy win for AQOTWF.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Production Design

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon (WL O) (TB O)
• Elvis (TL O)
• The Fabelmans

Runners Up

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (TB O)
• Babylon (TL O)
• The Fabelmans (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Looks like another box checked for AQOTWF.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Costume Design

• Babylon (TB O)
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PP O)
• Elvis (WL O) (TL O)
• Everything Everywhre All at Once
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Runners Up

• Babylon (TL O)
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (WL O)
• Elvis (TB O)
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has the most inventive costume designs but Mrs. Harris is a dress designer’s dream film so it could pull an upset.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis (TL O)
• The Whale (WL O) (TB O)

Runners Up

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O)
• Elvis (TB O)
• The Whale (PP O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: The makeup for AQOTWF was extensive, whereas The Whale’s was primarily a one-off on Brendon Fraser, which gives it a slight edge, but either one could win.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Sound

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (TB O)
• Avatar: The Way of Water (TL O)
• Top Gun: Maverick (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: If they really want to give something to Top Gun: Maverick this would be one of two categories in which they could do it, but I’m not so sure that they are that eager- default to AQOTWF.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Visual Effects

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• Avatar: The Way of Water (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Runners Up

• Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Same as with Production Design.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best International Feature Film

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Argentina, 1985
• Close
• EO
• The Quiet Girl

Runners Up

• Argentina, 1985 (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• EO (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: A loss for AQOTWF in this category would be a shock.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Documentary Feature

• All That Breathes (TL O)
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PP O) (TB O)
• Fire of Love (WL O)
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny

Runners Up

• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (WL O)
• Fire of Love (TL O)
• Navalny (PP O) (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: These are the two front-runners at the moment.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The Elephant Whisperers (TL O)
• Haulout
• How Do You Measure a Year? (WL O) (PP O)
• The Martha Mitchell Effect
• Stranger at the Gate (TB O)

Runners Up

• Haulout (TB O)
• How Do You Measure a Year? (TL O)
• The Martha Mitchell Effect (PP O)
• Stranger at the Gate (WL O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m not familiar with any of the nominees, but these two titles sound like winners.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Animated Short Film

• The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Flying Sailor
• Ice Merchants
• My Year of Dicks (PP O)
• An Ostricth Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Runners Up

• The Flying Sailor (TL O)
• Ice Merchants (TB O)
• An Ostricth Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (WL O) (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: Judging by the laughs it got at the nominations, I think many will vote for My Year of Dicks just to get an audience reaction.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• An Irish Goodbye (PP O)
• Ivalu
• Night Ride
• Le Pupille (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Red Suitcase

Runners Up

• An Irish Goodbye (TL O)
• Night Ride (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: No individual category commentary at this time.
Peter J. Patrick: There is nothing like an Irish wake, otherwise known as an Irish goodbye.
Tripp Burton: No individual category commentary at this time.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual category commentary at this time.