And now it’s time for our final Oscar predictions. Knowing what we know now and having seen how all of the crucial guilds have worked themselves out, it’s time to reveal to you our thoughts on what will win this year’s Academy Awards.

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: While it might seem like a fairly predictable year when looking at how much everyone loves Everything Everywhere All at Once, the year has been characterized by a lot of back-and-forth in several categories. While we’ve tried to guess at what those might be, we most certainly have not gotten everything right. If we did, then we’d be shocked.
Peter J. Patrick: No introductory paragraph provided. Individual category comments below.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Oscars are just days away and soon we will find out how we all did in predicting. There are some categories where the choice seems absolutely set (directing, supporting actor, cinematography, visual effects, song, international feature and animated feature). But there are a surprising number of categories that could go a couple of different ways (actor, actress, supporting actress, both screenplays, makeup and score). It makes for a more exciting show with so much undecided. It does look like Everything Everywhere All at Once will sweep, but there are possibilities where it might not happen. And no, that is not due to the multiverse. Actress, supporting actress and original screenplay could easily go against it. And the preferential ballot could let another movie in to win that is more palatable to the full Academy’s taste. I hope that does not happen, but it could.

Some movies like Babylon and Bardo sounded like they would be major players at the awards, and then fizzled upon their releases. Both were from Academy Award winners, but that did not mean they would be as good as their earlier work. The Fabelmans, a semi-autobiographical film from Steven Spielberg, seemed like true Oscar bait. It scored seven nominations, but looks unlikely to win any of them, even best director for Spielberg. Some films like Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front slid in under the radar when first released and then became behemoths when it came to nominations. That is what makes doing this so fun. I am not sure how it will all play out on Sunday, but I will enjoying seeing it all.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists Appears on Three Lists Appears on Two Lists Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction [Return] = Prior Prediction Returning (O) = Original Prediction (R) = Rundown Series (F) = Final Winner Predictions

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin (PP R)
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL R) (PP O) (TL R)
• The Fabelmans (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m anticipating an upset due to preferential balloting with either The Banshees of Inisherin or All Quiet on the Western Front taking it depending on whichever one places highest on most lists.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Everything Everywhere All at Once was a well-made film, an unexpected family drama and a surprising box office hit and thoroughly deserves to win.

Best Animated Feature

Winner Predictions

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Runner-Up Predictions

• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (WL R) (PP O) (TB O)
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will win this one, hands down.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Nothing will stop Pinocchio from winning. It has over half the precursors, with wins by PGA, DGA, BAFTA, and especially the Annies cementing its frontrunner status. It is difficult to imagine any other name being called out on Oscar night.

Best Directing

Winner Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels (WL O) (TB O) (TL R)
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg
• Tár – Todd Field (PP F) [New]
• Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Ostlund

Runner-Up Predictions

• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels (PP O)
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg (WL F) [New] (TB O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: The Daniels are now the favorite, but Oscar loves actors turned directors boosting the chances of infrequent contributor Field.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: When Everything Everywhere All at Once opened months ago, I thought it might pull off a screenplay award but never expected it to get the most nominations of any film this year. Now it looks to be the prohibitive favorite to win for directing.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Austin Butler – Elvis (WL R)
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (PP O) (TB O)
• Brendan Fraser – Whale (TL O)
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun
• Bill Nighy – Living

Runner-Up Predictions

• Austin Butler – Elvis (TB O) (TL O)
• Brendan Fraser – Whale (WL R) (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: A tough call between Farrell and Fraser – one or the other will win.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This is an absolute toss-up between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Fraser has the come back story but Butler is in the best picture-nominated biopic. It could go to either, though I am thinking it might be the more seasoned actor who wins.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Cate Blanchett – Tár (PP O)
• Ana de Armas – Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL R)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Cate Blanchett – Tár (WL O) (TB O) (TL R)
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Blanchett wins on performance, Yeoh on sentiment, like Best Actor, it’s a real toss-up.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This has been a tight two-person race all season, still with no clear frontrunner. History favors the BAFTA winner Cate Blanchett over the SAG winner Michelle Yeoh, but I still think it will be Yeoh. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (TB O) (TL O)
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (WL R) (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Quan is virtually unbeatable but I’m hoping for a repeat of BAFTA’s upset win for Keoghan.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This feels like one of the easiest races to call as Ke Huy Quan has dominated the precursors, winning over 80% of them. Unless there is a major upset, truly a major one, Ke Huy Quan easily wins.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (TB O)
• Hong Chau – The Whale
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (PP R)
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL F) [New] (TL R)
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up Predictions

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (WL F) [New] (PP R) (TL R)
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (TB O)
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Condon is Banshees’ best chance for a win despite Curtis’ excessive campaigning.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Until the last two televised awards, this was looking like Angela Basset’s to lose, but now it is looking like she might. The unexpected win by Jamie Lee Curtis at SAG changed the tide. It has suddenly turned into a tight race, but Jamie Lee Curtis looks like she just might win it.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (TL R)
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin (TL R)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O)
• Triangle of Sadness (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Banshees should win this one easily.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This has always felt like a race between just two competitors, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once, and it still is. I would not be surprised if Banshees wins, but it feels like EEAAO is on a roll and will likely pick up the win here as well as many others.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (TB O)
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking (WL O) (PP R) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP R) (TL R)
• Women Talking (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Women Talking has regained its momentum.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: With the USC Scripter and guild awards from last weekend, Women Talking stays in front with All Quiet on the Western Front as the only one that might surprise.

Best Original Song

Winner Predictions

• Applause – Tell It Like a Woman
• Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick
• Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Naatu Naatu – RRR (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• This Is a Life – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up Predictions

• Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (TB O)
• Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PP F) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the only category for which fans of RRR can vote for it, making it the presumptive favorite.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This definitely looks like a win for Naatu Naatu.

Best Original Score

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Banshees of Inisherin (PP R)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Fabelmans (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: I would be happy with a win for either Banshees or AQOTWF.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: While John Williams and The Fabelmans will give it a decent try, look for Babylon to win. Its main competition now may be the intriguing score from All Quiet on the Western Front.

Best Film Editing

Winner Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL R)
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up Predictions

• Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: EEAAO will surely take this one.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This should be an easy win for Everything Everywhere All at Once with Top Gun being the only film that could conceivably upset.

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL R)
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
• Elvis
• Empire of Light
• Tár

Runner-Up Predictions

• Elvis (WL R) (TB O) (TL R)
• Tár (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be another easy win for AQOTWF.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Even though Elvis won the guild award, I think this will go to All Quiet on the Western Front.

Best Production Design

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL R)
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB O)
• Elvis (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Babylon leaves the strongest impression.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the world of the silent and talking soundstages, tunnels, and grand mansions of early Hollywood will propel Babylon to a win, though either Elvis or All Quiet on the Western front could upset.

Best Costume Design

Winner Predictions

• Babylon (PP F) [New] (TB O)
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis (WL O) (TL O)
• Everything Everywhre All at Once
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Runner-Up Predictions

• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Elvis (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the second category in which Babylon impresses the most.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: With its win from the Costume Designers Guild, Elvis has set itself up as the frontrunner. Elvis with the BAFTA and guild awards is the one to beat.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (PP O)
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis (WL R) (TL O)
• The Whale (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Elvis (TB O)
• The Whale (WL F) [New] (PP O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: The makeup for AQOTWF was extensive, whereas The Whale’s was primarily a one-off on Brendon Fraser, which gives it a slight edge, but either one could win.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This is really a toss-up between The Whale and Elvis and either could win. I will lean towards Elvis, but could easily imagine it going to The Whale.

Best Sound

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: If they really want to give something to Top Gun: Maverick, this would be one of two categories in which they could do it.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Top Gun looks to be the easy winner unless All Quiet pulls the kind of sweep that it did at the BAFTAs, which seems unlikely.

Best Visual Effects

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up Predictions

• Top Gun: Maverick (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: Seems to be a slam dunk for the Avatar sequel.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: This is one of the most set awards for the Oscars. If anything besides Avatar: The Way of Water wins, it will be a major upset. It has dominated the precursor awards, Including the BAFTAs. It won every category it was nominated in at the Visual Effects Society awards.

Best International Feature Film

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Argentina, 1985
• Close
• EO
• The Quiet Girl

Runner-Up Predictions

• Argentina, 1985 (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TL O)
• Close (TB R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: A loss for AQOTWF in this category would be a shock.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Especially after dominating the BAFTAs, I cannot imagine anything but All Quiet on the Western Front winning this award. It would be a major upset if anything but All Quiet on the Western Front wins this Oscar.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (TB O)
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny (WL R) (PP R) (TL R)

Runner-Up Predictions

• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (WL F) [New]
• Fire of Love (PP F) [New] (TL O)
• Navalny (TB O)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: These are now the two front-runners.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: Navalny has been on a tear lately, winning the BAFTA and the Producers Guild awards, and it looks like it is headed for an Oscar too

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• The Elephant Whisperers (PP R) (TL O)
• Haulout
• How Do You Measure a Year?
• The Martha Mitchell Effect
• Stranger at the Gate (WL R) (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Elephant Whisperers (WL R) (TB R)
• Stranger at the Gate (PP R) (TL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: A tough call between these two.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Elephant Whisperers is the type of feel good film that wins in this category and I imagine it will be the winner

Best Animated Short Film

Winner Predictions

• The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• The Flying Sailor
• Ice Merchants
• My Year of Dicks
• An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Runner-Up Predictions

• Ice Merchants (TB O)
• My Year of Dicks (WL F) [New] (TL R)
• An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse seems like a certain winner.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The likely winner is The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. It is a sweet but overly sentimental tale and the most kid-friendly of the bunch.

Best Live-Action Short Film

Winner Predictions

• An Irish Goodbye (PP O)
• Ivalu
• Night Ride
• Le Pupille (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Red Suitcase

Runner-Up Predictions

• Night Ride (PP O)
• The Red Suitcase (WL R) (TB R) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My full thoughts posted earlier this morning.
Peter J. Patrick: There is nothing like an Irish wake, otherwise known as an Irish goodbye.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Red Suitcase about a young Irani girl in the Luxembourg airport becomes a taut thriller. It would be my choice to win, even if the ending is a bit enigmatic. Still, I expect the Academy to go for one of the two feel-good films, with Le Pupille probably coming out on top.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists Appears on Three Lists Appears on Two Lists Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction [Return] = Prior Prediction Returning (O) = Original Prediction (R) = Rundown Series (F) = Final Winner Predictions