Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

September 2, 2022

Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Now None. Although the film got a smattering of support through precursor season, it wasn’t destined for the Oscars.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There will be a segment of the population that will flock to this, but will it be a large enough batch of attendees to turn it into a surprise hit? Seems doubtful.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film seemed like it would have a built-in demographic, but that view appears to have been wrong considering how much of a flop this was.

Clerks III

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $18 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film made just over $3 million in 1994. The second film pulled in over $24 million 12 years later. We’re now 16 years after that and could it be an equally large jump? I doubt it. If anything, my hunch is that it’s likely to take a drop in tally in its third outing.”
Box Office Results: $4.67 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No one really expected the film to to do great business and it didn’t, but the numbers aren’t bad for something that was also streaming.

September 9, 2022

Barbarian

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s not quite in the perfect cooridor for pre-Halloween ticket sales, but a September release is pretty close to it, so it could do decently well, though it’s doubtful it can make too much at a box office that hasn’t supported most new horror films.”
Box Office Results: $40.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While it’s not the kind of horror hit often expected in the run-up to Halloween, this did about as well as it could have.

The Woman King

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. On paper, this sounds like just the kind of film the Academy would love to recognize. That it’s playing Toronto is a good sign.”
Oscar Results: Now None. The film managed to lay an egg with Oscar voters, but did decently with critics groups.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Viola Davis is a force to be reckoned with and she has a lot of fans. While the film looks great, it’s not certain it can cross-appeal very successfully to non-Black audiences.”
Box Office Results: $67.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A solid performance at the box office for a film that had a very narrow demographic reach.

September 23, 2022

Don’t Worry, Darling

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It’s playing Venice, which is a good sign, but the talent involved doesn’t quite scream Oscar contender. Yet, I still think it could be a player, especially for star Pugh and for the film’s production design.”
Oscar Results: Now None. The film’s generally poor reception from critics kept it out of the competition.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Audiences are looking for something unique and this most certainly scratches that itch. I suspect this could be a sleeper hit.”
Box Office Results: $45.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It was intended to be a hit, but unlike the 60s films of similar style, it wasn’t much of a success.

Catherine Called Birdy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Here’s yet another festival release, this one also playing Toronto. It’s also a good sign and the film, even if it’s not a major contender above the line, the costumes and sets could well be up for consideration and possibly too the screenplay.”
Oscar Results: Now none. Perhaps because it wasn’t farmed out as well as it should have been, the film didn’t even make a blip on the Oscar radar.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Lena Dunham is popular, but not popular enough to turn a period comedy into the winners circle at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: Released directly to Amazon Prime.

September 30, 2022

Bros

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It’s another Toronto player, but it feels a bit different than the prior ones mentioned. It’s a modern-set gay relationship comedy. That’s not exactly an Oscar recipe. Good reviews could help, but I expect the closest it will come to Oscar consideration is in the screenwriting category.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Gay comedies haven’t exactly been a commonplace release at the nationwide box office, so it’s not clear whether the film can play to large crowds without ramping up through a platform release.”
Box Office Results: $11.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] We may never see a truly successful gay-themed romcom on the big screen and this film’s failure won’t result in broader acceptance.

Smile

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s another pre-Halloween horror release and thi sone is close enough to Halloween that it might just benefit from an increased interest in such fair. It also looks a bit more unique than this month’s other horror release, so it could do a bit better, but I’m still not sure it can be a huge success.”
Box Office Results: $105.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] This was the unqualified hit of September, doing tremendous business at a time when horror was struggling to bring viewers back to the theater.