Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

October 7, 2022

Amsterdam

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It skipped the festival circuit, which isn’t a good sign and early reviews have been all over the place. I suspect that the film might end up skipped, though some craft category considerations might be possible.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The prospects of a David O. Russell film at the box office seems in direct proportion to its Oscar buzz…Joy barely had any and it didn’t do well whereas his prior films did and did great. So, since this one seems to be on the low end of Oscar expectations, so go the box office predictions.”
Box Office Results: $14.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While it had a starry cast, it was still a minor film in the grand scheme of things, but when the reviews came out, the film was destined for the rubbish bin of history.

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Youngsters just aren’t getting to the box office at the level they used to, which makes this film a tough sell. That said, it could still do well with the pandemic being declared over, even if it isn’t over.”
Box Office Results: $46.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While the books are quite popular, the film was less so and even with a big marquee singer in the title role, people just didn’t turn out.

Tár (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Cate Blanchett’s name is already being bandied about as a possible three-time Oscar winner for this. I’m not sure if I buy that buzz, but a nomination seems certain at this point.”
Oscar Results: Good. The film scored a handful of nominations, though it’s on track to win nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s been a long time since Todd Field released a film, so we don’t really have a viable comparison. That said, the film is said to be a bit odd even if good, so it should have niche success.”
Box Office Results: $6.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It’s always difficult for indies to do well at the box office, so this film doing better than average is a good sign.

October 14, 2022

Halloween Ends

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Halloween Kills released during the pandemic and did decently. This one should bounce upwards as it’s being billed as the last film in the series…though that’s doubtful.”
Box Office Results: $64.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Going out on a sour note, Halloween Ends proved to be decently popular, but unimpressive.

Till

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This is another film that skipped the festival circuit, though it is set for a release at the beginning of October at the New York Film Festival. Not quite as prestigious as the one-two-three punch of Telluride, Venice, and Toronto, but that could be helpful if the film was still being worked on. It has a lot of potential due to the subject matter, but we’ll have to see how critics like it.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations and it was surprising that it didn’t get even a nod for Danielle Deadwyler.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. As The Woman King proved, there is a market for well-made historical dramas. While the rah-rah nature of The Woman King isn’t a good fit for the horrific injustices being discussed in Till, it could still have a decent run at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] For a film that wanted to go wide, this is a terrible result. It’s decent for an indie, but that’s not what the film strived to be.

October 21, 2022

Black Adam

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The Oscars haven’t loved superhero movies and this looks like many others, which means its chances are probably weaker than more prominent efforts that look original.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Testing Dwayne Johnson’s drawing power, this film could very well make a lot more than I’ve predicted. Still, I want to be conservative because Johnson in a non-heroic role might turn some viewers off and DC has a lackluster history with recently releases.”
Box Office Results: $168.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Even by modern comic book standards, this number, while successful was underwhelming. Even Dwayne Johnson couldn’t goose the film’s prospects.

Ticket to Paradise

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Roberts and Clooney have been recognized for their dramatic work, but seldomly for their comedic work, which will likely work against the film.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Julia Roberts and George Clooney haven’t done romantic comedies in long enough that their box office potential cannot be adequately tested. Still, anything north of this prediction wouldn’t be surprising.”
Box Office Results: $68.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While Julia wasn’t at the top of her box office game, for a minor romantic comedy, the film did somewhat well at the box office.

The Banshees of Inisherin (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Early word out of the festivals has been ecstatic with Gleeson and Farrell both being singled out for praise and the film seems certain to score at least a writing nomination, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did far better than that.”
Oscar Results: Good. The film scored several Oscar nominations, but is on track to win one or fewer prizes.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Martin McDonagh’s films do decent box office business, but this seems like it will be a tough sell for some.”
Box Office Results: $10.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Although it underwhelmed my expectations, it’s still one of the better performing limited releases of the year.

My Policeman (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film hasn’t done terribly well with critics and it won’t do well at the box office, so its chances are dropping by the day.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Is Harry Styles popular enough to turn a limited release drama into a box office hit? It seems unlikely, especially when critics aren’t giving it the boost it would otherwise need.”
Box Office Results: $ M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Released directly to streaming.

Wendell and Wild (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. A nomination seems certain at this point unless the film is terrible, which I doubt. A win is another story. Although Disney/Pixar has been struggling to assert its chances this year, that allows Netflix, which has been chomping at the bit for a victory in this category for a few years now, may finally have the chance. Though losing to this film would be a most fascinating turn of events.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations, barely missing out on the fifth slot this year.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There aren’t a lot of frames of reference for Henry Selick’s films. The stop-motion genre has always severely underperformed its computer-animated rivals, which is disappointing, but the combination of animation and the Jordan Peele name might well turn this into a surprisingly big hit.”
Box Office Results: $ M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Released directly to streaming.

October 28, 2022

Prey for the Devil

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Exorcism films still do decently well at the box office even if they are a dime a dozen. While it won’t do huge business, it will likely do well enough to score a sequel.”
Box Office Results: $19.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A new franchise wasn’t born and with numbers like this, the marketing team has to be a little embarrassed.

Armageddon Time (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the film wasn’t terribly well received, some minor buzz emerged around Anne Hathaway and Jeremy Strong, but I suspect the film’s weaknesses may hinder their chances.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. James Gray isn’t a director who scores huge box office tallies, so don’t expect much from this one.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was a minor Oscar contender at best and with a cast like this, it probably should have done better, but it didn’t.

Call Jane (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Yet, they do well with Oscar voters sometimes. Especially in a world where the right to an abortion has been outlawed in many areas, the timely relevance of the film could be enough to bolster the film’s chances, but its festival run has been lackluster, so perhaps Sigourney Weaver is the only one with a shot at a nomination, especially when there are other abortion-related efforts releasing closer to the time when Oscar voters are paying attention.”
Oscar Results: Now none. The film scored zero Oscar nominations.
Box Office Prospects: $8 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. These kind of small period dramas don’t often do well with audiences.”
Box Office Results: $0.512 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A solid cast does not a box office hit make. The film never materialized as an Oscar contender and so its limited release was going to be a disappointment, but even this isn’t good.