Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

November 4, 2022

One Piece Film: Red

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Not every anime film can perform like the recent Dragon Ball movie. There is an upper limit around $30-35 Million, but many make less than half a million, so it’s impossible to know just how well this will perform. That said, its wide release will probably boost its chances, so I’m putting this one higher than I normally would, but not as high as some others.”
Box Office Results: $12.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] For an anime film, these numbers aren’t bad, but they aren’t exceptional numbers either.

Causeway (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film hasn’t built the kind of buzz you would expect on a Jennifer Lawrence film, so while she’s in the race, she’s on the periphery. The rest of the film isn’t likely to do much else.”
Oscar Results: Success. Brian Tyree Henry managed a nomination when the film was otherwise ignored.
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This isn’t the kind of film that does great box office, especially without a line to the Oscars, so I wouldn’t expect it to do better than mediocre indie numbers.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: This film was released directly to Apple TV+, so we don’t have box office figures.

November 11, 2022

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first film was a major box office player, picking up seven Oscar nominations and taking home three statuettes. Sequels are always an uncertain prospect and unless critics are over the moon about the film and it does superb box office numbers, I doubt it makes much of an dent in the Oscar race. That said, it could still pick up a handful of below the line craft nominations if nothing else.”
Oscar Results: Success. The film picked up a handful of nominations and while it came close to a win in Best Supporting Actress, the only prize it took away was Best Costume Design, becoming the first sequel to do so.
Box Office Prospects: $750 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The big question is whether this follow up to one of the highest grossing Marvel movies ever can grow its prior effort’s numbers without Chadwick Boseman. I still think it can. Everyone will be wanting to know who will take up the mantle of the Black Panther, so if it’s even remotely good, it should do well.”
Box Office Results: $453.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t quite reach the expected heights set by its predecessor, the tally is still a pretty high figure for the MCU.

The Fabelmans (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film built strong buzz out of the festivals, going so far as to earn the coveted People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Nearly all of the recent winners there have gone on to strong performances at the Oscars. While he’s managed ten nominations since he last won an Oscar for directing Saving Private Ryan, that was over a span of 23 years. There may be a clamoring to honor him with a third directing trophy to set his career apart from many of his contemporaries, but there might be some decent competition standing in his way.”
Oscar Results: Unexceptional. While the film managed to pull off a strong number of nominations, its went home empty-handed.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There was a time when a Steven Spielberg feature could pull in strong returns at the box office. His smaller films tend to do smaller numbers, but as Lincoln proved, even those films can do rack up big numbers. West Side Story may well have been a blip since musicals seem to have cratered in recent years. This film has more potential because it will be an Oscar player. Unfortunately, I can’t imagine it topping $100 million or coming even remotely close.”
Box Office Results: $17.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Spielberg has struggled to get butts in seats for a few years now and while he occasionally has some success, his last two high profile efforts (this and West Side Story didn’t do all that well.

The Son (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Zeller’s The Father did quite well at the Oscars, pulling in six Oscar nominations, which was a better performance than many had thought possible. The Son is shooting for a similar reception, but its buzz is lackluster. While there’s talk of a Hugh Jackman nomination, the rest of the film seems to be struggling to make a case for itself.”
Oscar Results: Flop. The film’s critical consensus was dire and the film faded rather quickly.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Florian Zeller’s previous film, The Father, failed to ignite the box office and pulled in a scant $2 million. I don’t expect this film to do as well since the buzz surrounding the film is a bit more muted than his previous.”
Box Office Results: $0.45 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Release date shifted into January. Not covered then.

November 18, 2022

She Said

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The aforementioned three films all received Oscar nominations, but to varying degrees. Spotlight won Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay out of the six nominations it received; The Post only picked up two citations, including Best Picture; and Bombshell only secured three nominations, but nothing in the top race, taking home the award for Makeup & Hairstyling. What all three films do have in common is acting nominations. Mark Ruffalo and Rachel McAdams from Spotlight; Meryl Streep from The Post; and Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. That’s a good sign for She Said‘s Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan. While Kazan’s chances are probably the weakest, Mulligan’s near miss for Promising Young Woman probably means she’s going to get a nomination and could even win. The film itself, depending on how well it’s received overall, could end up in the Best Picture race as well as others.”
Oscar Results: Flop. The film had solid support from critics, but didn’t pick up much in the way of precursor citations, which ultimately led to it being completely ignored by the Academy even if deserving of recognition.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Recent years have seen an increase of major productions dealing with major breaking stories or prominent newspapers digging into big news stories. Spotlight, The Post, and Bombshell are all interesting examples. While The Post had the Spielberg name to vaunt it to box office highs, the other two didn’t and they ultimately performed more modestly with Oscar-winning Best Picture Spotlight pulling in $45 million. That seems to be the film most similar to She Said in terms of box office potential and probably for Oscar potential.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Journalism films aren’t box office draws, at least they haven’t been since politics became so heavily polarized. This number still seems a bit anemic and its failure to garner significant awards attention may have hurt its chances.

November 23, 2022

Bones and All

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. This is just not the kind of film the Academy likes to recognize even though it features Oscar-nominated Call Me by Your Name alums Luca Guadagnino and Timothée Chalamet. Throw in two more past Oscar nominees (Chloë Sevigny and Mark Rylance) and you have a film that would sound like it would have potential, but it’s about cannibals. It’s just not Oscar friendly no matter how good it is.”
Oscar Results: Flop. While there was some early chatter about a supporting nomination, the film ultimately came away with nothing.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Other than curiosity, I can’t imagine this becoming a huge box office success. Right now, it’s listed as opening wide, but I highly doubt that. Building buzz is the only way this movie’s going to do great business.”
Box Office Results: $7.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It’s hard to say what was expected with a film like this. It was odd enough that it wasn’t going to be huge, but it had enough indie cachet that it might have performed better in better circumstances.

Devotion

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I’m sure there’s some reason why a film about a fighter pilot would be making a release this year, but certainly they can’t hope for a similar reception as Top Gun. The film doesn’t feel like a broadly appealing film, but stranger things have happened. While it has historical significance, I’m not predicting a huge return on this one.”
Box Office Results: $20.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] In the wake of Top Gun: Maverick, a lot of films hoped to building into modest hits, but this one didn’t quite manage to succeed. The numbers aren’t bad considering what was positioned around it, but it was otherwise not terribly impressive.

Strange World

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s hard to say after the debacle of Lightyear if Disney can work its magic with Oscar voters this year? Since it’s also unclear whether Turning Red made the eligibility requirements (we’ll find out when shortlists are announced later this year), this may well be its only shot at an Oscar nomination. Unless it’s Good Dinosaur bad, it’s probably going to land the nomination. An Oscar is decreasingly unlikely at this juncture.”
Oscar Results: Flop. The film didn’t get a lot of critical support and did poorly at the box office, allowing other films to overcome its Oscar positioning.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Disney knows how to make movies that are broadly appealing, though you wouldn’t know that from the past year at the box office for their animated offerings. Still, this is an original property and appears to be more kid-friendly than prior efforts, so it could be their return to grace. That said, they’ve cannibalized their own audiences by releasing so much direct to their streaming service. They may well have destroyed their own industry as a result.”
Box Office Results: $37.97 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A colossal flop for Disney who hasn’t had much success at the box office lately. They used to be one of the most dominant animation studios, but ever since they started releasing their animated films to Disney+ at the beginning of the pandemic, they’ve seen their big screen prospects dry up. Can that be reversed? Who knows, but this wasn’t the film to do it.

White Noise (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film didn’t have a good festival run and has largely disappeared from the conversation. While it could still pick up a couple of mentions, it seems decreasingly likely with each passing day. Only the critics groups’ nominations can save it now.”
Oscar Results: Flop. The film got mild support, but got did poorly with the precursors and ultimately failed to score a single Oscar nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Noah Baumbach just doesn’t have power at the box office. Even his most celebrated directorial efforts have done less than $8 million in business with most under $5 million. His two big hits were his major Oscar player The Squid and the Whale and his does-anyone-remember-it While We Were Young. Both made over $7 million, but everything else was less that, many far less than that, in the sub-$1 million range. Don’t expect a lot. It’s doubtful he comes close to his best efforts at this point.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: It was released on Netflix streaming, so has no box office information.