Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

November 4, 2022

One Piece Film: Red

Premise: From IMDb: “For the first time ever, Uta – the most beloved singer in the world – will reveal herself to the world at a live concert. The voice that the whole world has been waiting for is about to resound.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Not every anime film can perform like the recent Dragon Ball movie. There is an upper limit around $30-35 Million, but many make less than half a million, so it’s impossible to know just how well this will perform. That said, its wide release will probably boost its chances, so I’m putting this one higher than I normally would, but not as high as some others.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Causeway (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.”
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Expectations: Weak. This isn’t the kind of film that does great box office, especially without a line to the Oscars, so I wouldn’t expect it to do better than mediocre indie numbers.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The film hasn’t built the kind of buzz you would expect on a Jennifer Lawrence film, so while she’s in the race, she’s on the periphery. The rest of the film isn’t likely to do much else.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

November 11, 2022

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Premise: From IMDb: “The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.”
Box Office Prospects: $750 M
Expectations: Excellent. The big question is whether this follow up to one of the highest grossing Marvel movies ever can grow its prior effort’s numbers without Chadwick Boseman. I still think it can. Everyone will be wanting to know who will take up the mantle of the Black Panther, so if it’s even remotely good, it should do well.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The first film was a major box office player, picking up seven Oscar nominations and taking home three statuettes. Sequels are always an uncertain prospect and unless critics are over the moon about the film and it does superb box office numbers, I doubt it makes much of an dent in the Oscar race. That said, it could still pick up a handful of below the line craft nominations if nothing else.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

The Fabelmans (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Growing up in post-World War II era Arizona, a young man named Sammy Fabelman discovers a shattering family secret and explores how the power of films can help him see the truth.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There was a time when a Steven Spielberg feature could pull in strong returns at the box office. His smaller films tend to do smaller numbers, but as Lincoln proved, even those films can do rack up big numbers. West Side Story may well have been a blip since musicals seem to have cratered in recent years. This film has more potential because it will be an Oscar player. Unfortunately, I can’t imagine it topping $100 million or coming even remotely close.
Oscar Prospects: Good. The film built strong buzz out of the festivals, going so far as to earn the coveted People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Nearly all of the recent winners there have gone on to strong performances at the Oscars. While he’s managed ten nominations since he last won an Oscar for directing Saving Private Ryan, that was over a span of 23 years. There may be a clamoring to honor him with a third directing trophy to set his career apart from many of his contemporaries, but there might be some decent competition standing in his way.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

The Son (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Weak. Florian Zeller’s previous film, The Father, failed to ignite the box office and pulled in a scant $2 million. I don’t expect this film to do as well since the buzz surrounding the film is a bit more muted than his previous.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Zeller’s The Father did quite well at the Oscars, pulling in six Oscar nominations, which was a better performance than many had thought possible. The Son is shooting for a similar reception, but its buzz is lackluster. While there’s talk of a Hugh Jackman nomination, the rest of the film seems to be struggling to make a case for itself.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

November 18, 2022

She Said

Premise: From IMDb: “New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation — a story that helped launch the #MeToo movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Recent years have seen an increase of major productions dealing with major breaking stories or prominent newspapers digging into big news stories. Spotlight, The Post, and Bombshell are all interesting examples. While The Post had the Spielberg name to vaunt it to box office highs, the other two didn’t and they ultimately performed more modestly with Oscar-winning Best Picture Spotlight pulling in $45 million. That seems to be the film most similar to She Said in terms of box office potential and probably for Oscar potential.
Oscar Prospects: Good. The aforementioned three films all received Oscar nominations, but to varying degrees. Spotlight won Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay out of the six nominations it received; The Post only picked up two citations, including Best Picture; and Bombshell only secured three nominations, but nothing in the top race, taking home the award for Makeup & Hairstyling. What all three films do have in common is acting nominations. Mark Ruffalo and Rachel McAdams from Spotlight; Meryl Streep from The Post; and Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. That’s a good sign for She Said‘s Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan. While Kazan’s chances are probably the weakest, Mulligan’s near miss for Promising Young Woman probably means she’s going to get a nomination and could even win. The film itself, depending on how well it’s received overall, could end up in the Best Picture race as well as others.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

November 23, 2022

Bones and All

Premise: From IMDb: “Maren, a young woman, learns how to survive on the margins of society.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Other than curiosity, I can’t imagine this becoming a huge box office success. Right now, it’s listed as opening wide, but I highly doubt that. Building buzz is the only way this movie’s going to do great business.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. This is just not the kind of film the Academy likes to recognize even though it features Oscar-nominated Call Me by Your Name alums Luca Guadagnino and Timothée Chalamet. Throw in two more past Oscar nominees (Chloë Sevigny and Mark Rylance) and you have a film that would sound like it would have potential, but it’s about cannibals. It’s just not Oscar friendly no matter how good it is.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Devotion

Premise: From IMDb: “A pair of U.S. Navy fighter pilots risk their lives during the Korean War and become some of the Navy’s most celebrated wingmen.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. I’m sure there’s some reason why a film about a fighter pilot would be making a release this year, but certainly they can’t hope for a similar reception as Top Gun. The film doesn’t feel like a broadly appealing film, but stranger things have happened. While it has historical significance, I’m not predicting a huge return on this one.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Strange World

Premise: From IMDb: “The legendary Clades are a family of explorers whose differences threatened to topple their latest and most crucial mission.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Good. Disney knows how to make movies that are broadly appealing, though you wouldn’t know that from the past year at the box office for their animated offerings. Still, this is an original property and appears to be more kid-friendly than prior efforts, so it could be their return to grace. That said, they’ve cannibalized their own audiences by releasing so much direct to their streaming service. They may well have destroyed their own industry as a result.
Oscar Prospects: Good. It’s hard to say after the debacle of Lightyear if Disney can work its magic with Oscar voters this year? Since it’s also unclear whether Turning Red made the eligibility requirements (we’ll find out when shortlists are announced later this year), this may well be its only shot at an Oscar nomination. Unless it’s Good Dinosaur bad, it’s probably going to land the nomination. An Oscar is decreasingly unlikely at this juncture.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

White Noise (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “White Noise dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world.”
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Noah Baumbach just doesn’t have power at the box office. Even his most celebrated directorial efforts have done less than $8 million in business with most under $5 million. His two big hits were his major Oscar player The Squid and the Whale and his does-anyone-remember-it While We Were Young. Both made over $7 million, but everything else was less that, many far less than that, in the sub-$1 million range. Don’t expect a lot. It’s doubtful he comes close to his best efforts at this point.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The film didn’t have a good festival run and has largely disappeared from the conversation. While it could still pick up a couple of mentions, it seems decreasingly likely with each passing day. Only the critics groups’ nominations can save it now.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.