As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

There’s very little overlap with our first-of-the-year predictions, but these are the films and performances we currently see as potential contenders this year.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: A lot of my choices are for films that haven’t been scheduled for this year or which still might find themselves booted to 2023. I put an emphasis on diversity, hoping that this year will be a little more broadly appealing than the last two.
Peter J. Patrick: At this point, this is pure speculation, but here goes…
Tripp Burton: (no initial predictions provided)
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Picture

• Amsterdam New WL O
• Babylon New WL O New PP O New TL O
• The Banshees of Inisherin New PP O
• Bardo New TL O
• Cha Cha Real Smooth New TL O
• Elvis New TL O
• Empire of Light New WL O New TL O
• The Fabelmans New PP O New TL O
• Killers of the Flower Moon New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Lightyear New WL O
• Poor Things New PP O
• Rustin New WL O New PP O
• She Said New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Shirley New WL O
• The Son New PP O New TL O
• Thirteen Lives New WL O
• White Noise New PP O
• The Woman King New WL O
• Women Talking New PP O New TL O

Best Director

• Amsterdam – David O. Russell New WL O
• Babylon – Damien Chazelle New WL O New PP O
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh New PP O
• Bardo – Alejandro G. Inarritu New TL O
• Empire of Light – Sam Mendes New TL O
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg New PP O New TL O
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Shirley – John Ridley New WL O
• The Son – Florian Zeller New PP O New TL O
• The Woman King – Gina Prince-Bythewood New WL O

Best Actor

• Austin Butler – Elvis New WL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon New TL O
• Colman Domingo – Rustin New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Adam Driver – White Noise New TL O
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin New PP O
• Brendan Fraser – Whale New PP O New TL O
• Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto New WL O
• Hugh Jackman – The Son New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Brad Pitt – Babylon New WL O
• Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon New PP O

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Tar New TL O
• Olivia Colman – Empire of Light New WL O New PP O
• Viola Davis – The Woman King New WL O New TL O
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till New PP O New TL O
• Regina King – Shirley New WL O New PP O
• Helen Mirren – Golda New PP O
• Carey Mulligan – She Said New WL O New TL O
• Margot Robbie – Babylon New WL O
• Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande New TL O
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once New PP O

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe – Poor Things New PP O
• Paul Dano – The Fabelmans New PP O New TL O
• Robert De Niro – Amsterdam New WL O
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon New TL O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon New PP O
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin New WL O
• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin New PP O
• Tom Hanks – Elvis New WL O
• Toby Jones – Empire of Light New WL O
• Tobey Maguire – Babylon New TL O
• Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon New WL O
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things New TL O
• Glynn Turman – Rustin New PP O New TL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Gillian Anderson – White Bird: A Wonder Story New WL O
• Jessie Buckley – Women Talking New TL O
• Patricia Clarkson – She Said New WL O New TL O
• Laura Dern – The Son New WL O New PP O
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon New PP O New TL O
• Samantha Morton – She Said New PP O
• CCH Pounder – Rustin New WL O
• Margot Robbie – Babylon New TL O
• Emma Thompson – Matilda New PP O
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans New WL O New PP O New TL O