Heading into the festival triple threat that is Telluride/Toronto/Venice, Oscar season will soon be kicking into high gear. We take one last look at our predictions before the sense of inevitability that these festivals will stamp onto some of the races.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: The summer didn’t bring much in the way of clarification for this year’s Oscar race, but the upcoming film festivals hold some promise. I’ve updated the list to exclude most films that may have been pushed out and some that have been scheduled. It’s still a bit too early to tell how things will go, but things should start coalescing soon.
Peter J. Patrick: Things are becoming a little more focused…
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: So much is still to be determined as we wait for the big festivals. A number of films will premiere at them and then we will have a better idea of the races. There have been only three films released so far that seem like they might get picture, acting, or writing nominations, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, which had to ask permission to be included as it was originally released on Hulu. The Fabelmans, TAR, and Bardo have the most early buzz and it will be interesting to see if they keep that. Women Talking, Babylon, and The Son boast large casts which might do well. The Son is directed by Florian Zeller from his own play, which he did to great success with The Father. Perhaps lightning can strike twice. The Whale brings Brendan Fraser back to the screen in what is supposed to be a career defining performance which may get him a nomination. It is starting to get interesting out there.

Best Picture

• Amsterdam WL O New PP A
• Avatar: The Way of Water New TB A
• Babylon WL O New TB A TL O
• The Banshees of Inisherin New WL A PP O
• Bardo New TB A TL O
• Elvis TL O
• Empire of Light WL O New TB A
• Everything Everywhere All at Once New PP A New TB A New TL A
• The Fabelmans New WL A PP O New TB A TL O
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever New WL A
• She Said WL O PP O New TB A TL O
• Shirley WL O
• The Son New WL A PP O New TB A TL O
• TAR New PP A New TL A
• Till New TB A
• Triangle of Sadness New TL A
• The Whale New PP A
• White Noise PP O New TB A
• The Woman King WL O
• Women Talking PP O TL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Bad Guys New WL O
• Charlotte New WL O
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Lightyear New PP O New TL O
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On New PP O New TB O
• The Sea Beast New TB O
• Strange World New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Turning Red New WL O New TB O New TL O
• Wendell & Wild New WL O New PP O New TL O

Best Director

• Amsterdam – David O. Russell WL O
• Babylon – Damien Chazelle WL O New TB A
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh PP O
• Bardo – Alejandro G. Inarritu TL O
• Broker – Hirokazu Kore-eda New TB A
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels New TB A
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg New WL A PP O New TB A TL O
• Shirley – John Ridley WL O
• The Son – Florian Zeller PP O TL O
• TAR – Todd Field New PP A New TL A
• Till – Chinoye Chukwu New TB A
• White Noise – Noah Baumbach New PP A
• The Woman King – Gina Prince-Bythewood WL O
• Women Talking – Sarah Polley New TL A

Best Actor

• Austin Butler – Elvis New TB A New TL A
• Adam Driver – White Noise New PP A
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin New WL A PP O
• Colin Firth – Empire of Light New TB A
• Brendan Fraser – Whale New WL A PP O TL O
• Daniel Gemenez Cacho – Bardo New TL A
• Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto WL O
• Hugh Jackman – The Son WL O PP O New TB A TL O
• Bill Nighy – Living New PP A New TB A New TL A
• Brad Pitt – Babylon WL O
• Song Kang-ho – Broker New TB A

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Tar New PP A New TB A TL O
• Olivia Colman – Empire of Light WL O New TB A
• Viola Davis – The Woman King WL O TL O
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till PP O New TB A TL O
• Zoe Kazan – She Said New WL A
• Regina King – Shirley WL O
• Carey Mulligan – She Said New PP A New TB A
• Margot Robbie – Babylon WL O
• Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande New PP A TL O
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once PP O New TB A New TL A

Best Supporting Actor

• Don Cheadle – White Noise New PP A New TB A New TL A
• Paul Dano – The Fabelmans PP O New TB A TL O
• Robert De Niro – Amsterdam WL O
• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin New WL A PP O New TL A
• Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness New TB A New TL A
• Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time New TB A
• Anthony Hopkins – The Son New WL A
• Toby Jones – Empire of Light WL O
• Zen McGrath – The Son New PP A
• Brad Pitt – Babylon New TB A
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once New TL A
• Mark Strong – TAR New PP A
• Ben Whishaw – Women Talking New WL A

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever New PP A
• Jessie Buckley – Women Talking New PP A TL O
• Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness New TL A
• Laura Dern – The Son WL O
• Jennifer Ehle – She Said New TB A
• Whoopi Goldberg – Till New WL A New TB A
• Zoe Kazan – Women Talking New PP A
• Vanessa Kirby – The Son New PP A New TB A New TL A
• Carey Mulligan – She Said New WL A
• Jean Smart – Babylon New TB A New TL A
• Anya Taylor-Joy – Amsterdam New WL A
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans WL O PP O New TB A TL O

Best Original Screenplay

• Amsterdam New WL O New PP O
• Babylon New WL O New TB O
• The Banshees of Inisherin New WL O
• Bardo New TL O
• Empire of Light New WL O
• Everything Everywhere All at Once New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Fabelmans New PP O New TB O New TL O
• TAR New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Till New PP O New TB O
• Triangle of Sadness New TL O
• The Woman King New WL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin New PP O New TL O
• Catherine Called Birdy New WL O
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery New TB O
• My Policeman New WL O
• Poor Things New WL O
• She Said New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Son New PP O New TB O New TL O
• White Noise New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Women Talking New PP O New TB O New TL O